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- Business
- Business of Fashion
Is the Secondary Watch Market Turning a Corner?
Amid the doom and gloom of luxury watch sales, a bright spot? After three years of continuous decline, prices of pre-owned watches appear to have bottomed out. And with prices of new watches still rising, second-hand retailers are now eyeing an uptick in sales.
It may already be happening. In its annual report, published last month, Richemont cited 'double-digit growth' at its specialist pre-owned watch retailer WatchFinder. The group doesn't report on the individual performance of its units, but revenues in its 'Other' category, which includes WatchFinder, were said to be up 7 percent year-on-year.
'We've had a very good year,' said Arjen van de Vall, WatchFinder's chief executive, noting that increased revenues had been driven by volumes rather than values. 'You need to sell more watches than before because average prices have been going down,' he said. 'We have seen volumes higher than before, with very significant double-digit growth.'
The pre-owned luxury watch market has fluctuated wildly over the past five years. During the pandemic, prices skyrocketed as consumers with few spending outlets speculated on watch values. By the spring of 2022, secondary market values of some of the most desirable models from brands such as Rolex and Audemars Piguet had more than doubled as demand outstripped supply.
But since then, the global economy has hit serious turbulence, taking with it buyer confidence and costing some speculators huge sums as prices tumbled. Data gathered by WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley shows 12 consecutive quarters of price declines through the first quarter of 2025.
And yet, in the latest numbers, there are some signs of stabilisation. In their most recent market report, published in April, WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley's price tracker recorded a drop of just 0.4 percent in the first quarter of this year, the smallest decline in three years.
Pricing consistency appears to have returned some consumer confidence, while frustration at price increases of new watches is accelerating a shift towards pre-owned.
'We have already seen an increase in sales volume for many brands in the secondary market, particularly those that trade at a significant discount to retail,' said Charles Tian, founder and chief executive of WatchCharts. 'We believe this is in part caused by a displacement of retail demand, as consumers are becoming more aware of residual value and choosing to buy pre-owned for the value proposition.'
Carsten Keller, chief executive of the German online watch marketplace Chrono24 said the current climate could play into the hands of secondary sellers. 'If new tariffs kick in, we expect price hikes in new watches to ripple directly into the pre-owned market,' he said.
Independent data indicated growing interest in pre-owned luxury watches. In December, Deloitte's pre-owned market report suggested global consumer interest in buying pre-owned has doubled since 2020, with a record 49 percent of buyers saying they were motivated by finding watches more cheaply.
Research by the Geneva-based Digital Luxury Group showed global searches for pre-owned luxury, across all categories, increased 21 percent year-on-year to 19.6 million in 2024, with watch and jewellery searches outperforming fashion, recording a 26.3 percent increase in interest to fashion's 11.5 percent.
Renewed focus could mark the beginning of another new chapter for the pre-owned market. Two decades ago, 'secondhand' was a dirty word and brands and retailers gave the secondary market short shrift. Fast forward to today and with many of those same brands and retailers now heavily invested in the sector, analysts forecast the secondary market could soon catch up to the primary market in terms of sales.
According to a report published by Cognitive Market Research in March, sales of secondary market watches in 2024 rose around 10 percent year-on-year to $26.8 billion, a figure expected to increase to $43.7 billion by 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of 7.2 percent over the period. Calculations vary, but Custom Market Insights valued the primary luxury watch market at $46.3 billion in 2024.
Some analysts believe the current downturn in luxury demand will be good for the pre-owned watch market. 'The more uncertain the market evolution is on the sales of new watches, the more the secondary market will be attractive for clients in search of immediate availability and potentially also discounts,' said Oliver Müller, founder of the specialist luxury watch consultancy LuxeConsult.
One US outlet with booming second-hand sales figures said his customers were mainly driven by primary market pricing fatigue. Douglas Kaplan, chief commercial officer of Bob's Watches, which has been specialising in pre-owned Rolex since 1999 and claims to have revenues of more than $100 million a year, said his company's year-to-date sales receipts were up 25 percent. 'Brands are raising prices [of new watches], but buyers are not sure what value they're getting for the increase,' he said.
Soaring gold prices could stimulate pre-owned market growth, too. 'Exploding gold prices are sending the prices [of new gold watches] to crazy high levels,' said Müller. 'Prices for gold watches will keep climbing in the foreseeable future, and so the secondary market might offer attractive alternatives.'
But Keller of Chrono24 said he had not yet observed a shift. 'We see no impact of soaring gold prices on the demand for pre-owned gold watches,' he said. 'Buyer interest and listings for gold models on our platform are stable, underlining that brand appeal and market sentiment matter way more than raw material costs.'
Van de Vall of WatchFinder agreed. 'We haven't seen a dramatic uplift,' he said. 'People bringing purchases forward would be on new, so the impact for us will be downstream.'
But Keller did suggest there would be long-term benefits. 'Rising gold prices will further reinforce the perception of gold watches as a desirable asset with lasting value,' he said.
Heat in the pre-owned market is likely to drive brands into the sector as they look to claim back revenues lost in the primary market. Rolex and some of its largest retail partners launched the Rolex Certified Pre-Owned (RCPO) programme in late 2022. Estimates by WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley point to Q1 2025 RCPO sales of $100 million.
'This was a fundamental change to the market,' said Brian Duffy, chief executive of the Watches of Switzerland Group, which recently opened a Rolex boutique on Bond Street that gives over a whole floor to RCPO. 'Quite rightly, people were concerned about shopping online and about authenticity — might a watch have been stolen, or was it a fake. But now you can get a Rolex from an authorised retailer that's been certified and guaranteed by Rolex, and this has introduced a new clientele, which has been very positive.'
Richard Mille, one of the most in-demand watch brands, has also entered the secondary market and has been selling pre-owned models through its Ninety concept stores in London and Geneva, while other smaller independents such as H. Moser & Cie. and Linde Werdelin have also dabbled in certified pre-owned. Audemars Piguet is understood to be preparing to launch its own pre-owned channel later this year, too, but declined to confirm this.
Duffy said Rolex's programme had helped build buyer trust, while also giving access to either so-called 'grail watches,' that is highly desirable discontinued models, or unavailable watches from the current Rolex collection that are sold at a premium. 'Our plan 18 months ago was that Rolex CPO would be 20 percent of Rolex new in the US and 10 percent in the UK,' he said. 'We're on track for that and we've upped our UK target to 15 percent,' Duffy added.
Duffy said he expected more brands to enter the secondary market as its importance increased. 'We know brands are advanced on developing their own programmes,' he said. 'There was a lot of discomfort with an unregulated secondary market. Brands have spent a lot of time improving credibility, but they were seeing it diluted by pre-owned, so I understand the motivation.'
The challenge for brands could become cannibalisation. 'For some, pre-owned is becoming competition for their own brands at new,' said van de Vall.
But Kaplan said brand certification added cost some buyers weren't prepared to pay. 'People focus on the product,' he said, noting that the average price of a watch sold on Bob's Watches was around $11,000 to $12,000. 'They're more sensitive on price, value and trust than they are on official certification.' For a fee, Bob's Watches offers an additional level of certification if buyers want it.
One of the appeals of the pre-owned market is that prices are more likely to be driven by consumer sentiment rather than brands. 'There's pricing transparency that makes pricing more democratic,' said van de Vall. 'People decide what's for them.'
For now, sellers' forecasts remained cautious. 'We have to follow the market,' said Kaplan. 'In general, milk and break haven't gotten cheaper. There's room for growth again in pricing, but not as rapidly.'
Van de Vall said there would be few fluctuations in the pre-owned market this year. 'Stability and predictability are good,' he said. 'I don't believe there's going to be another big spike.'
And for buyers, once bitten, twice shy. 'Much of the market bubble until 2022 was caused by dealers hoarding inventory, and consumers being sold on the idea that watches were an appreciating asset and smart investment,' said Tian of WatchCharts. 'But now, consumer appetite for market speculation is extremely low. Many people have lost a lot of money the past few years.'
