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Time of India
22-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India's trade, energy outlook favourable amid global tariff volatility: Report
New Delhi: India is poised to benefit from global supply chain diversification and energy transition trends amid heightened trade volatility following the United States' imposition of steep tariffs on imports from China and other key economies, according to a report by Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. (ACMIIL), a Pantomath Group Company. The report, titled Markets 'TARIFF'IED – Way Ahead, noted that India's demographic advantage, low export dependency, and growing renewable energy infrastructure make it a natural alternative for global manufacturers seeking tariff-neutral geographies. India's merchandise exports to the U.S. account for only 2.1% of its GDP, insulating it from external shocks compared to other export-heavy economies. India's reciprocal tariffs of 26% are moderate in comparison to the U.S.'s 145% hike on Chinese imports, improving its attractiveness as a trading partner. The report also noted that India is in advanced stages of finalizing a bilateral trade agreement with the U.S., aimed at facilitating zero-duty imports under India's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and pushing bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. In the energy sector, the report highlighted India's progress toward its 2030 target of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity. As of January 2025, the country's total installed capacity reached 466.26 GW, comprising 100.33 GW from solar and 48.37 GW from wind. The expansion of solar and wind energy has spurred investment in transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure and grid modernization. The Union Budget for 2025–26 allocated ₹11.21 lakh crore—or 3.1% of GDP—for capital expenditure, with significant allocations to power, railways, and digital infrastructure. The report projected that this would support further growth in sectors tied to energy and infrastructure development. The report also projected India's GDP growth at 6.5% in FY26, supported by macroeconomic stability and a fiscal deficit expected to reduce to 4.9% in FY25. A more accommodative stance from the Reserve Bank of India and anticipated repo rate cuts are expected to encourage private investment. On the sectoral front, ACMIIL identified high-conviction investment opportunities in banking, consumption, defense, capital goods, data centers, healthcare, and infrastructure. The defense sector received a budget of ₹6.81 lakh crore for FY26, including ₹1.8 lakh crore in capital expenditure, with 75% reserved for domestic procurement. India's data center capacity reached approximately 1,150 MW as of December 2024 and is expected to attract ₹50,000 crore in investment by 2026. Mobile data traffic grew at a 25% CAGR over the past five years, reaching 24 GB per user per month in FY24, and is expected to reach 33–35 GB by FY26. The hospital sector is projected to see a 32% increase in bed capacity by FY27, with expansion focused on Tier 2 and smaller cities. The capital goods and engineering sectors are expected to benefit from Make in India, rising domestic investment, and global supply chain shifts.
Hans India
21-04-2025
- Business
- Hans India
India close to finalising comprehensive bilateral trade deal with US
Mumbai: India is close to finalising a comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the US, which is expected to facilitate zero-duty imports under the production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes and enhance bilateral trade, targeted to reach $500 billion by 2030, according to a report released on Monday. As United States Vice President J.D. Vance, accompanied by his family, arrived in India, the report further mentioned that the BTA also opens pathways for high-end US tech imports in defence, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. Despite the global upheaval, India's consumption-driven economy, demographic dividend, and relatively low export dependency position it favourably, said the report by Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd (ACMIIL), a Pantomath Group company. With merchandise exports to the US accounting for only 2.1 per cent of India's GDP, the country is less vulnerable to external shocks compared to other export-heavy economies. The report underscores India's potential to benefit from supply chain diversification, especially as the US imposes steep tariffs on Chinese imports. 'India's 26 per cent reciprocal tariff is moderate in comparison, improving its appeal as a manufacturing and trading partner,' the report mentioned. India's economic resilience is underscored by strong macro fundamentals, with a projected GDP growth of 6.5 per cent for FY26 and a commitment to fiscal prudence as the fiscal deficit is expected to reduce to 4.9 per cent in FY25. The Reserve Bank of India has shifted towards a more accommodative monetary stance, with anticipated repo rate cuts expected to stimulate private investment. According to the report, a key structural advantage lies in India's demographics — 51 per cent of the population is under 40, driving consumption, with Gen Z and millennials emerging as the primary spenders. On the market front, technical and valuation indicators point toward a bottoming out, creating conditions conducive for medium- to long-term equity outperformance. The government's policy support, including the 'Make in India' initiative and a focus on ease of doing business, continues to strengthen various sectors, the report noted.
