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Nahar Net
2 hours ago
- Business
- Nahar Net
Oil prices flip-flop, US stocks drift as markets await Iran response to US strike
by Naharnet Newsdesk 23 June 2025, 11:46 The United States' bunker-busting entry into Israel's war with Iran is having only a modest effect on the price of oil and stock markets worldwide Monday, at least for now. The hope is that Iran won't retaliate in a way that disrupts the global flow of crude, which would hurt economies worldwide but also its own. The S&P 500 was edging down by 0.1% in early trading, coming off a week where stock prices had jumped up and down on worries about the conflict potentially escalating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 37 points, or 0.1%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.4% lower. The price of oil did jump 4% shortly after trading began on Sunday night, but it quickly pared back as the focus shifted from what the U.S. military did to how Iran would react. By Monday morning, the price of a benchmark barrel of U.S. oil was up 0.4% at $74.16 after briefly dipping to a loss. Brent crude, the international standard, edged up by 0.2% to $77.17 per barrel. They still remain higher than they were before the fighting began a little more than a week ago, when a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude was close to $68. The fear is that a worsening war could squeeze the world's supply of oil, which would pump up prices for it, gasoline and other products refined from crude. Not only is Iran a major producer of crude, it could also try to block access to the Strait of Hormuz off its coast. Much of the world's oil passes through the strait each day on ships. The calming in the oil market came as several analysts said Iran would likely refrain from closing the waterway. Iran itself uses the strait to move its own crude, mostly to China, and it needs the revenue made from such sales of oil. "It's a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move," said Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co. "It's not probable." Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan, said hope remains that the Israel-Iran war could be a short conflict, with the thinking being "the one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we'll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction." Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a disruption to traffic through the strait by Iran would be "economic suicide" and would elicit a U.S. response. When asked about that at a routine briefing in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters that "China is willing to strengthen communication with Iran and relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role in promoting de-escalation" of the conflict. "The Persian Gulf and its adjacent waters are important international channels for cargo and energy trade. Maintaining security and stability in this region serves the common interests of the international community," he said. Of course, not everyone is sure about Iran's next move. Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst covering oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and that he wouldn't be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons. "If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel," said Lipow, predicting that that would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways. "It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates." The Federal Reserve has been hesitant to lower interest rates, and it's been on hold this year after cutting at the end of last year, because it's waiting to see how much President Donald Trump's tariffs will hurt the economy and raise inflation. Inflation has remained relatively tame recently, and it's near the Fed's target of 2%. A continued rise in oil and gasoline prices would put upward pressure on inflation. That in turn could keep the Fed on hold because cuts to rates can fan inflation higher, along with giving the economy a boost. In the bond market, Treasury yields eased a little as hopes continue that the Fed may cut interest rates later this year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.34% from 4.38% late Friday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell more modestly to 3.89% from 3.90%. In stock markets abroad, indexes fell modestly across Europe after finishing mixed in Asia. France's CAC 40 fell 1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.7% for two of the world's bigger moves.
Chicago Tribune
4 hours ago
- Business
- Chicago Tribune
Oil flip-flops and shares are mixed after the US strikes Iranian nuclear sites
BANGKOK — Global markets appeared to take the U.S. strike against nuclear targets in Iran in stride as investors watched Monday to see how Iran will react. The price of oil initially jumped more than 2%, fell and then regained about half that much. U.S. stock futures edged lower and share benchmarks in Europe and Asia also were mostly lower. The attacks on three Iranian sites raised the stakes in the war between Israel and Iran and left questions about what remains of Tehran's nuclear program. It also increased the possibility that Iran might retaliate, potentially disrupting shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which much of the world's crude oil passes. The big unknown is what Iran will do, analysts said. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, was up 1.2% at $77.91 per barrel. U.S. benchmark crude climbed 1.3% to $74.79. The future for the S&P 500 was little changed, while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1%. Treasury yields were steady. In Europe, Germany's DAX lost 0.5% to 23,230.54 and the CAC 40 in Paris fell 0.6% to 7,541.25. Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.2% to 8,761.53. Overall, there was no sign of panic. 'I believe what we are thinking is or the thinking is that it is going to be a short conflict. The one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we'll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction,' said Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan. The conflict began with an Israeli attack against Iran on June 13 that sent oil prices yo-yoing and rattled other markets. Closing off the Strait of Hormuz would be technically difficult but it could severely disrupt transit through it, sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move without U.S. Navy escorts. As a major oil producer, Iran may be reluctant to close down the waterway, which is used to transport its own crude, mostly to China. Oil is a major revenue source for the regime. 'The situation remains highly fluid, and much hinges on whether Tehran opts for a restrained reaction or a more aggressive course of action,' Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a commentary. Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said disrupting traffic through the strait would be 'economic suicide' and would elicit a U.S. response. 'I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio said. When asked about that at a routine briefing in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters in Beijing that 'China is willing to strengthen communication with Iran and relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role in promoting de-escalation' of the conflict. 'The Persian Gulf and its adjacent waters are important international channels for cargo and energy trade. Maintaining security and stability in this region serves the common interests of the international community,' he said. Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co said he expects Iranian leaders to refrain from drastic measures and oil futures to ease back after the initial fears blow over. Disrupting shipping would be ' a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move,' Kloza said. Writing in a report, Ed Yardeni, a long-time analyst, agreed that Tehran leaders would likely hold back. 'They aren't crazy,' he wrote in a note to investors Sunday. 'The price of oil should fall and stock markets around the world should climb higher.' Other experts weren't so sure. Countries are not always rational actors and Tehran could lash out for political or emotional reasons, said Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst who has covered oil markets for 45 years. 'If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,' Lipow said. That would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways, he said. Much of East Asia depends on oil imported through the strait. Taiwan's Taiex fell 1.4% while the Kospi in South Korea slipped 0.2%. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 edged 0.1% lower, with gains for defense contractors, oil companies and miners helping to make up for broad losses. 'The U.S. strike on Iran certainly is very good for defense equipment,' Newman of Atris Advisory said, noting that both Japan and South Korea have sizable military manufacturing hubs. Australia's S&P/ASX fell 0.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng regained lost ground, climbing 0.7%, while the Shanghai Composite index picked up 0.7%. In currency dealings, the U.S. dollar rose to 147.82 Japanese yen from 146.66 yen. The euro fell to $1.1464 from $1.1473.
9 hours ago
- Business
Oil gains and US stock futures, Asian shares slip after US strikes Iran nuclear sites
BANGKOK -- Global markets appeared to take the U.S. strike against nuclear targets in Iran in stride as investors watched to see how Iran will react. The price of oil initially jumped more than 2% but fell back slightly on Monday. U.S. stock futures and most Asian shares declined. The big question is what Iran will do, analysts said, while the U.S. military's strike on three Iranian sites raised urgent questions about what remains of Tehran's nuclear program. "I believe what we are thinking is or the thinking is that it is going to be a short conflict. The one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we'll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction,' said Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, was up 1.2% at $77.94 a barrel. U.S. crude also jumped, gaining 1.3% to $74.82 a barrel. The attacks Saturday raised the stakes in the war between Israel and Iran, and the futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%. The Nasdaq future contract fell 0.5%. Treasury yields were little changed. The conflict began with an Israeli attack against Iran on June 13 that sent oil prices yo-yoing and rattled other markets. Iran is a major producer of oil and also sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's crude passes. Closing off the waterway would be technically difficult to pull off but it could severely disrupt transit through it, sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move without U.S. Navy escorts 'The situation remains highly fluid, and much hinges on whether Tehran opts for a restrained reaction or a more aggressive course of action,' Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a commentary. Iran may be reluctant to close down the waterway because it uses the strait to transport its own crude, mostly to China, and oil is a major revenue source for the regime. Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said disrupting traffic through the strait would be 'economic suicide" and would elicit a U.S. response. "I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio said. Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co said he expects Iranian leaders to refrain from drastic measures and oil futures to ease back after the initial fears blow over. Disrupting shipping would be " a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move,' Kloza said. Writing in a report, Ed Yardeni, a long-time analyst, agreed that Tehran leaders would likely hold back. 'They aren't crazy,' he wrote in a note to investors Sunday. 'The price of oil should fall and stock markets around the world should climb higher.' Other experts aren't so sure. Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst covering oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and that he wouldn't be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons. 'If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,' said Lipow, predicting that that would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways. 'It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates.' In Asian trading early Monday, Taiwan's Taiex fell 1.4% while the Kospi in South Korea initially lost 1% but then regained some lost ground to fall 0.2% to 3,016.71. Much of East Asia depends on oil imported through the Strait of Hormuz. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 edged 0.2% lower to 38,344.15, as losses for most shares were offset by gains for defense oriented stocks. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries climbed 0.8% and ShinMaywa Industries, another major weapons maker, surged 1.5%. 'The U.S. strike on Iran certainly is very good for defense equipment,' Newman of Atris Advisory said, noting that both Japan and South Korea have sizable military manufacturing hubs. Australia's S&P/ASX fell 0.4% to 8,475.70. Hong Kong's Hang Seng regained lost ground, climbing 0.4% to 23,622.71, while markets in mainland China advanced. The Shanghai Composite index picked up 0.5% to 3,376.65. In currency dealings, the U.S. dollar rose to 147.16 Japanese yen from 146.66 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1515 from $1.1473.
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First Post
10 hours ago
- Business
- First Post
US strikes in Iran: Oil prices surge as stock futures & Asian stocks dip
Following the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, oil prices have surged by up to 2% and US stock futures Asian stocks have declined. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the oil prices could surge to $130 a barrel. read more Fuga Bluemarine crude oil tanker lies at anchor near the terminal Kozmino in Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia. Global markets appeared to take the US strike against nuclear targets in Iran in stride as investors watched to see how Iran will react. The price of oil initially jumped more than 2 per cent but fell back slightly on Monday. US stock futures and most Asian shares declined. The big question is what Iran will do, analysts said, while the US military's strike on three Iranian sites raised urgent questions about what remains of Tehran's nuclear program. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'I believe what we are thinking is or the thinking is that it is going to be a short conflict. The one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we'll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction,' said Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, was up 1.2 per cent at $77.94 a barrel. US crude also jumped, gaining 1.3 per cent to $74.82 a barrel. The attacks Saturday raised the stakes in the war between Israel and Iran, and the futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3 per cent. The Nasdaq future contract fell 0.5 per cent. Treasury yields were little changed. The conflict began with an Israeli attack against Iran on June 13 that sent oil prices yo-yoing and rattled other markets. Iran is a major producer of oil and also sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's crude passes. Closing off the waterway would be technically difficult to pull off but it could severely disrupt transit through it, sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move without US Navy escorts 'The situation remains highly fluid, and much hinges on whether Tehran opts for a restrained reaction or a more aggressive course of action,' Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a commentary. Iran may be reluctant to close down the waterway because it uses the strait to transport its own crude, mostly to China, and oil is a major revenue source for the regime. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said disrupting traffic through the strait would be 'economic suicide' and would elicit a US response. 'I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio said. Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co said he expects Iranian leaders to refrain from drastic measures and oil futures to ease back after the initial fears blow over. Disrupting shipping would be 'a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move', Kloza said. Writing in a report, Ed Yardeni, a long-time analyst, agreed that Tehran leaders would likely hold back. 'They aren't crazy,' he wrote in a note to investors Sunday. 'The price of oil should fall and stock markets around the world should climb higher.' Other experts aren't so sure. Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst covering oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and that he wouldn't be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,' said Lipow, predicting that that would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways. 'It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates.' In Asian trading early Monday, Taiwan's Taiex fell 1.4 per cent while the Kospi in South Korea initially lost 1 per cent but then regained some lost ground to fall 0.2% to 3,016.71. Much of East Asia depends on oil imported through the Strait of Hormuz. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 edged 0.2 per cent lower to 38,344.15, as losses for most shares were offset by gains for defense oriented stocks. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries climbed 0.8 per cent and ShinMaywa Industries, another major weapons maker, surged 1.5 per cent. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'The U.S. strike on Iran certainly is very good for defense equipment,' Newman of Atris Advisory said, noting that both Japan and South Korea have sizable military manufacturing hubs. Australia's S&P/ASX fell 0.4 per cent to 8,475.70. Hong Kong's Hang Seng regained lost ground, climbing 0.4% to 23,622.71, while markets in mainland China advanced. The Shanghai Composite index picked up 0.5 per cent to 3,376.65. In currency dealings, the US dollar rose to 147.16 Japanese yen from 146.66 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1515 from $1.1473. (This is an agency copy. Except for the headline, the copy has not been edited by Firstpost staff.)
