Latest news with #AuriniaPharmaceuticals'
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Just Recorded A 60% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:AUPH) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.3% to hit US$62m. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals also reported a statutory profit of US$0.16, which was an impressive 60% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year. We've discovered 2 warning signs about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. View them for free. Following the latest results, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$259.0m in 2025. This would be a modest 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 99% to US$0.59. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$258.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.47 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the great increase in earnings per share expectations following these results. See our latest analysis for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals The average the analysts price target fell 7.7% to US$10.00, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$12.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable. Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 44% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future valuation. Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Aurinia Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here. We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals that you need to be mindful of. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
06-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' (NASDAQ:AUPH) Earnings May Just Be The Starting Point
Even though Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AUPH) recent earnings release was robust, the market didn't seem to notice. Investors are probably missing some underlying factors which are encouraging for the future of the company. Check out our latest analysis for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'. As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has an accrual ratio of -1.65 for the year to December 2024. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of US$44m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of US$5.75m. Given that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of US$44m would seem to be a step in the right direction. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' profit was reduced by unusual items worth US$23m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. In the twelve months to December 2024, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals had a big unusual items expense. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items made its statutory profit significantly weaker than it would otherwise be. Considering both Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' accrual ratio and its unusual items, we think its statutory earnings are unlikely to exaggerate the company's underlying earnings power. Based on these factors, we think Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' underlying earnings potential is as good as, or probably even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals you should know about. Our examination of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
02-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Results: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
The annual results for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:AUPH) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$235m were what the analysts expected, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.04 per share, an impressive 54% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year. View our latest analysis for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Following the latest results, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$258.6m in 2025. This would be a solid 10.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 1,010% to US$0.47. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$274.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.57 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates. The consensus price target fell 5.1% to US$10.29, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aurinia Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure. Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 10.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 47% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants. The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here. Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Aurinia Pharmaceuticals . Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
