25-05-2025
Farmers set to plant a record crop equivalent to the entire UK
Despite severe drought and devastating flooding, Australian farmers are on track to plant a record winter crop, sowing an area equivalent to the size of the United Kingdom.
A report by agribusiness Rabobank estimates 24.5 million hectares of wheat, barley, chickpeas and canola will be sown, breaking the record of 24.1 million hectares set in 2020/21.
That is despite farmers in southern parts of the country reducing their planting or diversifying to cope with devastating dry conditions.
For those farmers who received the wetter-than-average "summer luck", the forecast is a welcome dose of optimism after some tough seasons.
Michael Ryan is one of those farmers gearing up for a big plant.
He cannot help but feel thankful as he runs his hands through the rich, chocolate-brown soil on his property in Pilton, two hours south-west of Brisbane.
In the past year, 730 millimetres of rain fell on his farm, 80 per cent more than average.
"It's one of the best outlooks I've seen in the last 10 to 15 years," Mr Ryan said.
"We're pretty lucky in this Pilton Valley.
"We have very nice self-cracking, mulching clay soil; some people say it's that nice you could eat it.
"I'm very lucky to be able to farm it."
Alongside his wife Alyson and three children, Mr Ryan is preparing machinery for sowing wheat in a few weeks.
He said it was a stark contrast to tough seasons between 2018 and 2020 when plantings were minimal.
"We hardly grew a crop," he said.
"While these good years are around, we've got to make the most of it because you never know when the next drought is."
With 40 years spent on the land, Mr Ryan understands how quickly fortunes can change in agriculture.
That is especially apparent this year, as parts of South Australia and Victoria struggle with record dry conditions, and parts of New South Wales reel from deadly flooding.
"You really feel for those poor people," Mr Ryan said.
"It's like someone's fortune is someone's misfortune, too."
While the current flooding emergency in NSW had likely damaged some crops, it was unlikely to change the forecast, as Rabobank expected livestock producers were the hardest hit.
Grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia, who authored the report, said wetter-than-average conditions in the northern growing region over summer were driving the record forecast.
"[Summer] flooding in some cropping regions may delay sowing but it is supportive for another season of large sowing areas," he said.
"WA's southern cropping areas also received timely rainfall to have a good start to the season.
"Other cropping regions around the country though, did not get the same summer luck."
He said in South Australia, western parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales the soil was too dry to plant.
"For South Australia, everything is hanging on the season break, which up to this moment, hasn't happened," Mr Pistoia said.
At Warra, three hours north-west of Brisbane, farmer and Grain Producers Australia northern director Brendan Taylor faces a different challenge.
Like many Queensland farmers, his barley is already planted, but conditions need to dry out to sow chickpeas.
"The risk we've got in some places in the south here where it is very wet is, potentially if it rains again, that's going to delay planting even more," he said.
"Hopefully Mother Nature cooperates and lets us do that."
While the area sown may reach record highs, there is no guarantee it will mean bigger harvests or profits.
Mr Pistoia said yields would depend on rainfall during the growing season, while input costs and grain prices would determine returns.
"There are budget pressures. Fertiliser, it's costing more year over year. Machinery remains a big issue. Labour as well," he said.
Rabobank forecasts the 2025–26 harvest to yield about 54 million tonnes, down from last year's 60 million.
Despite global trade uncertainties, including US tariffs, Australian grain and oilseed exports remain resilient and may even gain market share, the report noted.
"Asian countries rely on Australia to source imports of grains and pulses, and the EU imports canola to balance its supply of oilseeds," Mr Pistoia said.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) is expected to release its updated winter crop forecast for 2025 in June.
