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Newsweek
30-05-2025
- Automotive
- Newsweek
Elon Musk's Robotaxi Threatens Uber
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Elon Musk's imminent rollout of Tesla's "robotaxi" service could pose a threat to Uber as the two companies attempts to incorporate driverless vehicles into their operations and compete for a share of this revolutionary new market. "We continue to believe Tesla Robotaxi serves as a long-term threat to Uber's business model," analysts at Wedbush Securities wrote in a note on Thursday. They referred to a new Bloomberg report that, citing anonymous sources familiar with the plans, said Tesla intends to launch its robotaxi service on June 12. Newsweek has reached out to Tesla via email for comment. Uber directed Newsweek to previous comments made by its executive on the opportunities for the company in the autonomous vehicle space. Why It Matters Tesla and Uber have been racing to test and implement autonomous driving, which has become a central element of both companies' long-term growth strategies and value propositions to investors. Uber hopes to incorporate it into its ride-sharing and delivery services, while Tesla intends on making driverless cars available to customers in addition to a fully autonomous robotaxi network. A Tesla robotaxi two-passenger battery-electric self-driving car on display at the AutoSalon on January 10, 2025, in Brussels. A Tesla robotaxi two-passenger battery-electric self-driving car on display at the AutoSalon on January 10, 2025, in Brussels. Sjoerd vanWhat To Know In preparation for the robotaxi launch, Bloomberg reported that Tesla has been testing its self-driving Model Y in Austin, Texas. Musk confirmed self-driving tests in a post to his X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday. "For the past several days, Tesla has been testing self-driving Model Y cars (no one in driver's seat) on Austin public streets with no incidents," he wrote. "A month ahead of schedule. Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer." Uber, meanwhile, has begun offering autonomous riding experiences through its partnership with Waymo, the self-driving vehicle subsidiary of Google parent Alphabet. The company launched the initiative in a 37-mile area of Austin in March and said it plans to expand to Atlanta in the near future. However, both companies' autonomous vehicle tests have encountered scrutiny on safety grounds as well regulatory hurdles, and experts told Newsweek a full nationwide rollout may be premature given questions surrounding the safety and practicality of full-self-driving (FSD) vehicles. "There are significant safety concerns with wireless data connectivity and situational awareness with a remote driver," said Phil Koopman, professor at Carnegie Mellon University's Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering. "If the data connection drops at just the wrong time when the remote driver needs to intervene for safety, we could see a crash," Koopman told Newsweek. "Since Tesla is not being forthcoming with details of how their remote driver arrangement works, we will just have to wait and see how this turns out." Self-driving Waymo vehicle driving past the headquarters of Uber in the Mission Bay neighborhood of San Francisco on March 18, 2025. Self-driving Waymo vehicle driving past the headquarters of Uber in the Mission Bay neighborhood of San Francisco on March 18, 2025. Contributor/Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images He added that it remains unclear how FSD cars would be able to deal with an "edge case"—uncommon situations that fall outside the common patterns an autonomous vehicle has been trained to deal with. While a full rollout may be imminent, Americans also remain skeptical of the promise of autonomous vehicles. In a recent poll of 8,000 U.S. consumers by market research firm Electric Vehicle Intelligence Report, 71 percent said they would be unwilling to ride in a Tesla robotaxi, with 43 percent saying that robotaxis should be illegal. What People Are Saying Jack Stilgoe, professor of Science and Technology Studies at University College London, told Newsweek: "Tesla has been engaged in a giant experiment in automotive autonomy for more than a decade. There is still a lot of experimenting to be done, and the public and policymakers should want this to be done as responsibly as possible. The concern is that Tesla's haste to move on to the next phase of their experiment might prompt the company to be reckless. "Getting a robotaxi to work doesn't just mean getting the software and hardware up to scratch at a level of reliability way above what Tesla has demonstrated so far. It also means doing all of the boring stuff—teleoperation, customer services, parking lots—that make a service work. "And all of this requires the support of regulators, cities, infrastructure planners, a trusting and willing user base and supportive citizens in the places where the vehicles operate." Bryant Walker Smith, a legal scholar specializing in autonomous vehicles and emerging transport technologies, told Newsweek: "Tesla has never demonstrated a system capable of automated driving. Any June 'launch' of such a system will necessarily be exceptionally limited: simple environments, slow speeds, and supervised operations." Phil Koopman of Carnegie Mellon University told Newsweek: "Tesla FSD is a very long way from being able to act like a robotaxi everywhere. There are still serious safety concerns with its behaviors. With a robotaxi, there will be no in-vehicle driver to blame for crashes. Tesla needs to get this right, and the technology is still a work in progress. "It seems that Tesla is applying significant effort to polish FSD up for a small initial deployment involving a few cars in a limited area. It is good that they are starting small. Hopefully they will be attentive to fixing any problems before increasing the size of the operation." Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, in a statement earlier this year: "Naturally, investors are debating whether AVs pose a risk or present a massive opportunity for Uber. Based on our deep engagement with AV technology developers, auto [Original Equipment Manufacturers] and other experts and technologists in the ecosystem, I am more confident than ever that Uber is uniquely positioned to capture the $1 trillion+ opportunity that autonomy will unlock in the U.S. alone." Uber's head of strategic finance, Balaji Krishnamurthy, on X: "We believe AV can open up a $1T+ [Total Addressable Market] for Uber in the US alone — but while AV tech is advancing, commercialization will happen much more slowly. Multiple elements still need to come together: A consistently super-human safety record — human-level safety is simply not good enough; Enabling regulations — which are still nascent in most markets; A cost-effective, scaled hardware platform — most OEMs not able to produce at the right cost or volumes; Excellent on-the-ground operations — Uber's wheelhouse." Tesla CEO Elon Musk, during an earnings call in April: "I remain extremely optimistic about the future of the company. The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale—being large volume—vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots. "The value of a company that makes truly useful autonomous humanoid robots and autonomous useful vehicles at scale, at low cost—which is what Tesla is going to do—is staggering. I continue to believe that Tesla, with excellent execution, will be the most valuable company in the world by far." What Happens Next Wedbush Securities analysts believe autonomous vehicles and robotics are key to Tesla's growth, estimating this month that these opportunities are "worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla." As a result of the imminent Austin launch, they increased their price target for Tesla shares to $500 from $350.
Forbes
26-04-2025
- Automotive
- Forbes
Europe's EV Sales Accelerate But Long-Term EU Mandates Look Demanding
Fiat Grande Panda battery electric compact car on display at the AutoSalon on January 10, 2025 in ... More Brussels, Belgium. (Photo by Sjoerd van) Europe's new electric vehicle market has been showing signs of life in 2025 with Volkswagen leading the way and the Chinese stumbling temporarily, but the current pace of growth is too slow to get close to European Union long-term targets designed to force citizens entirely out of new combustion-powered vehicles and into EVs by 2035. The EU has decreed that no new vehicles powered by diesel or gasoline engines will be sold from 2035 and the target for 2030 is close to 80%. But the industry is close to forcing big changes in the rules by allowing other technologies to flourish. That would allow a longer life for hybrids and the use of so-called e-fuels. Most forecasters agree that by 2030 European EV sales will reach only between 30 and 50% of the market. Among those brave enough to speculate in print about 2035, investment researcher Jefferies reckons that EVs will reach only 50% of the market. EV Volumes is a hopeful outlier, expecting market share of 60.5% in 2030 and 93.1% in 2035. The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association said new EV sales jumped 23.9% in the first quarter to 413,000, compared with the same period of 2024. European EV sales stagnated last year at just under 2 million and a market share of 16%. The trouble with these carbon dioxide-based EV targets for European manufacturers is that legislators were apparently unaware that China had a huge lead over its own domestic manufacturers and that adherence to the targets would devastate its own industry. This led to the recent introduction of punitive tariffs on Chinese EV imports. There is no shortage of worries for European auto manufacturers. The economy is weakening, and competition from China threatens even the likes of BMW, Mercedes, Porsche and Audi despite the tariffs. Chinese automakers like BYD and Geely now have at least a 30% cost advantage in EV manufacturing, investment bank UBS has said. These premium German automakers are also under threat in China where the locals can now outsell even classic European brands. This upheaval heralds the start of an era where the traditional manufacturers of the West would see their markets undermined to such an extent that some would be forced into bankruptcy or mergers. Professor Stefan Bratzel, director of Germany's Center of Automotive Management, has talked of an approaching 'Darwinian' moment for the industry. President Trump's attempt to abruptly end years of what he calls unfair tariffs couldn't have come at a worse time and has induced frightening stock market and currency fluctuations and threatened to undermine long-established markets and supply chains. These mounting pressures mean EU politicians will be forced to water down the CO2-based rules and allow much more flexibility to give European EV-makers a lifeline. This has already started. The EU recently extended the deadline for 2025 compliance by a couple of years. More serious concessions are likely said Santiago Arieu, analyst with Fitch Solutions. Renault vice-President Gilles Vidal presents a Renault 5 E-TECH electric car. (Photo by EMMANUEL ... More DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images) 'We believe that the notion that Europe's new light-vehicle market will be entirely EVs from 2035 has lost momentum over the past 2-3 years owing to challenges in achieving higher EV penetration rates in the mass autos market. We therefore believe that the prospect of the EU revising its targets closer to 2035 is substantially higher now compared with market expectations in 2021,' Arieu said. Fitch Solutions expects European EV market share will reach around 35% in 2030 and 52% in 2034. Arieu said more affordable and advanced EVs over the medium term allow a moderately optimistic outlook, although much of the increased demand for EVs so far has been induced by government incentives. French automotive consultancy Inovev said most current EV sales are in the price range €35,000 ($40,000) to €50,000 ($57,000), including the Volkswagen ID.3 and Teslas Model 3 and Y. This year will see the launch of many cheaper EVs, like the Citroen e-C3 (from €23,300/$26,500)) Fiat Grande Panda (€24,900) Renault 5 E-Tech (€27,990), Hyundai Inster (€29,250/$33,300)) and Kia EV2. Inovev forecasts an EV market share of 35% by 2030. Next year VW will launch the ID.2 and ID.1. Arieu said European governments are becoming increasingly worried about the damage to employment from the demise of ICE. 'There is growing support from European governments for their automotive sectors as many jobs are tied to ICE supply chains. This suggests that some European countries are likely to show greater resistance in the coming years in relation to the EU's CO2 emission targets and the broader 2035 plan to only allow zero-emission light vehicles to be sold,' Arieu said. Hyundai Inster Cross battery electric car. (Photo by Sjoerd van) 'Despite the recent flexibility introduced by the EU, the emission targets remain stringent, posing significant challenges not only for car manufacturers but also for European policymakers,' Arieu said. This move to ease the way for carmakers is not popular with green advocates like Brussels-based Transport and Environment. T&E said the recent concession was justified by 'unrepresentative' sales data for 2024. 'The EV sales rebound shows that the existing EU target is working. Require carmakers to sell more electric cars and the buyers will come. It is a mistake to change the rules in the middle of the game. This must be the last flexibility carmakers are given. Let's allow the 2030 and 2035 targets to do their work and bring affordable EVs and cleantech investment into Europe,' T&E's Julia Poliscanova said in a statement. Matt Schmidt, founder of Schmidt Automotive Research, sees some good news for Europeans. Schmidt said Volkswagen made a strong start to the year, with four of the top five EV sales in the first couple of months accounted for by its brands. VW made inroads into Tesla's market share as it face-lifted the Model Y. More good news for Europeans concerned Chinese brands, as recent sales acceleration came under pressure. Chinese EV market share rocketed from 3.8% in 2021 to 9.5% last year. 'However, since the turn of 2025, that pace has decelerated and moved into reverse as European brands roll out new products in line with the tightening EU CO2 fleet emission legislation,' Schmidt said in his latest monthly report. That relief for Europeans may be short-lived. 'Things look more positive for Sino-brands such as BYD – which will be helped by local production from the end of this year – SAIC, Geely and Chery entering the market in stealth under various alias brands such as Omoda, Ebro and Jaecoo gaining strength across the U.K. and Spain,' Schmidt said. Schmidt said West European EV sales will jump 32.6% in 2025 to 2.56 million with market share rising to 21.5% from 16.7%. In 2030 EV sales will account for 54.0% of the market or 7.1 million.
