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Vancouver Sun
28-05-2025
- Politics
- Vancouver Sun
How voting patterns shifted in Metro Vancouver during the 2024 provincial election
How people vote in Metro Vancouver seems driven by where they live, according to detailed voting results from the last provincial election. Results from B.C.'s 2024 provincial election show a significant geographic consolidation of NDP and Conservative voters — particularly in Metro Vancouver — compared to 2020, according to a Postmedia analysis. Support for the B.C. NDP solidified in Burnaby, New Westminster, North Vancouver and the Tri-Cities. The B.C. Conservative Party consolidated support in Richmond, made big inroads in Surrey and swept nearly everything east of Langley. The analysis was based on voting area data released by Elections B.C. Voting areas are designed to contain 400 to 700 registered voters, which provides significantly more detail on voting patterns than riding-level results. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Here's what we found: In 2020, the B.C. Liberals won scores of voting areas across North Vancouver, New Westminster and the Tri-Cities. In 2024, the B.C. NDP swept virtually all of those cities, with the exception of a few small pockets in Coquitlam. Conservative support in Vancouver — where the B.C. Liberals, which later rebranded as B.C. United, traditionally dominated a number of downtown neighbourhoods and much of the west side — shrunk to little more than a few narrow pockets in Yaletown, the West End, Kerrisdale and Shaughnessy. At least some of that polarization can be attributed to the rightward leaning of the Conservative party, relative to B.C. United, which dropped out of the race. Sanjay Jeram, a political-science professor at SFU, said the rightward shift may have 'scared off' some voters who would have traditionally voted for the B.C. Liberals. 'The cost of moving to the right is that you're going to essentially alienate certain voters,' Jeram said. 'So now you see a little more polarization.' In Richmond, the Conservatives led most voting areas outside of Steveston — a significant change from 2020 when the NDP won in neighbourhoods across the city. In Surrey, which leaned heavily to the NDP in 2020, Conservatives took large swaths of the northwest, Fleetwood and Cloverdale, and other neighbourhoods. Both Jeram and Stewart Prest, a political-science professor at UBC, suggested that public safety, an issue the Conservatives prioritized, may have played a role, given that communities south of the Fraser often lean conservative on social issues. 'If you're asking for a simple answer as to what explains the conservative growth (in Surrey), I would say it's the way they own that issue,' Jeram said. Despite the consolidation of votes around the two main parties, the margin of victory was often much smaller in 2024 than 2020, especially in Metro Vancouver. In Vancouver's Shaughnessy neighbourhood, where the 2020 margin of victory for the B.C. Liberals often approached 80 percentage points, the largest margin was 39 percentage points. In parts of Pitt Meadows where the NDP won by close to 50 points in 2020, the margin of victory in 2024 was often 10 percentage points or less. Both Jeram and Prest said the long-standing idea of a rural/urban political divide is starting to shift. They suggested other markers, like ethnicity and housing density, could be more relevant. 'Different dividing lines are starting to form,' Prest said. B.C.'s Green party is facing an existential crisis, according to the experts Postmedia spoke with. The party, which won just two seats in the last provincial election, struggled outside of the Saanich North and Sea to Sky ridings they won. Both Prest and Jeram said the party's struggle to define itself on issues other than the environment made voting Green a tough proposition in most of the province. 'It's hard to make the case for the continuing relevance of a party that has trouble carving out a distinct and consistent identity on most issues,' Prest said. 'The short answer is, everybody has made up their mind about the environment.' While the NDP suffered significant losses on Vancouver Island and along the northwest coast, they held support in some areas, including near Bella Bella, Hazelton, and near Prince Rupert. The Conservatives borrowed political rhetoric from the federal Conservative party that prioritized workers — an approach that spoke to disengaged voters, both Jeram and Prest said. 'The working class felt disconnected, disadvantaged and not listened to by the NDP,' Jeram said. 'Voters seemed quite willing to come along with John Rustad's version of conservatism,' Prest said. 'By using that federal stamp, I think it really helped build the case that this was a big tent conservative movement.' ngriffiths@
CBC
10-03-2025
- Politics
- CBC
3 former B.C. Conservative MLAs, who will sit as Independents, say party has been captured by 'woke liberals'
WARNING: This story contains details of experiences at residential schools. Three former B.C. Conservative MLAs say they will sit as Independents in the B.C. legislature, but have not ruled out the possibility of forming a party should more members join them. Vancouver-Quilchena MLA Dallas Brodie was kicked out of the B.C. Conservative caucus on Friday over comments she made during an appearance on a video podcast, which party leader John Rustad characterized as mocking the testimony of residential school survivors. Shortly after, both Jordan Kealy of Peace River-North and Tara Armstrong of Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream said they were leaving in solidarity, levelling criticism at Rustad for creating a "toxic" environment. Their departure has exposed divides in the B.C. Conservative Party, which, until recently, did not have a seat in the legislature and then skyrocketed to the position of official opposition under Rustad's leadership following his own expulsion from the B.C. Liberals in 2023. Armstrong told reporters outside the legislature today that Rustad "caved to the woke liberals who have infiltrated the party." She said Rustad's "cowardly decision" stabbed her in the back and "revealed just how corrupt he has become." Several remaining MLAs, however, voiced their support for Rustad and levelled criticism at the new Independents for their statements around Indigenous people and residential schools. 2 MLAs needed for official party status All three of the departed Conservatives are first-time MLAs who ran under the banner of the party following the collapse of B.C. United (formerly the B.C. Liberals). Kealy said he would not be stepping aside in order to hold a byelection to allow voters in his riding to decide if they want an Independent MLA. "I ran my election on who I am and I was running for a party that I thought had conservative morals and values and it turned out to be completely opposite," he said. In B.C., two elected members are needed in order to receive official party status, which comes with more money from taxpayers, as well as staff and office space to support their work. Should a new party be formed, it would echo when Rustad was kicked out of the B.C. Liberals and later joined by Bruce Banman to get the Conservatives official party status — the only time four parties have been represented in the provincial legislature. As it stands, the governing NDP have 47 MLAs, the Conservatives are down to 41, the Greens have two, and there are three Independents. Situation was 'untenable': Rustad Throughout the morning's press conference and in social media posts over the weekend, Brodie claimed she was kicked out of the party for telling the "truth" about residential schools, in particular the former Kamloops Indian Residential School. Rustad, though said he tried to address the matter internally with Brodie but she refused. "It was an untenable situation," he said, claiming all three Independents had been gearing up to leave the party since shortly after the election, pushing for internal changes that the majority of hte party's MLAs disagreed with. "Ms. Brodie asked to be kicked out of caucus," he said, describing a party meeting last week. "She actually asked us to vote to kick her out ... as she stormed out of the room." The residential school system was a decades-long policy that saw more than 150,000 First Nations, Métis and Inuit children forced to attend church-run, government-funded schools between the 1870s and 1997. Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper formally apologized to former students of residential schools in 2008. This was followed by the establishment of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), which from 2009 to 2015 collected testimony from survivors and families from across the country. In its report released in 2015, the TRC documented physical, sexual and psychological abuse, as well as deaths, primarily through malnourishment and disease, describing an overall process of attempting to "destroy Aboriginal cultures and languages." In 2021, the TRC said it had documented more than 4,100 deaths at residential schools. In May of that year, the Tk'emlúps te Secwépemc First Nation announced ground penetrating radar provided "confirmation of the remains of 215 children," sparking nationwide reaction including the lowering of Canadian flags and other First Nations starting their own searches using the technology. Tk'emlúps te Secwépemc later clarified that the technology had identified "potential burial sites," as ground-penetrating radar cannot identify bodies but simply areas consistent with unmarked graves. Last year, it updated the language to "anomalies." WATCH | The technology of ground-penetrating radar: Researchers behind ground penetrating radar say it isn't about finding proof 1 year ago Duration 4:53 The director of the Institute of Prairie and Indigenous Archaeology, Kisha Supernant, talks about how the public's understanding of GPR has evolved since the discovery of suspected unmarked graves at the former Kamloops Indian Residential School in 2021. The decision about whether to dig up the sites to confirm the presence of bodies is one Tk'emlúps te Secwépemc and other First Nations have said requires reflection and consultation with the community, as some survivors want human remains left undisturbed while other feel exhumation could offer closure. It was this ongoing conversation that sparked Brodie's eventual removal from the Conservatives. In February, she posted a statement to X reading "The number of confirmed child burials at the former Kamloops Indian Residential School site is zero. Zero. No one should be afraid of the truth. Not lawyers, their governing bodies or anyone else." Though she received some backlash, she was allowed to stay in the party, even after refusing Rustad's request to take the post down. But it was an appearance on a video podcast that sparked her removal, Rustad said. In the discussion, Brodie was describing her commitment to sticking to the truth around residential schools. "I do know, if we don't have truth — not his truth, her truth, oh, my grandmother's truth," she said before raising the pitch of her voice, to say "My truth, and your truth, oh my truth." WATCH | The comments Rustad say led to Brodie's ouster: MLA's podcast comments get her removed from B.C. Conservative caucus 3 days ago Duration 0:21 Dallas Brodie was removed from the B.C. Conservative caucus after she appeared in a video podcast and made comments party Leader John Rustad characterized as "mocking" the testimony of residential school survivors who suffered abuse. Rustad described this as using a "mocking, child-like voice to belittle testimony from former residential school students." He said it was that — and not her statements around the number of bodies found, which he described as factual — that caused her to be removed. "She came came across as belittling people who were saying, you know, their truth, the truth of of what they experienced," he told CBC Early Edition host Stephen Quinn on Monday. "That's what to me was offensive." More divides on the way? Rustad said he had initially consulted with Indigenous members of his party to find a way forward with Brodie and believed a resolution could be reached but that she and the other Independents were uninterested. He said he wished them well but his party would stay focused on holding the governing B.C. NDP to account on the issues that matter to British Columbians. Brodie has said she agrees harms were caused by residential schools but on Monday, she told reporters Rustad had been captured by the "reconciliation industry" which she described as a "consortium of lawyers, consultants and chiefs with help from the mainstream media and opportunistic politicians" being torn apart by "narratives of eternal guilt and grievance to keep us divided." On X, she referred to an "elite racial minority" that were manipulating leaders. She says she's received messages of support for her statements, but other B.C. Conservative legislators and members have publicly announced their solidarity with Rustad since Friday's turmoil. Chris Sankey, a former elected band councillor and businessman from Lax Kw'alaams who ran for the Conservatives, posted on X that "watching grown adults behave like lunatics by hurling racial slurs and insulting Indigenous people is disgusting." He said reconciliation has helped Indigenous communities work with B.C. to move economic projects forward. Conservative House leader and Sto:lo Nation member Á'a:líya Warbus applauded Sankey's statement, posting that "people want to control or steer a narrative, for their own selfish benefit." Former Surrey mayor Linda Hepner, who now represents Surrey-Serpentine River in the legislature, said Sunday that the party "is stronger now" since the departure of the three members. "Extreme right wing views are harmful not helpful," Hepner said on X. "The big tent is made more easily bigger now." Langley-Willowbrook MLA Jody Toor said on social media Saturday that Rustad had her "unwavering support," while Penticton-Summerland MLA Amelia Boultbee said Rustad's ejection of Brodie had her "complete support." "Ms. Brodie's statements are abhorrent and have no place in the BC Conservative caucus," Boultbee said in a post Monday. "This is not a matter of crusading for truth. This is a matter of the privileged position enjoyed by MLAs, and the importance of fostering respectful dialogue with our First Nations friends and neighbours." Rustad said he knows there are members of his party who are sympathetic to the ousted MLAs but he isn't worried about more losses. Asked if she believed more MLAs would be leaving the party, Brodie said "there are some whispers, yes, but I can't say anything right now."
CBC
04-03-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Tories reject former B.C. cabinet minister Mike de Jong as federal election candidate
Mike de Jong, one of B.C.'s longest-serving MLAS, says the federal Conservative Party has rejected him as a candidate in the upcoming election. In a statement posted to social media on Tuesday, de Jong said he had been "informally advised" of the decision Monday evening and called it disappointing. "It is difficult to comprehend how I would not be deemed worthy of having my name on the ballot," Dejong said in the statement. De Jong served as an MLA for the B.C. United party — formerly the B.C. Liberals— for more than 30 years. He has served in several ministerial positions throughout his political career, including as minister of finance, minister of health, and attorney general, among others. He has also served as the government House leader. De Jong announced he was seeking the federal Conservative nomination in Abbotsford-South Langley last April. He said the news he would not be a candidate came to him "after nearly a year of campaigning to represent the riding as the Conservative candidate."
