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BBC News
27-03-2025
- Business
- BBC News
UK tax rises: The five steps that could lead to increases
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has set out her plans for the UK economy in her Spring Statement and is on track to meet her self-imposed rules on the public finances, which she has said are "non-negotiable".On the face of it, that sounds like a good thing. So why are people saying that she may struggle to meet them and the only way she may do so is by raising taxes?It's a complicated picture. 1. Not much spare money Ahead of the Spring Statement, the chancellor had been under pressure, with speculation over how she would be able to meet her self-imposed financial rules, one of which is to not borrow to fund day-to-day October, the government's official economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), said that Reeves would be able to meet that rule with £9.9bn to increase in government borrowing costs since then meant that that room to spare had disappeared. Now big welfare cuts and spending reductions in the Spring Statement have restored £10bn may sound like a lot, but it's a relatively small amount in an economy that spends £1 trillion a year, and raises around the same in fact it is the third lowest margin a chancellor has left themselves since 2010. The average headroom over that time is three times bigger at £30bn. "It is a tiny fraction of the risks to the outlook," Richard Hughes from the OBR told the said there were many factors that could "wipe out" the chancellor's headroom, including an escalating trade war, any small downgrade to growth forecasts or a rise in interest rates. 2. Predicting the future is difficult Which brings us on to the precarious nature of making economic forecasts."All forecasts turn out to be wrong. Weather forecasts also turn out to be wrong," says what will happen in the future, especially in five years' time is hard, and is subject to revisions. You could be forgiven for not predicting a war or a pandemic, for respected think tank, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), has already said there is "a good chance that economic and fiscal forecasts will deteriorate significantly between now and an Autumn Budget".A case in point, only hours after Reeves delivered her statement in parliament, US President Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on cars and car parts coming into the US. 3. Car tariffs a sign worse could come Reeves admitted the car tariffs would be "bad for the UK" but insisted the government was in "extensive" talks to avoid them being imposed to the OBR, these import taxes would have a direct effect on goods totalling around 0.2% of Trump's announcement, the OBR had warned of the risk of an escalating trade war, and while the proposals do not exactly match the watchdog's worst-case scenario, which would see the UK retaliate, Hughes said it had elements of 0.2% is a tiny amount, nevertheless it will affect the economy. And in the OBR's worst-case scenario, 1% would be knocked off ecomic growth. Live: Follow the latest reaction to the Spring StatementKey points from the Spring Statement at a glanceThree ways the changes could affect you and your moneyWatch: Henry Zeffman on what you need to know... in 58 seconds 4. Uncertainty means firms and people don't spend Trump's trade policies and the fact that nobody seems to know whether he will follow through with his threats, U-turn on them, or how he will react to others is just one way his presidency is making the world so uncertain at the war in Ukraine continues, despite Trump's pledge to end it. The UK, along with Germany, has said it will increase defence spending. Trump has long called for European members of Nato to spend more on defence, and there are also fears that if the US does make a deal with Russia to end the war, that could leave Europe businesses are also facing a worrying time as they brace for a rise in costs in April as employers' National Insurance contributions, the National Living wage and business rates are all set to go firms have said they have put off investment decisions as a result, and many have warned of price rises or job cuts. If these materialise, then that will knock growth. 5. Break the rules or raise taxes Given all of the above, if the chancellor's headroom were to disappear, why would that matter?Reeves has staked her reputation on meeting her fiscal rules, pledging to bring "iron discipline" and provide stability and reassurance to financial markets, in contrast to former Prime Minister Liz Truss, whose unfunded tax cuts spooked the markets and raised interest if she is still to meet her rules and not borrow to fund day-to-day spending, that would mean either more spending cuts or tax government has already announced big cuts to the welfare bill as well as plans to cut the civil service and abolish several quangos including NHS as Paul Dale, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, puts it: "Non-defence spending can only be cut so far."By leaving herself so little wiggle room and with such a precarious economic outlook, "we can surely now expect six or seven months of speculation about what taxes might or might not be increased in the autumn," says Paul Johnson from the speculation itself can cause economic harm, he has not ruled out tax rises but told the BBC there were "opportunities" as well as "risks" for the UK economy.


BBC News
21-03-2025
- Health
- BBC News
Long Covid: 'I'm finally hopeful for the first time'
"At the moment I'm just happy my quality of life has improved, so I can actually function, not walk around Tesco and feel like I'm going to collapse."Ryan Cawley admits he still has a way to go, but is feeling "massively hopeful" for the first time since his "long Covid" diagnosis in 37-year-old is one of 72 people who have been taking part in a trial at the University of Derby to test if an anti-viral drug could cure people with the Mark Faghy, a professor in clinical exercise science who is leading the study, said there had been "positive indicators", but he was "cautious" and did not want "to get too carried away because we have to do the analysis on a study level". Chronic fatigue Long Covid patients suffer with a wide range of the initial infection with coronavirus, rather than getting better, patients are instead left dealing with any number of problems including fatigue, pain and breathing Cawley, of Macclesfield in Cheshire, says the illness has turned his life "upside down".He experienced chronic fatigue, which would leave him in bed for days, and brain fog so severe he couldn't read a "simple letter"."I can only describe it as, you feel like you've ran a marathon when you wake up, even though the day before you've probably done very little," he added: "I've not been on holiday, I used to play football and go to the gym, I couldn't do any of that." He used to work in banking and says his employer was "very good" about his absence, keeping his job open for him for two-and-a-half years."We tried to put in a plan for a phased return, but every time we tried, it was just too much, and it would wipe me out, and I could crash for a week or two," he Cawley added: "Ultimately I've lost my job because of long Covid, and I'm also having to sell my house because I'm not in a financial position to live where I am now."He inquired about being part of the long Covid trial in Derby after his mum sent him an online article about it on the was offered a place in autumn last year and has recently finished receiving his treatment. Patients taking part in the trial, which started in September 2024 and will end in June, undergo a series of tests before and after they are given anti-viral Faghy said there were "two million people living in the UK and over 65 million in the world who are living with or impacted by Covid and long Covid"."We've got people on this trial who are very young, were fit and healthy prior to having a Covid infection, people who have just retired and are not able to enjoy their retirement," he added."It has a real personal impact on everybody in various different ways, professionally, personally, even economically, we're seeing a big increase in people who aren't able to go to work, who aren't able to maintain employment, and that has bigger consequences down the line."Dr Faghy is hoping to "scale up" the trial in the next 12 to 18 months and is aiming for the next one to start around Easter 2026. He said: "We're just phasing out the data collection process and then the fun begins of trying to analyse and interpret and understand everything we have collected."We've seen some positive indicators that the treatment that we are using is showing some positive benefits, people are feeling more energy, less fatigued."Mr Cawley says he started to notice some changes the week after finishing his said: "I'm doing more, my memory is coming back, I am still getting a bit fatigued, but the difference now when I go to sleep, I actually feel refreshed when I wake up."I'm not fully better but it has made quite a significant difference."


BBC News
18-03-2025
- BBC News
Farmers fear criminal hare coursing gangs 'could kill someone'
Hare coursing has long roots in English history. Originally used for hunting, and later sport, it sees dogs chasing hares across rural fields. But once just a man and his dog, it has increasing become the "sport of choice" for criminal gangs, with speeding vehicles driven by men in balaclavas sweeping through the countryside. While police say the problem is being taken more seriously than ever before, some farmers are warning it is only a matter of time before someone is killed."These are people who would quite happily wipe you off the face of the earth without a second glance," one farmer told the and his wife have been describing the harrowing moment a hare coursing gang arrived after dark on their remote farm just off Salisbury Plain. "We could hear shouting and revving all over the place, our plan had been to go up the top of the hill to see how many there were and where, so we could give a better location to police," he couple had not meant to confront the visitors, but they were quickly surrounded by half a dozen vehicles. "I got out and I started shouting and roaring at them, just how dare people come and do this to our business, to our home," the farmer said. "How dare you come and threaten us."In a video filmed by one of those involved, the gang can be heard taunting the couple and while some urge others to leave the farmer alone, ballbearings from slingshots can be heard hitting the side of the farmer's vehicle before it is rammed. The gang were using the farmer's field for the illegal sport of hare coursing - which was outlawed in the UK under the Hunting Act 2004 and which police forces across the country say is increasingly carried out by organised and dangerous farmer's wife remained in the car on the phone to Wiltshire Police while the gang "rammed" them two or three times."They didn't care if you had stood there or not, they would have just run you over," she BBC has agreed not to identify the Wiltshire couple, who are still dealing with the trauma of what happened in November 2024. One man was initially arrested and later released, but with no faces to identify anyone and cloned number plates on the vehicles involved, the others got the incident the farmer suffered a mental health crisis and said he briefly considered taking his own life - before quickly seeking support from a mental health couple said they wanted to share their story so that people realise what rural communities are up against."You feel very alone and isolated," the farmer's wife said."When someone is screaming down the phone at 999 'hare coursing is going on', it is not some old boy with a dog, it is serious crime and these people are dangerous." The couple are full of praise for the local rural police team who have supported them, but said there are far too few officers assigned to looking into the farmer, David Lemon, said hare coursing has become like "guerrilla warfare" in his area on the Wiltshire-Hampshire border."We get visited by hare coursers probably every other day," Mr Lemon said. "There's been a huge increase in their willingness to commit violence to farmers and gamekeepers, anybody who tries to stop them doing what they do." Once the harvest has cleared the fields, the vast and remote chalk hills attract the hare coursers and poachers. The season runs from the end of the harvest until the spring, before the crops get too high."In the old days they used to run away, now they run towards you," said the third-generation farmer, who worries where things are heading."I just think a farmer will overreact, or they [the gangs] will think it's fun and games and take it too far," Mr Lemon said."This is going to end in a mess and I genuinely think someone is going to be, dare I say, killed." "This is the reality of what rural communities are dealing with and they are terrified," said Claire Wright, from the Country Land and Business Association (CLA).The CLA represents thousands of small rural businesses and Ms Wright described to the BBC incidents of gamekeepers who have been beaten up."One of our members had his nose broken with an iron bar when he just got in the way accidentally," she said. Another was spat at in the face by a man who claimed to have HIV, she CLA said farmers can help protect their property by digging ditches to make it harder for vehicles to get onto fields, and it is urging communities to alert police and neighbours to anything suspicious. But police bosses are balancing resources against other serious crime - and because the official crime statistics do not specifically record hare coursing, there is little reliable data to establish the true scale of the problem."The hardcore few are doubling down on their tactics, the crime they are committing is far more extreme than it used to be," said Ch Insp Kevin Lacks-Kelly, the head of the National Wildlife Crime Unit."These are criminals and in their pastime this is their sport of choice", with the majority of those caught being linked to a wide range of other serious and organised crime, he added. 'The criminal underbelly' The chief inspector said that betting rings and the selling of dogs can see "tens and tens of thousands of pounds" exchanging hands each unit works with police forces across the country to improve training and coordinate responses, which he said is finally "lifting the lid on the criminal underbelly of hare coursing".Police forces like Wiltshire have been diverting more resources into tackling rural crime, with more than a dozen arrests for hare coursing in the first two months of this year."We now have a completely different approach to rural crime than we've had for years," said Wiltshire's Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) Philip Wilkinson, who said it is now considered "a high priority". In practice, the PCC says, this means the small rural crime team "can now call on the whole force as their cavalry", from drones to road policing to armed a joint operation with Thames Valley, Hampshire and Gloucestershire police forces to target suspected offenders earlier this month, he added: "This is a national threat we are trying to deal with." If you are suffering distress or despair, details of help and support are available at BBC Action Line.


BBC News
13-03-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
Abbey Cemetery plans aim to extend Redditch's burial provision
Plans to repurpose part of a cemetery will extend burial provision in a town by 10 years, a council has Redditch Borough Council said its executive committee had decided more burials would be carried out on an open part of the Abbey Cemetery, next to Redditch said new options for longer-term burial provision in the borough would also be Conservative group leader councillor Matt Dormer said the plans were "utterly insensitive", as the site had been used for people to scatter the ashes of loved ones for many years. "Nobody's comfortable with this," he told the added people who had scattered ashes on the land believed it was council said it acknowledged the "seriousness and sensitivity" of the issue."There will be families who, over the years, have used some of that open space at the Abbey Cemetery to scatter loved ones' ashes," said councillor Sharon Harvey, the authority's portfolio holder for environmental asked anyone directly affected by the change to "come and talk to us"."We want to work with you to ensure that your needs are met, including considering new memorial features to honour those loved ones," she said. Labour councillors, who took control of the authority in May last year, cancelled a previous plan for a new cemetery on Ipsley Church Lane put forward by Conservatives when they were in said "absolutely everything" had been done, including soil testing, to prepare the site to be the next cemetery."It's a slight gradient so its not like it's a flat surface that can be used for recreational activities - it is used for dog walking, it is used for runners, that can all remain," Dormer the authority's leader, councillor Joe Baker, said many residents had opposed those plans, and other options would now be considered in the committee also agreed to commission a review of the potential for another site off Battens Drive to be used. Follow BBC Hereford & Worcester on BBC Sounds, Facebook, X and Instagram.


BBC News
12-03-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
Pakistan train: Passengers recall 'doomsday scenes' after hijack
Passengers who were freed from a train seized by armed militants have spoken of "doomsday scenes" that unfolded on board the Jaffar Express in Pakistan's Balochistan province."We held our breath throughout the firing, not knowing what would happen next," Ishaq Noor, who was one of those on board, told the was one of more than 400 passengers travelling from Quetta to Peshawar on Tuesday when the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) attacked and took a number hostage. Rescue operations are continuing. Military sources claim 155 passengers have been freed and 27 militants killed. There is no independent confirmation. More than a dozen freed passengers were taken to hospital for treatment. Security forces say they have deployed hundreds of troops to rescue the remaining passengers. Authorities have also deployed helicopters and special forces BLA has warned of "severe consequences" if an attempt is made to rescue hostages. Reports quoting security officials say some of the militants may have left the train, taking an unknown number of passengers with them into the surrounding mountainous area. At least 100 of those on the train were members of the security forces, officials have said. Muhammad Ashraf, who was travelling from Quetta to Lahore to visit family, was among a group of passengers who managed to disembark the train late on Tuesday."There was a lot of fear among the passengers. It was a scene of doomsday," he group then walked for nearly four hours to the next railway station. Several of the men carried the weaker passengers on their shoulders. "We reached the station with great difficulty, because we were tired and there were children and women with us," he Noor, who was travelling with his wife and two children, said the initial explosion on the train was "so intense" that one of his children fell from the and his wife each tried to shield one child amidst the gunfire. "If a bullet comes our way, it will hit us and not the children," he said. Mushtaq Muhammad, who was in the train's third carriage, recalled the "unforgettable" attack and passengers stricken with panic."The attackers were talking to each other in Balochi, and their leader repeatedly told them to 'keep an eye' particularly on the security personnel to make sure that [the attackers] do not lose them," he said. The attackers started to release some Balochistan residents, as well as women, children and elderly passengers, on Tuesday evening, Mr Ishaq said, adding that he was let go when he told them he was a resident of Turbat city in Balochistan, and they saw that he had children and women with it is still unclear how many passengers are still being held hostage. Security forces say they have launched a major operation to rescue remaining passengers, deploying hundreds of troops. Authorities have also deployed helicopters and special forces Wednesday, the BBC saw dozens of wooden coffins being loaded at Quetta railway station. A railway official said they were empty and being transported to collect any possible casualties. The BLA has warned of "severe consequences" if an attempt was made to rescue those it is holding. 'Gravely concerned' The BLA has waged a decades-long insurgency to gain independence and has launched numerous deadly attacks, often targeting police stations, railway lines and operations in impoverished Balochistan by Pakistan's army and security forces have reportedly seen thousands of people disappear without trace since the early 2000s. The security forces are accused of crimes including torture and extra-judicial killings, allegations they authorities - as well as several Western countries, including the UK and US - have designated the group a terrorist Human Rights Commission of Pakistan said it is "gravely concerned" by the train hijack. "We strongly urge all relevant stakeholders to forge an urgent rights-based, pro-people consensus on the issues faced by citizens in Balochistan and to find a peaceful, political solution," it said in a statement on X. The United Nations' Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has "strongly condemned" the train siege and also called for the immediate release of remaining passengers. Additional Reporting by Azadeh Moshiri