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BBC News
05-03-2025
- Business
- BBC News
Where can the government cut billions from the welfare budget?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has earmarked "several billion pounds" in draft spending cuts to welfare ahead of her Spring Statement, according to the asked about the welfare budget, the Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood said: "Our current situation is unsustainable… we've seen a huge rise in that welfare budget."BBC Verify has examined this budget and where the cuts might fall. How big is the welfare budget? Before looking at where the welfare budget might be cut, it is necessary to understand the size of the budget and how it has the time of the October 2024 Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that total spending on health and disability benefits would rise from £64.7bn in 2023-24 to £100.7bn in 2029-30. And the OBR projected that the biggest contributor to this increase would be from welfare spending on working-age adults, defined as those aged between 16 and OBR projected spending on this sector would rise from £48.5bn in 2023-24 to £75.7bn in 2029-30. Why is the welfare bill growing? The OBR cited rising numbers of people coming on to incapacity and disability benefits as driving its latest forecaster is essentially assuming the trend of rising benefits claims in recent years will the five years after 2009-2010, more people were coming off incapacity benefits than on. But in recent years - and especially since the 2020-21 Covid pandemic - more people have been coming on to benefits than off the OBR forecast the share of the working-age population in receipt of an incapacity benefit would rise from 7% in 2024 to a record high of 7.9% in reasons for this are not totally experts point to the damaging and lasting impact of the pandemic on physical reference the rise in mental ill health, especially among younger Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that the number of people aged 18 to 24 who are not in education, employment or training (Neet) rose to 907,000 at the end of last year, a 30% increase on the level before the pandemic in 2020 (although the ONS also cautioned the survey used to collect the data was potentially unreliable).Other experts place the emphasis on financial incentives in the welfare system - where people can get higher payments for being on sickness benefits than from being unemployed or in low-paid, part-time standard allowance for a single person on Universal Credit is £311.68 per month. If someone is deemed to have "limited capacity for work-related activity", the criteria to receive incapacity benefits, they are eligible for an extra £416.19 per month on there is no consensus on what's causing the trend."It is not yet known what factors are driving this increase," says Eduin Latimer of the Institute for Fiscal Studies."Figuring out what is behind the recent rise must surely be a top priority for the government if it is going to be able to respond appropriately." Which elements of the welfare bill might be cut? Ministers have not said where they will seek cuts, but the largest element of the working-age welfare bill is incapacity or long-term sickness benefits - paid via Universal Credit or the legacy system of Employment and Support the government wants to make significant savings from the working-age welfare bill it will probably need to find some savings the second largest single element of the working-age welfare bill is Personal Independence Payments (PIP) - a benefit for people under state pension age who need help with daily activities because of a long-term illness or disability. PIP claimants can be in 2023-24, PIP totalled £18bn and that's projected to almost double to £34bn by 2029-30. That would mean the number of claimants rising from 2.7 million to 4.2 with the rise in the overall welfare bill, there's no consensus among experts on what's driving rising PIP claims, but this is also somewhere the government might well look to make some previous Conservative government had explored making it harder for younger people with mental health conditions to claim PIP. Can significant savings be made? Many experts, such as the Resolution Foundation think tank and the Institute for Employment Studies, agree that more working-age people should be helped and encouraged into work, and that there is a case for reform of the working-age welfare some argue that making sustainable, long-term savings requires upfront government investment in employment support programmes - schemes which aim to help people overcome barriers to getting into also warn that reducing spending on the welfare bill has been historically the 2015 general election, the Conservative manifesto promised to cut £12bn from the annual welfare some significant savings were initially found, ministers were forced to change policy after a political backlash over some of the OBR later concluded £4bn of the £12bn a year promised cuts had not been achieved. What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?
BBC News
04-03-2025
- BBC News
Shahzadi Khan: Indian woman executed in UAE for killing infant
An Indian woman who worked as a domestic helper in Abu Dhabi has been executed after she was convicted for killing her employer's Khan was executed last month in Abu Dhabi, according to the Indian family has maintained that she was innocent and that the four-month-old died from an incorrect also alleged that Khan did not get "adequate representation" during her trial. The BBC has contacted the UAE authorities for comment. Khan, 33, had moved to Abu Dhabi in 2021 to work for an Indian family as a infant was born the following year. According to Khan's father, she would often call her family back in the north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh and show them the infant over video calls. But the calls soon stopped - and the family later learnt that Khan was in to Khan's family, the child had died on 7 December 2022 and Khan was arrested weeks later. She was sentenced to death by an Abu Dhabi court in July last spoke to her family on 13 February from prison, saying that she might be executed the next day."She kept crying and said she was put in a separate cell, and that she would not come out alive and that it might be her last call," her father Shabbir Khan told the Khan's family did not hear from her after that, they filed a petition with the Delhi High Court, seeking information from the Indian government on whether she had been response, the government said they were told that Khan was executed on 15 February. The family said they felt Khan did not have "adequate representation" which resulted in her receiving the death an interview with the Press Trust of India, her father Shabbir Khan said: "She didn't get justice. I have tried everywhere, running around since last year. But I didn't have money to go there [Abu Dhabi] to hire a lawyer."In an earlier statement released to BBC Hindi following her conviction, Khan's employer said that "Shahzadi brutally and intentionally killed my son which is already proven by the United Arab Emirates authorities in the light of all the evidence"."Misleading information has been provided to media and other authorities to gain [their] sympathy and shift the focus from the actual crime which she committed."In February, the Indian government informed the parliament that a total of 54 Indians were on death row in foreign countries, including 29 in the BBC News India on Instagram, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook
