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Sky News
28-05-2025
- Business
- Sky News
A potential water war in the making: Crucial India-Pakistan agreement hangs in the balance
A potential water war is in the making after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty. The decision came in retaliation to terror attacks in Kashmir, which were followed by a four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Pakistan says, if not reversed, it amounts to an act of war. India's response - blood and water cannot flow together. What is the Indus Water Treaty? The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs how the six rivers that flow through India are shared. While India gets unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers - the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, Pakistan is allotted the lion's share of the three western rivers - the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. The average annual flow of the western rivers (135.6 million acre ft) is more than four times that of the eastern ones (32.6 million acre ft). Though India can use a fraction of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, it has to eventually release all the waters downstream. Surinder Thapa, former chief engineer of the Baglihar Dam, who has been associated with the Indus Water Treaty Commission over the past 20 years, told Sky News: "It's totally a biased treaty as it was not negotiated on minute technical parameters as there is unequal share of the volume of water. "India has suffered and is still struggling with its water projects. Some have even closed because they have become economically unviable." How India could respond India demanded a modification of the treaty under Article XII in 2023, to take into consideration its changing demographics, water and energy requirements, climate change disaster mitigation, and cross-border terrorism. The treaty has provisions for modification under certain circumstances - but there are no clauses for unilateral exit or suspension. India is taking its position as a legal decision under international law. It cannot stop water from flowing across the border, as it lacks storage infrastructure and the capacity to divert large amounts of water. But there are ways in which India could potentially harm its neighbour - by not sharing data on the volume of water in the rivers, withholding flow or releasing or even tampering with the volume, that could affect agriculture, power generation, consumption, and even cause floods in Pakistan. 3:09 Pakistan's reliance on the network More than 80% of Pakistan's irrigated land is watered by the Indus network. Agriculture is its backbone, employing more than half its population and contributing almost a quarter of its GDP. It is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Disruption to its rivers would have massive effects on its economy and people. Across the border in Pakistan, farmers are worried about the uncertainty of its neighbour. Muhammad Nawaz, a farmer from Nikaiyan Da Kot in Gujrat, Pakistan, told Sky News: "Our government must respond, we already have nothing, and if they stop giving us water, then what is left for us." Hassan Ullah, who lives in the village of Kot Nikka, said: "India is violating the agreements made with the government. Pakistan should take up this issue at the international level." Since the suspension, India has carried out flushing and desilting of its dams - helping to increase its storage and making its hydropower projects more efficient. Mr Thapa said: "For all these years we cooperated 120% with Pakistan but they kept raising irrelevant technical questions only to delay our projects - causing huge financial losses. "We don't want to bleed people in Pakistan, but we are left with no option but to teach them a lesson of how much sacrifice we have made. "We need to make huge storage dams and navigation projects with no checks by anyone anymore." Recent India-Pakistan conflict The fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours worried the world when both countries attacked each other. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of livelihoods were destroyed on both sides of the border. The village of Kot Maira in Akhnur district, just a couple of miles from the Pakistan border, has been one of the most targeted in the region. Bari Ram, 59, had a miraculous escape. He left his home with his son just a few minutes before artillery shells destroyed it, killing all his cattle. He told Sky News: "This happened after the ceasefire, everything is destroyed. We can't sleep as we don't know when the next bomb will fall." In a hospital room in Jammu, 46-year-old Rameez is having his wounds dressed. He's not completely out of danger as shrapnel is still embedded in his liver and ribs. He's already lost a lot of blood and doctors don't want to operate on him just yet. But it's not the physical pain that traumatises him as much as the loss of his twins, 12-year-olds Zoya and Zain. They got caught up in heavy Pakistani shelling when they tried to escape from their home. Their aunt Maria Khan told Sky News: "The bombs fell behind them while they were getting out, Zoya was hit at the back of her head, her ribs were broken and she was bleeding. "My brother picked her up and within seconds she died in his arms. He saw a neighbour trying to resuscitate Zain, but he had already died." Unable to hold back tears, she added: "That's why us who live on the border areas want only peace. We know and experience the effects of real war. Our innocent children have died. This pain is unbearable and unreplaceable."


India.com
25-04-2025
- Politics
- India.com
India vs Pakistan War: How much time will it take to stop Pakistan's water under Indus Water Treaty? It is not easy for India due to...
India vs Pakistan War: How much time will it take to stop Pakistan's water under Indus Water Treaty? It is not easy for India due to... After the terrorist attack in Pahalgam which claimed 26 lives, India has taken five major decisions to teach Pakistan a lesson. The biggest decision in the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting is to suspend the Indus Water Treaty. India has said that as long as Pakistan continues to support terrorism, India will not implement this treaty. This decision of India is being considered a big blow against Pakistan. In fact, 90 percent of the cultivable land of Pakistan's Sindh and Punjab provinces is dependent on the water provided under the Indus Water Treaty for its water needs. In such a situation, if India stops the water of rivers like Chenab, Jhelum and Indus, then there can be an outcry in Pakistan. By stopping the water, not only will Pakistan's cultivable land be on the verge of drying up, but drinking water and power projects will also suffer a major setback. Pakistan will have to bear the brunt of economic distress due to this step of India. However, now the question is whether it is so easy to cancel the Indus Water Treaty? Can India stop the water of all three rivers overnight? How much time will it take India to stop the water of these three rivers? What is Indus Water Treaty India and Pakistan signed an agreement in 1960 regarding the use of water from the rivers of the Indus water system. Under this agreement, India can use the water of the three eastern rivers Sutlej, Beas and Ravi. On the other hand, Pakistan was given rights over the water of the western rivers Jhelum, Chenab and Indus. The point to note here is that in the agreement that India signed with Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty, it kept only 20 percent of the water of the entire river system with itself. In exchange for peace, India allowed Pakistan to use 80 percent of the water. Can the water of the three rivers be stopped overnight? The decision taken by India by suspending the Indus Water Treaty clearly means that India will no longer allow Pakistan to use the water of the western rivers i.e. Jhelum, Chenab and Indus river, but the question is, is it that easy? Actually, India currently does not have the infrastructure to stop this water from reaching Pakistan overnight. Even if India does this by building dams or storing water, there can be severe floods in states like Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. So how long will it take to stop the water? Looking at the current situation, India has planned four projects on the three western rivers. Two of these are operational and preparations are underway for two more. India has started the Baglihar Dam and Ratle Project on Chenab, which is part of Pakistan. Pakal Dul Project has been started on Marusudar, another tributary of Chenab, and Kishanganga Project on Neelam, a tributary of Jhelum. Out of these, only Baglihar Dam and Kishanganga Project are operational. In such a situation, if India stops the water of the three rivers that are part of Pakistan, then it is likely to take a lot of time. Actually, India will have to prepare infrastructure to use millions of cusecs of water received from these three rivers. Pakistan experts are also saying the same thing. Pakistani leaders say that India cannot stop the water received under the Indus Water Treaty overnight, so they have enough time to fight a legal battle against this decision of India.