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Japan is stepping back from NATO, not Indo-Pacific ties—China is watching the cracks closely
But this year's NATO summit told a different story. Only New Zealand's Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, is participating. Japan and other key Indo-Pacific countries are conspicuously absent. The gap between Western strategic ambitions and regional realities is on full display. Japan also cancelled its 2+2 security talks with the US, a telling signal of unease about Washington's relentless push for Tokyo to ramp up defence spending.
A commentary published on Baidu Baijiahao pointed to NATO's evolution from a regional defence bloc into what is now seen as an overstretched force projecting power far beyond the North Atlantic. Japan's increasing proximity to NATO and its willingness to speak on China's internal affairs are cast as foreign interference with potentially destabilising consequences. On the Chinese microblogging site, Weibo , a post framed Japan's engagement with NATO as part of an inflated China threat narrative.
China has long criticised the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, for drawing Indo-Pacific countries—Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—into its orbit. From Beijing's perspective, this marks a troubling effort to export Western military influence to Asia and to contain China's rise. Among Chinese observers, the prospect of Japan aligning more closely with NATO has sparked particular concern.
Japan rethinking Western ties
Pan Wanli, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, described Japan as a 'springboard' for foreign powers seeking to enter the Asia-Pacific. He warned that it's a strategy that could escalate geopolitical rivalry and threaten regional stability. Another commentator branded Japan as the cornerstone of American hegemony in East Asia.
But there is a shift in the tone of Chinese discourse: Japan may be slowly distancing itself from its traditional role as the West's most reliable partner in Asia. What once seemed like temporary hesitation now appears to some Chinese analysts as a deeper strategic rethink. With President Donald Trump consumed by multiple global crises and his desire to be a peacemaker, the Indo-Pacific seems to have slipped from Washington's immediate focus, and Tokyo is paying attention.
Chinese reporter Zhao Shifeng noted Japan's abrupt backpedalling on the 2+2 talks—once seen as a diplomatic priority—as a sign of growing discomfort with the direction of the US-Japan alliance. From Beijing's vantage point, Japan's reluctance to deepen ties with NATO and increased military exchanges speaks volumes.
For Chinese observers, Japan's approach signals a delicate balancing act: staying engaged, while laying low key, resisting entanglement in a new great-power rivalry, and avoiding being on the US' side in the Iran-Israel conflict. This is not merely caution. Chinese analysts frame it as a broader strategic awakening: a resistance to Cold War-style blocs imposed by external powers.
Xiang Haoyu, a researcher in the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies, China Institute of International Studies, described Japan as NATO's vanguard in the Asia-Pacific. But he argues the alliance is fraying under the weight of American pressure, ranging from defence spending demands to trade barriers. Already burdened by debt and demographic challenges, Xiang says, Japan has resisted calls to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP. It remains constrained by its pacifist constitution and dependency on the US. As Xiang sees it, 'America First' is pushing allies too far, demanding more while offering less.
Another strand in Chinese commentary argues that the alliance has become a numbers game. By tying coordination to military budgets, the US has turned a cooperative relationship into a zero-sum contest, one that Japan is increasingly unwilling to play at the cost of economic stability and public welfare.
Also read: NATO chief expresses concern over China's rapid military buildup in Taiwan
Investing in regional ties
Despite the US drift, Japan is not stepping back from the region. It is stepping up, and on its own terms. Chinese commentators have noted Tokyo's subtle but deliberate efforts to reconfigure its Indo-Pacific role, embracing a more independent and self-defined strategy.
Young Chinese scholars—Li Jiaxing, Zhao Jingyuan, Yang Xiaojie, and Wu Xiang—have identified Japan's Indo-Pacific strategy as one rooted in maritime strength. They argue, Japan is consciously positioning itself apart from land-based continental powers, investing in naval capabilities and regional defence integration. Its goal is clear: to unite like-minded maritime states to balance China's growing clout.
There is growing realisation in China that Japan, while cautious with the US, is deepening ties with regional partners like India, Australia, and the Philippines. Its defence diplomacy is expanding beyond formal alliances, Japan is holding joint exercises with the Philippines and participating in the Malabar naval drills alongside India.
A Weibo post warned that Japan and the Philippines are tightening their coordination and preparing for joint military action against China. Whether or not that is hyperbole, the perception is that Japan's defence outreach is accelerating.
In a move that caught the attention of Chinese media, Japan plans to deliver defence equipment to eight countries, namely Thailand, Tonga, East Timor, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. This initiative spans Southeast Asia and the South Pacific, covering what one post colourfully described as 'half the geography textbook.'
From Beijing's perspective, the Japan-US alliance remains a concern. While Trump's diminished focus on the Indo-Pacific may offer temporary relief, it does not fundamentally change the regional equation or threat perception. Even in America's partial absence, Japan is holding the fort, taking the lead in collective defence and playing an increasingly active role in maintaining the region's fragile security balance.
Sana Hashmi is fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)
