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Rising rice prices fueling consumer shift toward noodles, pasta
Udon and tempura rice bowl combo meals, priced at 399 yen before tax, at an Ito-Yokado store in Tokyo's Ota Ward on May 22 (Sho Ito)
Japanese consumers have made a sharp shift away from high-priced rice to noodles and other cost-effective staples, the start of a possible sea-change in diets in the country, retailers and industry experts say.
Supermarkets and convenience store chains have ramped up development and production of such non-rice items for price-conscious consumers as AI-driven market forecasts suggest rice will remain expensive in the years to come.
Major supermarket chain Ito-Yokado Co., for example, expanded its range of combination meals that pair 'udon' noodles with rice bowls, or 'donburi.'
While the ever-popular 'tendon'—steamed rice topped with assorted tempura—remains a mainstay, the company in March introduced several new options, such as 'sauce katsu-don,' featuring a breaded, deep-fried pork cutlet drizzled with a Worcestershire-style sauce, and 'karaage-don,' topped with crispy, deep-fried marinated chicken.
These items are priced at 430 yen, including tax, and have been selling well.
'We're seeing noticeable shifts in consumer behavior and home dining habits,' said Masashi Nakatsubo, general manager of Ito-Yokado's prepared foods division.
He said shoppers are gravitating toward noodle-based meals as a cost-effective alternative to expensive rice dishes.
The company is not only accelerating development of combination dishes but is also enhancing its lineup of standalone noodle dishes to broaden their appeal.
One standout is 'Bara-ten Himokawa Udon,' a regional specialty from Gunma Prefecture featuring wide, ribbon-like 'himokawa' noodles topped with assorted tempura.
Introduced in March at the same price point of 430 yen, the dish has quickly become the chain's best-selling noodle item.
'Its novelty, affordability and generous portion size have really struck a chord with customers,' Nakatsubo said.
Ito-Yokado continues to expand its product lineup in response to evolving consumer tastes, introducing such options as 'Neapolitan,' a Japanese pasta dish featuring spaghetti stir-fried in a sweet and tangy ketchup-based sauce.
Priced at 430 yen, the dish is prepared in-house to keep production costs low and maintain affordability.
This initiative is part of a broader industry trend, as major retailers pivot to diversify their ready-made meal offerings amid persistently high rice prices.
In March, convenience store chain Lawson Inc. launched a new series of 'Yokubari Gattai Meshi' (generous combo meals,) which pair two popular dishes in a single container.
Offerings such as 'Fried Rice & Chinese-style Yakisoba (stir-fried wheat noodles)' and 'Omurice (omelet combined with fried rice) & Neapolitan,' both priced at 743 yen, have been smash hits.
Cumulative sales of these items have already surpassed 2 million units, prompting the company to roll out additional items later this month.
In a related move, Lawson also debuted its 'Okazu-don!' series in March. These rice bowls feature a smaller serving of rice offset by hearty portions of noodles and side dishes, offering a well-balanced and satisfying meal. The concept has resonated with budget-conscious shoppers, and Lawson plans to expand the lineup.
Other alternatives to rice, such as 'mochi-mugi' (glutinous Japanese pearl barley), a type of barley with a chewy texture due to its high beta-glucan content, are also gaining popularity.
At Natural Lawson, a health-focused sub-brand with about 130 stores concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area, all chilled bento meals have included rice blended with mochi-mugi since March.
High-end supermarket Seijo Ishii is also making adjustments.
By the end of May, its popular 'Soup Rice Featuring Japanese Chicken Soboro (ground meat cooked and crumbled into fine, small pieces) and '16-Grain Mix and Four Beans' will incorporate mochi-mugi, in addition to the existing multigrain blend.
POPULAR PASTA
Such trends are expected to continue.
'Due partly to the ongoing rice shortage and rising prices, shipments of pasta and pasta sauces have seen significant growth,' Eiichi Suzuki, managing executive officer at major food manufacturer Nisshin Seifun Group Inc., said at a recent earnings briefing.
The company estimates pasta sales for fiscal 2024 rose 3.4 percent year on year.
'Pasta's versatility in flavor and sauce combinations makes it an appealing choice for consumers looking to avoid mealtime monotony,' a company spokesperson said.
In some supermarkets, where rice stock-outs have become common, customers are even being directed to the pasta aisle.
At Pietro Co., a Fukuoka-based food manufacturer known for its pasta sauces, sales of pasta-related products surged by 30 percent year on year in fiscal 2024.
'The appearance rate of pasta on dinner tables rose by about 15 percent in February,' said Shinichi Miyagawa, representative director and senior managing director. 'The impact of rice price hikes was certainly a contributing factor.'
Even simple noodle condiments are experiencing a surge in demand.
Kikkoman Corp.'s 'Gumen' series of six ready-made noodle sauces with flavorful toppings saw sales climb more than 10 percent in March and April compared with the same period last year.
A standout performer was the 'Gumen Hakata Mentaiko Udon,' featuring spicy marinated pollock roe ('mentaiko'), which more than doubled its sales from the previous year.
PROLONGED HIGH RICE PRICES
Tasuku Kashiwamura, a senior researcher at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc., used AI-driven modeling to forecast retail rice prices per 5 kilograms from 2025 through 2027.
His analysis points to a 55-percent likelihood that rice prices could surpass 4,500 yen by 2027. There is also a 30-percent chance of a steady and prolonged price increase.
In a more optimistic scenario, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said during a recent Diet session that rice prices should stabilize or fall back into the 3,000 yen range.
Kashiwamura's AI model showed there is just a 15-percent probability of this happening.
He cautioned that sustained high prices may prompt consumers to reduce their rice consumption, shift to lower-priced brands, or increasingly turn to alternative staples.
'If the food service industry begins to pass these costs on to consumers, we could also see a decline in dining out,' he said.
(This article was written by Sho Ito, Masaki Hashida and Shinya Matsumoto.)
