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New York Times
12-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Eno Sarris' 2025 starting pitcher fantasy rankings with Stuff+ powered projections
For years, it's been harder to project pitchers than hitters — for a whole host of reasons. They get injured more and stay injured longer, yes, but they also see their performance change dramatically and quickly in ways that hitters don't. Think of a pitcher debuting a new pitch: He's probably a whole new pitcher now, not just the same guy who will return to his previous norms. There really isn't a corollary for hitters. Advertisement But analysts have been hard at work narrowing the gaps. New tools that incorporate physical data from pitches as well as the pitchers' bodies, paired with better statistical techniques, have improved our pitcher projections. The rankings here attempt to synthesize contemporary research the best way we can. That work includes metrics that will be published here, as well as some behind-the-scenes help: • Pitching+ and the associated Stuff+ and Location+ models • Jordan Rosenblum's stuff-powered projections (ppERA% and ppK%) • Jeff Zimmerman's health grades, which he publishes in The Process • Baseball Prospectus' new arsenal grades • Hand-projected innings totals based on health grades, team tendencies, and depth charts The very best pitchers have elite Stuff+. They locate the ball well as evidenced by their historical walk and Location+ rates. They project well once their park, age, and relevant production are correctly weighted. They have good health grades based on their fastball velocity, age, and number and timing of arm injuries. And they have wide arsenals that can surprise the hitter with a mix of different pitches, shapes and velocities. They've built up the bulk needed to go deep into the season and are on a team likely to go with a standard five-man rotation. Well, wait, that's just Paul Skenes. For everyone else, we have to figure out how to weigh their different strengths and flaws. That introduces some human bias, but also some opportunity, because every projection system makes its own choices about what goes into the meat grinder, and so there's a little subjectivity in every effort anyway. A human might just find the pitchers who fall between the cracks in every system. As an example, Stuff+ has fared remarkably well in predicting the future based on a single model that uses only physical characteristics of pitches as inputs, but as the marketplace has produced more versions of the statistic, it was time for a refresh. The newest numbers, found here and also at FanGraphs in sortable leaderboards, split the single model into multiple ones (swing, take, foul, ball in play, etc), and added features like arm slot (which recently became available at Baseball Savant). In the future, we may find a way to fold in the type of arsenal work being done at Baseball Prospectus and Driveline into the stuff models to have a better idea of how starter's pitch mixes work, how they change performance and how they can be optimized. Advertisement In the meantime, a human can try to look at these different models and weigh them the best they can. This is a fantasy ranking, so a tough home park might hide the fact that some of these pitchers would be ranked higher in different parks. My bias is toward 15-team leagues with no injured list — you may find that if your league has unlimited IL spots, you'd want to push up the pitchers with great per-inning numbers and lower innings projections. They shouldn't be hard to find; they ended up clustered together. In a shallower league, you may also want to skip over some of the more boring veterans in the back half of the top 100 in favor of riskier, younger pitchers with less of a track record (say, pick a Kumar Rocker or Jackson Jobe over a Mitch Keller or Max Scherzer). If they don't work out, your wire is more likely to have a decent replacement waiting for you. As with years past, this google doc will house some goodies during the season like minor league Stuff+ numbers as well as deeper looks at the player pool. Last year, these ranks produced cheap gems like Seth Lugo, Nestor Cortes, Cristopher Sánchez, Michael King, Bryan Woo, Shota Imanaga, Luis Gil and Jared Jones — along with some mistakes we can learn from. Best of luck as you search for the right pitching staff in your leagues this year. (Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Chris Szagola / Associated Press; Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire; Duane Burleson / Associated Press)
Los Angeles Times
11-02-2025
- Sport
- Los Angeles Times
Dodgers spring training live updates: Latest news and analysis from Arizona
Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani. How will Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts look? 4 things to watch at Dodgers spring training Fans walk past a mural of Dodgers players during DodgerFest at Dodger Stadium earlier this month. PHOENIX — Ninety-nine percent. According to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system, that is the Dodgers' likelihood of making the playoffs this year. A whopping 99.4%, to be exact, before a single pitch has even been thrown.
Los Angeles Times
10-02-2025
- Sport
- Los Angeles Times
How will Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts look? 4 things to watch at Dodgers spring training
PHOENIX — Ninety-nine percent. According to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system, that is the Dodgers' likelihood of making the playoffs this year. A whopping 99.4%, to be exact, before a single pitch has even been thrown. It's just the latest example of the unrelenting expectations facing the Dodgers in this new season. After bolstering their World Series-winning roster with a hefty winter spending spree, anything short of the playoffs is unthinkable. And as they try to become MLB's first repeat champion in a quarter century, any other than a title defense would feel like a failure. 'The expectation for our group every year is the win the World Series,' general manager Brandon Gomes said last week. 'That's no different this year.' What is different, however, is the level of talent and depth the Dodgers have amassed at seemingly each position group, from a star-studded starting rotation to a versatile and veteran lineup of hitters. As a result, there aren't many concerns confronting the team as it opens spring training at Camelback Ranch in Arizona on Tuesday. But, with the team just four weeks away from its season-opening trip to Japan, here are four questions to monitor in camp ahead of the 2025 season. Really, Shohei Ohtani is returning from two surgeries this spring. As a hitter, he spent much of the winter recovering from shoulder surgery on the torn labrum he suffered in the World Series. As a pitcher, he is still completing the final steps of his comeback from a 2023 Tommy John revision. Because of that, intrigue will follow every one of Ohtani's batting practice, bullpen and live BP sessions. As he tries to return to two-way mastery this season, spring training should give an early sign of if he's physically capable of doing it. The Dodgers' concern about Ohtani as a hitter has been low, with team officials noting that his shoulder surgery was to his back left arm — which should impact his swing less than if it were his lead right arm. Ohtani is expected to be ready to hit by opening day. The real question could be how he looks on the mound in his return from the second major elbow surgery of his career, and how long it takes him to make his debut as a pitcher in the regular season. Manager Dave Roberts set a tentative target of May for Ohtani's pitching return, though left open the possibility it could be sooner. Ohtani himself said his timeline will depend on how he feels once he starts throwing bullpen sessions in camp. When it comes to the Dodgers' lineup, there's really only one uncertainty. The Mookie Betts-return-to-shortstop experiment is underway. And after inconsistent defense and a hand injury derailed his progress at the position last year, much could depend on Betts' ability to improve as a shortstop this season. If Betts can stick at shortstop, it would free Tommy Edman up to play more center field. It would allow Korean signing Hyeseong Kim to get more time at his primary position of second base. And, it would cement Betts' status as one of the game's all-time great defenders, accomplishing an almost unprecedented mid-career position switch from right field. But first, the 31-year-old will have to showcase better fundamentals — especially with his throws, which accounted for eight of his nine errors last year — during spring camp and the early part of the season. This is the definition of a champagne problem. Between Ohtani, new signings Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, and returning frontline arms Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers could have five ace-caliber pitchers in 2025. Figuring out exactly how they line up in a starting rotation, however, is a task with seemingly endless solutions. Snell had the best season of the group in 2024, posting a 3.12 ERA over 20 total starts and a dazzling 1.23 ERA over his final 14 outings (including his first career no-hitter in August). Yamamoto and Glasnow both had sub-3.50 ERAs, albeit while missing significant portions of the year with injury. And though Sasaki will be a 23-year-old rookie coming over from Japan, he could possess as much raw talent as anyone else on the pitching staff, with an upper-90s mph fastball and wipeout splitter. Not since the rollercoaster Craig Kimbrel experience of 2022 have the Dodgers had a designated closer in the bullpen. But, after spending $72 million on top free-agent reliever Tanner Scott last month, it's possible that could change this year. The Dodgers have not officially called Scott their closer yet, with Gomes saying the team could still use a matchup-based, closer-by-committee approach at Scott's introductory news conference. But, even then, Gomes said Scott would likely get 'a lot of save opportunities.' And on Sunday, Roberts doubled down by telling MLB Network Radio that Scott would get the 'brunt' of save opportunities to start the season. Scott, an All-Star left-hander, racked up 22 saves with the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres last year. The Dodgers do have other options, from Evan Phillips (the closest thing to a full-time closer the Dodgers have had in recent years) to Michael Kopech (who led the team in saves last year after arriving at the trade deadline) to Kirby Yates (another offseason signing coming a 33-save campaign with the Texas Rangers). But for now, Scott appears to be at the top of their pecking order, with the chance to potentially strengthen his grip on a ninth-inning role this spring.
