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Forbes
22-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Boeing Earnings: A Coin Flip For Investors?
Boeing is scheduled to release its earnings report on Wednesday, April 23, 2025. Historically, the stock's response to earnings has been balanced. Over the past five years, Boeing has recorded a positive one-day return following earnings in 50% of cases, with a median gain of 1.7% and a maximum one-day increase of 8.7%. Trefis For event-driven traders, while historical data points to an equal likelihood of upward or downward movement, recognizing these patterns can be informative. Two potential strategies include: The consensus outlook forecasts a loss of $1.28 per share on revenue of $19.9 billion this quarter, compared to a loss of $1.13 per share on $16.6 billion in revenue during the same period last year. Notably, Boeing's commercial aircraft deliveries surged to 130 in Q1, up from 83 a year ago. This jump points to solid revenue growth. However, persistent challenges and increased operating costs are expected to widen the loss for the quarter. Beyond the numbers, investors will closely watch management's commentary on the broader economic environment, particularly regarding tariffs and rising trade tensions with China. Reports that China requested its airlines to pause Boeing deliveries in response to U.S. tariffs add uncertainty. Boeing's dependency on imported components also heightens its vulnerability to trade disruptions, which could drive up costs and reduce production efficiency. Some key findings regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings movements: Additional statistics for 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are illustrated in the table below. BA observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings Trefis One lower-risk approach (assuming meaningful correlation exists) is to evaluate the relationship between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns, identify the strongest correlation pair, and trade accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D show a strong correlation, traders may go long for five days if the 1D return is positive. The table below presents correlation data from 5-year and 3-year periods. '1D_5D' refers to the correlation between 1-day and 5-day post-earnings returns. Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark index (including the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000), generating impressive investor returns. For a more stable investment path compared to single stocks like IBM, you might also consider the High-Quality Portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P with returns of over 91% since inception. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
16-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
How Will DR Horton Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
CHONGQING, CHINA - APRIL 14: In this photo illustration, the D.R. Horton logo is displayed on a ... More smartphone screen, with the company's latest stock price performance and candlestick chart visible in the background, reflecting market volatility and investor sentiment on April 14, 2025, in Chongqing, China. D.R. Horton, Inc. is the largest home construction company in the United States by volume, specializing in the design, construction, and sale of single-family homes across various price segments. (Photo by) DR Horton, a U.S.-based home construction company, is scheduled to announce its fiscal Q2 results on Thursday, April 17, 2025. Analysts expect earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue of $8.03 billion. These figures represent a 24% decrease in earnings and a 12% decline in revenue from the prior year's $3.52 per share and $9.11 billion, respectively. Historically, the stock has gained after earnings 58% of the time, with a median one-day increase of 3.0% and a maximum surge of 10%. In the previous quarter (Q1), D.R. Horton saw a 21% year-over-year reduction in its sales order backlog, indicating possible revenue pressures ahead. Successfully navigating market competition and macroeconomic challenges will be essential for the company to maintain its growth trajectory. DR Horton currently holds a market capitalization of $38 billion. Over the last twelve months, it posted $37 billion in revenue, with $5.8 billion in operating profits and net income of $4.7 billion. While near-term stock movements may hinge on earnings performance versus expectations, studying past performance can offer insights for event-driven traders. For such traders, historical patterns can be advantageous—either by positioning ahead of earnings or by responding after results are released. For those seeking growth with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolioprovides an alternative, having outpaced the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since launch. See earnings reaction history of all stocks. Insights from one-day (1D) post-earnings returns include: Additional stats for 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are included in the table below. DHI Observed 1D, 5D, and 21D post earnings returns A more measured strategy—assuming meaningful correlation—is to identify relationships between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns. Traders can then act accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns exhibit strong correlation, a positive 1D result might justify a 'long' 5-day position. Below is correlation data from both 5-year and 3-year periods. Note: '1D_5D' refers to the correlation between 1-day post-earnings returns and 5-day outcomes. DHI Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns Learn more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (which includes the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering solid returns to investors. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
11-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Will JB Hunt's Earnings Drive Its Stock Up Or Down?
JB Hunt Transport Services is set to announce its earnings on Tuesday, April 15, 2025. For the upcoming quarter, consensus estimates forecast earnings of $1.15 per share on revenue of $2.91 billion. This compares to earnings of $1.22 per share on revenue of $2.94 billion in the same quarter last year. JBHT currently holds a market capitalization of $14 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company reported $12 billion in revenue, along with $831 million in operating profits and $571 million in net income. Trefis Although JBHT stock rebounded significantly after President Trump declared a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, the stock remains down 17% year-to-date. This drop is largely driven by the broader market sell-off, exacerbated by wider macroeconomic concerns. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on imports from more than 100 countries have intensified fears about potential economic downturns and reduced consumer spending. As a result, the logistics sector faces a tough environment marked by weakening demand and heightened economic uncertainty. While the outcome will depend heavily on how the results compare with market expectations, historical performance trends can offer valuable insights for event-driven traders. There are two key strategies to consider: either analyze historical odds and establish a position ahead of earnings, or examine post-earnings return patterns and trade based on observed correlations in short- and medium-term returns. See earnings reaction history of all stocks Some key observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Further data on 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns is summarized in the table below. An alternative approach with potentially lower risk (provided correlations are meaningful) involves analyzing the relationship between short- and medium-term returns. Identifying the pair with the strongest correlation allows traders to act accordingly. For example, if 1D and 5D returns show a strong correlation, a trader might go "long" for 5 days following a positive 1D return. The following data shows correlations over the past 5 years and 3 years. '1D_5D' refers to the correlation between 1-day and 5-day post-earnings returns. Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark(combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Johnson & Johnson, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
