27-04-2025
Russia's secretive Cosmos 2553 nuclear satellite malfunctions, risks military fallout
Russia's ambitions to militarize space may have suffered a major blow.
According to U.S. analysts, Cosmos 2553, a secretive satellite suspected of supporting Moscow's nuclear anti-satellite weapon development, appears to be malfunctioning.
Launched just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Cosmos 2553 has shown signs of erratic tumbling over the past year.
New tracking data suggests the spacecraft may no longer be functioning as intended, raising questions about the status of Russia's military space programs.
The satellite, believed to serve both intelligence-gathering and radiation-testing roles, has become a focal point for U.S. concerns over Russian activities in orbit.
Officials say Cosmos 2553 is not itself a weapon but plays a crucial role in developing technology that could target satellite constellations like SpaceX's Starlink, a system heavily relied on by Ukrainian forces.
Moscow denies any intent to develop nuclear space weapons, stating that Cosmos 2553's mission is purely scientific.
Cosmos 2553 was deployed to a high-radiation orbit about 2,000 kilometers above Earth — a zone communication and Earth-observing satellites typically avoid. Experts believe Russia used the harsh environment to test the durability of its space technologies.
In November, LeoLabs detected anomalies in the satellite's behavior using Doppler radar.
By December, it upgraded its assessment to 'high confidence' that Cosmos 2553 was tumbling, based on additional radar data and satellite imagery. Darren McKnight, Senior Technical Fellow at LeoLabs, told Reuters that additional radar measurements and imagery confirmed the satellite's instability.
"This observation strongly suggests the satellite is no longer operational," the Center for Strategic and International Studies stated in its latest Space Threat Assessment.
U.S. Space Command confirmed noticing changes in Cosmos 2553's altitude but declined to offer a detailed assessment of its current status.
Tracking firm Slingshot Aerospace reported unusual activity from the satellite in May 2024. "Slingshot noted that the object's brightness became variable, indicating a potential tumble," a company spokesperson said.
More recent observations from Slingshot suggest the satellite may have stabilized, according to Belinda Marchand, the company's Chief Science Officer.
However, it remains unclear whether Cosmos 2553 is still functional or if it has sustained critical damage.
The incident marks a potential setback in Russia's efforts to bolster its space-based military capabilities. U.S. Space Command officials noted that Russia's claims about the satellite's scientific mission "do not align with its characteristics."
The malfunction comes amid intensifying space competition between the U.S., Russia, and China.
As the number of satellites in orbit surges, defense agencies are ramping up efforts to better distinguish between civilian, commercial, and military assets.
A U.S. Space Command spokesperson warned that Cosmos 2553's inconsistencies and Russia's 'demonstrated willingness to target U.S. and Allied on-orbit objects' heighten the risk of misperception and potential escalation.
Cosmos 2553 is among several satellites suspected of supporting Russia's military and intelligence operations.
Its troubled status underscores the growing challenges surrounding space security and the fragile balance between national defense and global stability.
