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Forbes
08-04-2025
- Sport
- Forbes
This Ranking System Predicted The Best March Madness Bracket In 2025
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 29: The Florida Gators celebrate after defeating the Texas Tech ... More Red Raiders to advance to the Final Four in the Elite Eight round of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament held at Chase Center on March 29, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) The 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament concluded with the Florida Gators securing their third national championship, defeating the Houston Cougars in the title game. In the lead-up to March Madness, the NCAA Selection Committee was tasked with seeding 68 teams, a process informed by seven different ranking systems. These included NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), KenPom, Torvik T-Rank, ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), Wins Above Bubble (WAB), Strength of Record (SOR), and KPI. These systems incorporate varying methodologies, including efficiency-based models, résumé-based assessments, and hybrid approaches combining performance and opponent strength. To evaluate the predictive validity of these metrics, I conducted an experiment during the 2025 tournament. Using each ranking system independently, I constructed a complete bracket based solely on the relative rankings as of Selection Sunday. No adjustments were made once the tournament began, and no subjective inputs were included. The objective was to assess which system most accurately predicted the actual outcomes of the NCAA Tournament. This year's tournament produced very few upsets relative to historical norms. All four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, and three of the four No. 2 seeds reached the Elite Eight. In all the tournament produced only eleven upsets, defined here as any lower-seeded team defeating a higher-seeded opponent. Even among those results, many were minor deviations from expectation. Two were 9-over-8 matchups, and two others were 10-over-7. According to historical data, a No. 9 seed wins about 49% of the time against No. 8 seeds and No. 10 seeds win about 39% of the time against No. 7 seeds. PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND - MARCH 20: The McNeese Cowboys celebrate their win over the Clemson ... More University Tigers during the first round of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament held at Amica Mutual Pavillion on March 20, 2025 in Providence, Rhode Island. (Photo by Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) The four South region upsets included: No. 9 Creighton over No. 8 Louisville, No. 10 New Mexico over No. 7 Marquette, No. 5 Michigan over No. 4 Texas A&M, and No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 3 Iowa State. The West region accounted for the largest share: No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, No. 11 Drake over No. 6 Missouri, No. 10 Arkansas over No. 7 Kansas, and No. 10 Arkansas over No. 2 St. John's. East region upsets included: No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Mississippi State and No. 6 BYU over No. 3 Wisconsin. The lone upset in the Midwest region included: No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Clemson. SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - MARCH 21: Jalen Lake #15 of the Colorado State Rams reacts after making a ... More three-point basket during the first half in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Climate Pledge Arena on March 21, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by) This relatively low rate of disruption suggests a high level of accuracy in the Selection Committee's seeding decisions. Given that the Committee's process is informed in large part by advanced ranking systems, the tournament's chalk-heavy nature may also reflect the strength and consistency of the underlying metrics used to evaluate team quality. To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the ranking systems used by the NCAA Selection Committee, I submitted bracket entries into the 2025 ESPN Tournament Challenge with picks made purely based on each of the seven rankings used by the NCAA Selection Committee in order to determine which ranking system proved most accurate this season. The selection process followed a systematic approach. For each ranking system, the team ranked No. 1 was selected as the national champion. The remaining picks were made sequentially: the team ranked No. 2 was advanced as far as possible without facing a higher-ranked opponent, and so on, until a complete bracket was filled. This process ensured a consistent and objective methodology across all seven systems. SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - APRIL 3: Head coach Kelvin Sampson of the Houston Cougars arrives during Final ... More Four Media Day at the 2025 Men's Final Four at Alamodome on April 3, 2025 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Jack Dempsey/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) To assess performance, each ranking system was evaluated using two scoring frameworks: Together, these two metrics offer complementary views of performance and capture both bracket efficiency in a competitive context and underlying predictive accuracy. None of the brackets constructed using the seven ranking systems correctly predicted the Florida Gators as national champions. However, five of the seven systems accurately projected all four Final Four teams. Only Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and KPI omitted Duke in favor of Alabama, a divergence that ultimately reduced their overall predictive performance. Comparison of all seven ranking metrics and how they performed in the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball ... More Tournament. The Tournament Challenge results present an interesting pattern. Only 290 out of a possible 1,920 points separated the top performer, KenPom, from the bottom performer, KPI. However, these brackets landed in very different percentiles. The percentile is an indicator of how the bracket performed relative to other brackets submitted on ESPN. A KenPom bracket was better than 97.5% of all other brackets while a KPI bracket was only better than 68.6% of all other brackets. This gap underscores how even modest differences in bracket accuracy can translate into substantial variance in competitive standing. Unweighted accuracy showed less variability across systems. KenPom and Torvik T-Rank led with 51 correct picks out of 63 games (81.0%), while KPI trailed slightly with 46 correct picks (73.0%). The narrow five-game spread between the top and bottom performers illustrates the relative consistency in baseline predictive ability. However, the compounded value of correct predictions in later rounds, particularly the Elite Eight, Final Four, and championship, amplified the separation in weighted performance. ATLANTA, GEORGIA - MARCH 28: Head Coach Bruce Pearl of the Auburn Tigers watches from the sideline ... More during the Sweet Sixteen round of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament held at State Farm Arena on March 28, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Grant Halverson/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) This analysis demonstrates that while all seven NCAA-endorsed ranking systems offer a reasonably accurate view of team quality, not all are equally effective at predicting tournament outcomes. KenPom and Torvik stood out, combining strong overall accuracy with high-impact picks in later rounds. In contrast, systems like KPI and WAB lagged behind, missing key matchups and failing to match the predictive performance of their peers. In a year with relatively few upsets, the best models closely mirrored the actual trajectory of March Madness. This performance reinforces their value not just to the Selection Committee, but to analysts, fans, and bettors seeking a competitive edge. When the margin between a good bracket and a great one is only a few games, the choice of ranking system can make a meaningful difference.
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
UConn wins 12th NCAA women's title, stocks plunge as Trump doubles down on tariffs, and ‘The White Lotus' shocks in finale
Good morning, all. Have a case of the Mondays? Treat yourself to a flower bouquet to help lower stress and boost your mood. Now, on to the news. Subscribe to get this newsletter in your inbox each morning. NEED TO KNOW Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images March Madness wraps up After an emotional ending to the NCAA women's title game, March Madness wraps up tonight when Florida and Houston go head-to-head for the NCAA men's championship. Here's a recap, and what to expect later. The champions: UConn routed the defending NCAA women's champion, South Carolina, 82-59 to win their 12th championship, extending their record for the most of any NCAA women's program and breaking a tie with the UCLA men's program. [The Athletic] Paige prevails: UConn senior Paige Bueckers celebrated winning her first national title with a full minute of hugs and an emotional moment with her coach, Geno Auriemma. She's expected to be the first overall pick in the WNBA draft next week. [Yahoo Sports] Men's championship: After Duke's 'heartbreaking loss' on Saturday, Florida and Houston face off tonight in the men's championship game in San Antonio. 'It should be a good 40-minute fight,' Florida star Walter Clayton Jr. said. [USA Today] IN CASE YOU MISSED IT⛈️ Devastating storms Since Wednesday, at least 20 people have died in the Midwest and South as severe weather flooded rivers and spawned tornadoes into the weekend. Forecasters expect the severe risk to continue in the Southeast today. [ABC News] 📉 Trump's tariff shock President Trump said yesterday that he won't back down on sweeping tariffs unless countries even out their trade with the U.S. The tariffs have raised fears of a recession, and major stock indexes continued to fall this morning. [AP/Reuters] ➡️ RFK Jr. addresses measles With at least 481 cases tied to the Texas measles outbreak, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. met yesterday with the family of a child who died from the disease and called the vaccine the most effective way to stop its spread. [CNN] 🏒 NHL's greatest goal-scorer Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin scored his 895th career goal, breaking Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record. 'I'm not sure who's going to get more goals than that,' Gretzky said afterward. Watch the historic play. [Yahoo Sports] 🎬 Blockbuster The 'zany, family-friendly' film A Minecraft Movie, starring Jason Momoa, Jack Black and Jennifer Coolidge, broke records at the weekend box office, grossing $157 million and making it the largest debut of 2025 so far. [Entertainment Weekly] WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY 🏒 On the ice, the Rangers, in desperate need of some wins, face off against the Lightning at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+. [Hockey News] 🏀 On the court, March Madness concludes with Florida and Houston tipping off in the men's NCAA championship game at 8:50 p.m. ET on CBS. [Yahoo Sports] ⚾ On the field, the Diamondbacks kick off a three-game series against the Orioles at 9:40 p.m. ET on Fubo. [AP] 📺 On TV, the season finale of The Hunting Party airs at 10 p.m. ET on NBC. Here's what the cast said about last week's 'dizzying' foe. [NBC] ☀️ And don't forget to: Read your daily horoscope. Play the crossword. Check the forecast in your area. TODAY IN HISTORY Illustration: Yahoo News; photo: Chicago American historical photo/Tribune News Service via Getty Images In 1933, the Cullen-Harrison Act went into effect, legalizing low-alcohol beer months before prohibition was fully repealed. The day eventually became known as National Beer Day. If you're celebrating with a cold one later, try pairing it with a snack. [Daily Meal] 3 QUESTIONS ... about The White Lotus finale I asked Yahoo Entertainment reporter David Artavia what he thought of last night's finale and the third season overall. Jessica: One of the show's stars said fans would 'hate Mike White' after seeing the finale. Do you feel that way? David: The finale was unexpected. A little devastating? Yes. Oddly poetic? Absolutely. It's not the death I was bracing for, but it was twisted in the most White Lotus of ways. As for hating Mike White? Never! Here's what happened if you want to read about it, but beware of spoilers! Jessica: Which character arc were you most surprised or delighted by this season? David: Why choose just one? For me, Laurie's simmering tension with her three best friends paid off in a moment that was raw and so deeply human. Let's not forget Victoria, whose unraveling was brilliant, and Rick and Chelsea, whose twisted love spiral went places I never saw coming. Jessica: If I can't get enough White Lotus, what else from creator Mike White should I watch? David: Do yourself a favor and watch Mike White's Survivor: David vs. Goliath season. He's just as brilliant, weird and emotionally layered as the characters he writes. I love that he brought some of his fellow castaways into White Lotus cameos! As for Season 4: Here's where it might take place. FEEL-GOOD MOMENT Philadelphia Zoo A 97-year-old Western Santa Cruz Galapagos tortoise, who's lived at the Philadelphia Zoo for nearly her entire life, recently hatched four babies, making her the oldest first-time mom of her species. Her very fitting name? Mommy. [People] Have a great day! See you tomorrow. 💡 P.S. Before you go, your daily advice: Want to remove dirt and pesticides from fresh herbs before you cook? Skip the soap and wash them in a vinegar solution. [Simply Recipes] About The Yodel: The Yodel is a morning newsletter from Yahoo News. Start your day with The Yodel to get caught up on weather, national news, politics, entertainment and sports — in four minutes or less.
Forbes
06-04-2025
- Sport
- Forbes
How Green Are 2025 NCAA Men's And Women's Final Four?
TAMPA, FLORIDA - APRIL 1: A detailed view of the Texas Longhorns bus at Tampa International Airport ... More ahead of the 2025 Women's Final Four at on April 1, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) The 2025 NCAA Men's and Women's Final Four has just wrapped and now we wait to see who will be crowned champions. As the season concludes, we know that conference realignment has increased environmental impact, but how are local organising committees and finalists taking meaningful steps to reduce environmental impact? At Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay, host of the Women's Final Four, sustainability efforts include diverting 30% of waste from landfills, and recycling around 90% of cans and bottles used at events. Water usage is reduced by restrooms featuring waterless urinals and flow restrictors. TAMPA, FL - APRIL 4: A general view of the 2025 NCAA Women's Final Four logo sign outside Amalie ... More Arena prior to the start of the games with the Uconn Huskies playing the UCLA Bruins and the Texas Longhorns playing the South Carolina Gamecocks on April 4, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Don) In the lead-up to the Final Four, a riverwalk clean up was organised by the Tampa Bay Local Organizing Committee. Dozens of volunteers collected litter, ahead of welcoming fans and visitors to the area. The Men's Championships are being hosted at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, and the Local Organizing Committee website states that it will deliver 'the most sustainable final four yet." Green team volunteers encourage fans to recycle at the Final Four, semi-finals and the Championship game, as well as at Fan Fest and Music Fest events. Since 2006, the venue has pursued "green" initiatives focused on water, energy and recycling. SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - APRIL 2: Head coach Bruce Pearl of the Auburn Tigers smiles upon arriving in ... More San Antonio for the 2025 Men's Final Four at Alamodome on April 2, 2025 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Jack Dempsey/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) 'The Alamodome, while we're quite proud of it's history, is a bit of a dated infrastructure,' sustainability lead of San Antonio's Local Organizing Committee for the Men's Final Four, Brad Tipper shared. 'We knew our impact wasn't going to be as successful if we focused our efforts within the four walls of the dome. Instead we took this as an opportunity to identify and manage difficult to abate CO2 emissions, and introduce the idea of carbon removals.' The focus has been on conducting a lifecycle analysis of the Final Four, a comprehensive process evaluates the event's environmental impact from start to finish. Tim Trefzer, who previously led sustainability efforts for the NCAA Men's Final Four local organizing committee in Atlanta shared, 'sustainability efforts by Final Four are organized by local committees, which means year-on-year learnings and benchmarking can be lost. Consistency is difficult, and efforts vary from city to city.' To address this challenge, SALOC is creating a sustainability playbook to be used across future NCAA events. Data is being collected and analyzed by students at local universities, supported by Tipper and his team. This will be published within 30 days of the Championship Game. SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - APRIL 05: The Florida Gators celebrate a win in the Final Four Game of the NCAA ... More Men's Basketball Tournament at Alamodome on April 05, 2025 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) The Florida Gators will go up against Houston in the men's championship game, in what is set to be a closely contested match up. At home, the Gators are committed to the University's zero waste goal, encouraging recycling and green tailgating. "Green Games" are hosted throughout the season and a number of their buildings are certified as part of U.S. Green Building Council's Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design. University of Houston Athletics is powered by Rhythm Energy, a local energy provider that provides 100% renewable energy plans. University of Houston Office of Sustainability centres work around using resources responsibly. For Earth Month, they are hosting campus events including an e-waste pick up and plant-forward lunches. The Auburn Tigers and Duke's Blue Devils may have not have made the championship game, but their institution's work off the court highlights how college programs are embracing sustainability. Circularity of apparel sits at the heart of the student-led athletics program 'Devils Doing Good Gear Drive.' The initiative has collected and redistributed over 1,500 pairs of shoes to local community groups. Duke has an institutional climate commitment too, efforts include having over 300 climate and sustainability related classes and $3.7 million awarded in seed grants for research on climate. The Auburn Tigers are taking action on sustainability too, from solar panels at Jordan-Hare Stadium to recycling, composting, and tree-planting initiatives. Auburn's Office of Sustainability is reducing its environmental impact while educating students and the community. TAMPA, FLORIDA - APRIL 03: The UConn Huskies meet at center court during a team practice prior to ... More the 2025 Women's Final Four at Amalie Arena on April 03, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) UConn will face South Carolina in the women's championship game. UConn has been promoting sustainability through its Green Game Day program since 2008. Students have led recycling awareness and recovery at football and basketball games, collecting over 30,000 cans to date. Through the influence of head coach Dawn Staley, South Carolina, helped establish an environmental engineering major for incoming player Joyce Edwards, highlighting the intersection between athletics and academic sustainability. Texas promotes sustainability efforts under the banner 'Bleed Orange. Live Green," with a focus on recycling. The 2025 NCAA Final Four offers the opportunity to highlight sustainability in college sports, with host cities and participating teams taking action. As part of the site selection bid specifications for 2026 and 2027, the NCAA 'encourages practice, competition and/or ancillary event venue(s) to engage in sustainability initiatives.' Indianapolis, Detroit, Phoenix and Columbus can further drive this momentum. Recycling and water conservation initiatives in Tampa Bay reflect growing norms, while San Antonio's forthcoming sustainability playbook signals a step towards ensuring data and learnings are preserved and accessible to set a benchmark and improve future NCAA events. Half a million students play college sports across 1,100 institutions. With so many student-led initiatives driving greener athletics, the NCAA and its partners have the opportunity to prioritize environmental legacy beyond the Final Four and into a more sustainable future.
CNN
03-04-2025
- Sport
- CNN
The best photos from this year's March Madness
Auburn center Johni Broome rises for a layup during the Tigers' Elite Eight win against Michigan State on Sunday, March 30. Broome suffered a scary elbow injury during the second half and had to leave the game, but he returned from the locker room to help the Tigers secure a 70-64 win. Broome, one of the leading candidates for national player of the year, finished with a game-high 25 points and 14 rebounds. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. cuts down the nets on Saturday, March 29, after the Gators defeated Texas Tech to advance to the Final Four. Florida trailed by nine with just a little more than three minutes left in the game, but Clayton's 3-point heroics helped the Gators mount a furious comeback to win 84-79. He finished with 30 points. Eakin Howard/Imagn Images/Reuters Duke star freshman Cooper Flagg reacts after hitting a 3-pointer against Arizona on Thursday, March 27. The Blue Devils won a 100-93 shootout to move on to the Elite Eight. Flagg, who is likely to be the top pick in the NBA Draft, had a team-high 30 points and seven Arkansas-St. John's game featured a juicy matchup of longtime rival coaches: Arkansas' John Calipari, left, and Rick Pitino. Both men won national championships at Kentucky, and they often faced each other when Calipari coached Kentucky and Pitino coached Louisville. Ben Solomon/Amir Khan, a student manager with 12-seed McNeese State, celebrates with the team after it knocked off 5-seed Clemson in the first round on March 20. Khan, nicknamed 'Aura,' has become famous for being the team's most vociferous hype-man, rapping with the players and holding a boombox as they exit from the tunnel. Ben Solomon/
CNN
02-04-2025
- Sport
- CNN
The best photos from this year's March Madness
Auburn center Johni Broome rises for a layup during the Tigers' Elite Eight win against Michigan State on Sunday, March 30. Broome suffered a scary elbow injury during the second half and had to leave the game, but he returned from the locker room to help the Tigers secure a 70-64 win. Broome, one of the leading candidates for national player of the year, finished with a game-high 25 points and 14 rebounds. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. cuts down the nets on Saturday, March 29, after the Gators defeated Texas Tech to advance to the Final Four. Florida trailed by nine with just a little more than three minutes left in the game, but Clayton's 3-point heroics helped the Gators mount a furious comeback to win 84-79. He finished with 30 points. Eakin Howard/Imagn Images/Reuters Duke star freshman Cooper Flagg reacts after hitting a 3-pointer against Arizona on Thursday, March 27. The Blue Devils won a 100-93 shootout to move on to the Elite Eight. Flagg, who is likely to be the top pick in the NBA Draft, had a team-high 30 points and seven Arkansas-St. John's game featured a juicy matchup of longtime rival coaches: Arkansas' John Calipari, left, and Rick Pitino. Both men won national championships at Kentucky, and they often faced each other when Calipari coached Kentucky and Pitino coached Louisville. Ben Solomon/Amir Khan, a student manager with 12-seed McNeese State, celebrates with the team after it knocked off 5-seed Clemson in the first round on March 20. Khan, nicknamed 'Aura,' has become famous for being the team's most vociferous hype-man, rapping with the players and holding a boombox as they exit from the tunnel. Ben Solomon/
