Latest news with #BenTaleblu
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's gamble in normalizing relations with Syria in the face of Iran: ‘high-risk, high-reward'
President Donald Trump last week announced he would normalize U.S. relations with Syria by lifting decades-old sanctions, and he became the first American president to meet with the leader of the Middle Eastern nation in 25 years – a move that some have seen as an indirect hit on Iran. The news was a surprising shift from Trump's prior position in which he said in a December post that "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT." Trump's change of posture is a gamble that could see serious gains regarding regional stability and securing U.S. interests by deterring Iranian influence, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran expert and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Us Ambassador Barrack Named Special Envoy To Syria Amid Sanctions Relief Plan "This is what I call a high-risk, high-reward gamble, but one that, if achieved successfully, can actually prevent Syria from being a launching pad for more Iranian malign activity," Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. "But if it fails, . . . Washington would have ended up empowering a jihadist government in Damascus [that] does not have full control over its own territory." The December collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime following the takeover by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, not only signified an end to a decades-long oppressive regime, it also effectively dismantled years of Iranian investment in a major setback to its regional influence. Read On The Fox News App Trump emphasized that this sanctions relief, which he argued will give the country a chance to recover and was soon followed by an EU order to lift sanctions, is a move to encourage Syria to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel. But Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is also the leader of HTS, which is still a designated terrorist group under the U.S. and the UN, has not officially agreed to pursue diplomatic ties with Jerusalem – a push several Middle Eastern nations have flatly rejected amid its aggressive military operations in the Gaza Strip. Trump also emphasized that the new Syrian government needs to suppress the rise of Islamic extremist groups, which Ben Taleblu pointed out is going to be one of the nation's chief vulnerabilities as it looks to completely re-establish itself in the world order as trade, business and diplomacy have been reopened to Damascus. Iran's Khamenei Launches Blistering Attack On Trump After Middle East Visit "Tehran traditionally responds to these sorts of things with patience. The Islamic Republic has an ideological view of the way the region should be oriented, and has put time, money, resources, blood and treasure towards that," Ben Taleblu said. The Iran-expert explained that Tehran is waiting for the U.S. and Israel to loosen its pressure on the regime and its proxies, "and for Washington and Jerusalem to make mistakes in the region as they try to push towards bigger-picture things – like flipping Syria or regional peace and stability." "And it is there that in the interim, while Washington focuses up on building up states that Tehran will focus on building up proxies and partners," he added. Syria is not a united nation as conflict persists across the country between varying minority groups, former regime loyalists and terrorist organizations like ISIS. Secretary of State Macro Rubio also warned lawmakers on Tuesday that Syria could be just "weeks" away from a "potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions." These fractures pose a significant vulnerability for the new Syrian government. "Whenever there is a downtrodden or dispossessed person in a war zone or in a conflict zone, that is Tehran's angle of entry back into a conflict," Ben Taleblu said. "This has been Iran's strategy, sitting and waiting and looking to exploit opportunities across the entire northern tier of the Middle East, from Iraq to Syria to Lebanon. "Exploiting disarray is a specialty of the Islamic Republic," he warned. The expert explained that if the Trump administration wants to ensure that Iran is unable to exploit vulnerable populations in Syria, then it will need to press Damascus to address the sweeping concerns facing various groups across the country. Though the president, and his constituents, notoriously opposed nation-building, which could spell trouble for the long-term security of Syria as it sits in Iran's shadow. "Tehran is going to be playing the long game. It's going to be running the clock when it comes to American and Israeli patience for what the future regional order could look like," Ben Taleblu article source: Trump's gamble in normalizing relations with Syria in the face of Iran: 'high-risk, high-reward'
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump demands do-or-die nuclear talks with Iran. Who has the leverage?
President Donald Trump remains adamant that his administration will engage in "direct" nuclear talks with Iran on Saturday in Oman, while Tehran appears to remain equally steadfast in its insistence the negotiations will be "indirect." Middle East envoy Stever Witkoff is scheduled to travel to Oman, where he could potentially be meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, though the Iranian official has so far maintained the talks will be held through a third party. While it remains unclear who will get their way regarding the format of the discussions, Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Behnam Ben Taleblu, said this public controversy between Washington and Tehran is all a game of leverage. "Both sides have an incentive to either overrepresent or underrepresent what is happening," he told Fox News Digital. "These are often the negotiations before the negotiations." Iran Mulls Preemptive Strike On Us Base After Trump Bomb Threats "For the White House, the desire to be seen as having direct talks with the Islamic Republic is high," he said, pointing to the lack of direct engagement between Washington and Tehran dating back to his first term and the regime's deep disdain for the president, as witnessed in an apparent assassination attempt. Read On The Fox News App While the Iranian government has long held contempt for the U.S., a sentiment that has persisted for decades, Trump is "very different," Ben Taleblu said. The security expert highlighted the 2020 assassination of top Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the crippling effect of the U.S.-sanctioned maximum-pressure campaign and Trump's open support for the Iranian people as the major issues that have rankled the Iranian regime. "Trump is a very bitter pill to swallow, and I think the supreme leader of Iran once said that the shoe of Qasem Soleimani has more honor than the head of Trump," Ben Taleblu said. "Being seen as directly negotiating with someone [like that] would be making the Islamic Republic look like a supplicant. "The U.S. wants to be seen as having driven Iran to the negotiating table, and the Islamic Republic does not want to be seen as being driven to the negotiating table," he added. Ahead Of Trump Admin-iran Talks, New Report Says Iran Nuclear Threat Rises To 'Extreme Danger' Tehran's chief advantage is the fact that, despite severe U.S. sanctions and geopolitical attempts to halt its development of a nuclear weapon, it has made serious gains in its enrichment of uranium to near-weapons-grade quality, as well as with its missile program, a critical component in being able to actually fire a nuclear warhead. It also has drastically closer ties with chief U.S. adversarial superpowers like Russia and China, whose position and involvement in countering Western attempts to disarm a nuclear Iran remains an unknown at this point. While Iran holds significant leverage when it comes to negotiating with the Trump administration on its nuclear program, Washington has a plethora of levers it can use to either incentivize or coerce Tehran into adhering to international calls for the end of its nuclear program. "The U.S. actually has a heck of a lot of leverage here," Ben Taleblu said, pointing to not only more economic sanctions, including "snapback" mechanisms under the United Nations Security Council, but also military options. Trump last month threatened to "bomb" Iran if it did not engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. But some have questioned how long the administration will allow negotiations to persist as JCPOA-era snapback sanctions expire in October 2025. The White House would not confirm for Fox News Digital any time restrictions it has issued to Iran, but Trump on Wednesday told reporters, "We have a little time, but we don't have much time." Time Is Running Out To Stop Iran From Making Nuclear Bomb: 'Dangerous Territory' "The regime has its back against the wall," Ben Taleblu said. "A military option, given what has been happening in the Middle East since Oct. 7, 2023, is an increasingly credible option against the Islamic Republic of Iran." "And the regime is engaging, now, to delay and prevent a military option from ever materializing," he added. "They are hoping to use talks with the Americans as a human shield against the Israelis." "So long as you're talking to America, the Israelis aren't shooting at you," Ben Taleblu continued. Trump this week said that it would be Israel who would take the lead on a military strike on Iran, not the U.S., should nuclear talks fail, which again could be a negotiating tactic as Israel has already demonstrated it will not hesitate to militarily engage with Iran. "Pursuing wholesale disarmament of the Islamic Republic of Iran is incredibly risky, and it doesn't have a great track record of succeeding," Ben Taleblu said. The Iranian expert said the only way to actually take on the Islamic Republic would be through a "broader" and "more holistic" strategy that focuses not only on nuclear nonproliferation but removing the "Axis of Resistance," scaling up sanctions and having a "ground game" to counter the regime through cyber, political and telecommunication strategies "for when Iranians go out into the street and protest again." "What the Islamic Republic would always want is to have you focus on the fire and not on the arsonist, and the arsonist is quite literally a regime that has tried to kill this president," Ben Taleblu article source: Trump demands do-or-die nuclear talks with Iran. Who has the leverage?
Fox News
11-04-2025
- Politics
- Fox News
Trump demands do-or-die nuclear talks with Iran. Who has the leverage?
President Donald Trump remains adamant that his administration will engage in "direct" nuclear talks with Iran on Saturday in Oman, while Tehran appears to remain equally steadfast in its insistence the negotiations will be "indirect." Middle East envoy Stever Witkoff is scheduled to travel to Oman, where he could potentially be meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, though the Iranian official has so far maintained the talks will be held through a third party. While it remains unclear who will get their way regarding the format of the discussions, Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Behnam Ben Taleblu, said this public controversy between Washington and Tehran is all a game of leverage. "Both sides have an incentive to either overrepresent or underrepresent what is happening," he told Fox News Digital. "These are often the negotiations before the negotiations." "For the White House, the desire to be seen as having direct talks with the Islamic Republic is high," he said, pointing to the lack of direct engagement between Washington and Tehran dating back to his first term and the regime's deep disdain for the president, as witnessed in an apparent assassination attempt. While the Iranian government has long held contempt for the U.S., a sentiment that has persisted for decades, Trump is "very different," Ben Taleblu said. The security expert highlighted the 2020 assassination of top Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the crippling effect of the U.S.-sanctioned maximum-pressure campaign and Trump's open support for the Iranian people as the major issues that have rankled the Iranian regime. "Trump is a very bitter pill to swallow, and I think the supreme leader of Iran once said that the shoe of Qasem Soleimani has more honor than the head of Trump," Ben Taleblu said. "Being seen as directly negotiating with someone [like that] would be making the Islamic Republic look like a supplicant. "The U.S. wants to be seen as having driven Iran to the negotiating table, and the Islamic Republic does not want to be seen as being driven to the negotiating table," he added. Tehran's chief advantage is the fact that, despite severe U.S. sanctions and geopolitical attempts to halt its development of a nuclear weapon, it has made serious gains in its enrichment of uranium to near-weapons-grade quality, as well as with its missile program, a critical component in being able to actually fire a nuclear warhead. It also has drastically closer ties with chief U.S. adversarial superpowers like Russia and China, whose position and involvement in countering Western attempts to disarm a nuclear Iran remains an unknown at this point. While Iran holds significant leverage when it comes to negotiating with the Trump administration on its nuclear program, Washington has a plethora of levers it can use to either incentivize or coerce Tehran into adhering to international calls for the end of its nuclear program. "The U.S. actually has a heck of a lot of leverage here," Ben Taleblu said, pointing to not only more economic sanctions, including "snapback" mechanisms under the United Nations Security Council, but also military options. Trump last month threatened to "bomb" Iran if it did not engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. But some have questioned how long the administration will allow negotiations to persist as JCPOA-era snapback sanctions expire in October 2025. The White House would not confirm for Fox News Digital any time restrictions it has issued to Iran, but Trump on Wednesday told reporters, "We have a little time, but we don't have much time." "The regime has its back against the wall," Ben Taleblu said. "A military option, given what has been happening in the Middle East since Oct. 7, 2023, is an increasingly credible option against the Islamic Republic of Iran." "And the regime is engaging, now, to delay and prevent a military option from ever materializing," he added. "They are hoping to use talks with the Americans as a human shield against the Israelis." "So long as you're talking to America, the Israelis aren't shooting at you," Ben Taleblu continued. Trump this week said that it would be Israel who would take the lead on a military strike on Iran, not the U.S., should nuclear talks fail, which again could be a negotiating tactic as Israel has already demonstrated it will not hesitate to militarily engage with Iran. "Pursuing wholesale disarmament of the Islamic Republic of Iran is incredibly risky, and it doesn't have a great track record of succeeding," Ben Taleblu said. The Iranian expert said the only way to actually take on the Islamic Republic would be through a "broader" and "more holistic" strategy that focuses not only on nuclear nonproliferation but removing the "Axis of Resistance," scaling up sanctions and having a "ground game" to counter the regime through cyber, political and telecommunication strategies "for when Iranians go out into the street and protest again." "What the Islamic Republic would always want is to have you focus on the fire and not on the arsonist, and the arsonist is quite literally a regime that has tried to kill this president," Ben Taleblu said.
Yahoo
01-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Iran mulls preemptive strike on US base after Trump bomb threats
Iranian military commanders are considering a preemptive strike on a joint U.S.-U.K. base on the Chagos Island located in the Indian Ocean in an apparent attempt to deter President Donald Trump from launching a military attack on Iran, a report by the Telegraph first said. "Like any Iranian military threat, the art is to determine what is bluster and what is real," Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital when asked about the strategy behind the alleged threats against the U.S. base. "Deception is a propaganda tool used to bolster deterrence and prevent a conventionally weak regime from having to fight," he added. "By threatening everywhere, the regime hopes to have to fight nowhere – meaning its revolutionary foreign policy gets to remain uncontested. After Debilitating Strikes, Trump Tells Houthis: Stop Shooting At Us And 'We Will Stop Shooting At You' Fox News Digital has not been able to independently confirm the threat of attack on the Diego Garcia base, positioned some 2,400 miles south of Iran, but experts on Iranian security have been sounding the alarm that Tehran likely has, if not direct missile capabilities, options to position its arms that will enable it to hit U.S. strategic interests farther away. Iran has a "self-imposed" range of roughly 1,200 miles on its ballistic capabilities, though it is suspected that the IRGC has a ballistic strike capability of hitting up to 1,800 miles away using its Khorramshahr-2 medium-range ballistic missile, Ben Taleblu explained in a post on X. Read On The Fox News App Tehran also has the updated version of the missile known as Khorramshahr-4, also referred to as the Kheibar missile, which is suspected of being able to exceed Iran's other strike range options, though the extent of its capabilities has not been fully tested. But even if it is incapable of hitting a U.S. target some 2,400 miles from its most southern border, Iran has proven it is crafty when it comes to expanding its strike range – including through the use of merchant ships and oil tankers converted to warships to expand its long-range strike capabilities. Iran's Khamenei Warns Of 'Strong Blow' As Trump Threatens To Drop Bombs, Putin Silent On Us Ire "There's always the chance of using a foreign-procured container launched cruise missile from even an unconverted tanker or commercial vessel at sea," Ben Taleblu explained in his post, referring to its use of both Russian and Chinese procured cruise missiles following its war with Iraq in the 1980s. In addition, Iran could again turn to its close ties to terrorist networks to transfer missile capabilities to war-torn areas like Yemen, which could enable it to strike further south into the Indian Ocean by some 800 miles. "While all these options would make Iran's launch platforms, especially at sea, easy targets for a counterstrike, they mean that Tehran does have options to strike further afield than expected," Ben Taleblu said. Trump in recent days has increased his threats against Iran and warned there could be direct conflict if it doesn't stop arming the Houthi terrorist group, or halt its nuclear program. But it remains unclear at what level the U.S. would respond to a direct attack on its military, which could prove catastrophic for Tehran given its revealed defense capabilities when faced with strikes from Israel. Iran on Monday also filed a letter of complaint with the United Nations Security Council over Trump's "reckless and belligerent" threats and described them as "a flagrant violation of international law." According to a report by Reuters, Iran's U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said Tehran "strongly warns against any military adventurism and will respond swiftly and decisively to any act of aggression or attack by the United States or its proxy, the Israeli regime, against its sovereignty, territorial integrity, or national interests."Original article source: Iran mulls preemptive strike on US base after Trump bomb threats
Fox News
01-04-2025
- Politics
- Fox News
Iran mulls preemptive strike on US base after Trump bomb threats
Iranian military commanders are considering a preemptive strike on a joint U.S.-U.K. base on the Chagos Island located in the Indian Ocean in an apparent attempt to deter President Donald Trump from launching a military attack on Iran, a report by the Telegraph first said. "Like any Iranian military threat, the art is to determine what is bluster and what is real," Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital when asked about the strategy behind the alleged threats against the U.S. base. "Deception is a propaganda tool used to bolster deterrence and prevent a conventionally weak regime from having to fight," he added. "By threatening everywhere, the regime hopes to have to fight nowhere – meaning its revolutionary foreign policy gets to remain uncontested. Fox News Digital has not been able to independently confirm the threat of attack on the Diego Garcia base, positioned some 2,400 miles south of Iran, but experts on Iranian security have been sounding the alarm that Tehran likely has, if not direct missile capabilities, options to position its arms that will enable it to hit U.S. strategic interests farther away. Iran has a "self-imposed" range of roughly 1,200 miles on its ballistic capabilities, though it is suspected that the IRGC has a ballistic strike capability of hitting up to 1,800 miles away using its Khorramshahr-2 medium-range ballistic missile, Ben Taleblu explained in a post on X. Tehran also has the updated version of the missile known as Khorramshahr-4, also referred to as the Kheibar missile, which is suspected of being able to exceed Iran's other strike range options, though the extent of its capabilities has not been fully tested. But even if it is incapable of hitting a U.S. target some 2,400 miles from its most southern border, Iran has proven it is crafty when it comes to expanding its strike range – including through the use of merchant ships and oil tankers converted to warships to expand its long-range strike capabilities. "There's always the chance of using a foreign-procured container launched cruise missile from even an unconverted tanker or commercial vessel at sea," Ben Taleblu explained in his post, referring to its use of both Russian and Chinese procured cruise missiles following its war with Iraq in the 1980s. In addition, Iran could again turn to its close ties to terrorist networks to transfer missile capabilities to war-torn areas like Yemen, which could enable it to strike further south into the Indian Ocean by some 800 miles. "While all these options would make Iran's launch platforms, especially at sea, easy targets for a counterstrike, they mean that Tehran does have options to strike further afield than expected," Ben Taleblu said. Trump in recent days has increased his threats against Iran and warned there could be direct conflict if it doesn't stop arming the Houthi terrorist group, or halt its nuclear program. But it remains unclear at what level the U.S. would respond to a direct attack on its military, which could prove catastrophic for Tehran given its revealed defense capabilities when faced with strikes from Israel. Iran on Monday also filed a letter of complaint with the United Nations Security Council over Trump's "reckless and belligerent" threats and described them as "a flagrant violation of international law." According to a report by Reuters, Iran's U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said Tehran "strongly warns against any military adventurism and will respond swiftly and decisively to any act of aggression or attack by the United States or its proxy, the Israeli regime, against its sovereignty, territorial integrity, or national interests."
