10-05-2025
What Bendigo's swing against Labor means for Victorian premier
It was the "safe" Labor seat that took most by surprise.
Labor's Lisa Chesters scraped through for a fifth term despite the strongest push away from her party in the nation.
Now the Nationals are vowing to target Bendigo in next year's state election.
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"It's a repudiation of the Labor brand and the premier in her own electorate," Victorian Nationals leader Danny O'Brien said this week.
"The premier should be concerned and Labor should be concerned."
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan, who is also the state member for Bendigo East, denied the swing against Labor had anything to do with her.
"It was a cashed-up [Nationals] campaign," she said.
Emeritus Professor of Politics at Monash University, Paul Strangio, said the swing against federal Labor in Bendigo was a warning bell for the Victorian Labor government and the premier.
"Jacinta Allan's government is very unpopular," he said.
Professor Strangio said it would still be a big task for the Victorian opposition to win state seats such as Bendigo.
"There is a deep skepticism in Victoria to the Liberal party," he said.
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Pressure on Ms Allan was rising before the federal election, with polling showing Victorians were fed up with crime and budget blowouts.
There have been protests outside her Bendigo electorate office over youth crime, and against the deeply unpopular emergency services levy.
Ms Allan said Nationals candidate Andrew Lethlean was also marketed as a quasi-independent candidate, rather than a Coalition one, which likely contributed to his success.
"The Nationals worked incredibly hard to make sure they had nothing to do with Peter Dutton's Liberal party," she said.
"I take nothing for granted in holding my seat of Bendigo East — I never have."
But some residents in the Bendigo electorate believe frustration with the state's premier did have an impact on the local federal election result.
"There has been some dissatisfaction with the Labor Premier, Jacinta Allan, in relation to issues like youth crime," local Peter Howitt said.
Angus Smith, 33, said the swing reflected the Nationals' big spend on advertising.
"The Nationals went really hard on advertising. [Andrew] Lethlean has been everywhere," he said.
But Mr Smith said there was also a growing appetite for change in the community.
"You have to remind people you exist and remind people what you do."
Mr Lethlean and Ms Chesters were not available to be interviewed.
