Latest news with #BenjaminCowen
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street eyes Bitcoin over Treasury yields
Bitcoin soared to a record $109,767.52 on May 21, and as its market cap crossed the $2.16 trillion mark, it dethroned both Amazon and Alphabet to become the fifth-most valuable asset in the world. This rally came as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields surged to 4.597%, last seen in 2023, testing global investors' appetite for risk. In the past, rising bond yields have diverted less capital to riskier assets such as Bitcoin, especially during periods of monetary tightening. Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen discussed in his podcast in early January that the rise in yield has occurred during a BTC bear market when other risky assets moved lower, such as in 2014, 2018, and 2022. These factors lead to higher borrowing costs for the government and have implications for various sectors of the economy, including mortgages and corporate financing. From 2015 to 2025, while the market often amplified the macro narrative surrounding Bitcoin, its own narratives and market cycles occasionally took precedence. Consequently, correlations with bond yields can tighten and loosen depending on the environment. Now in May 2025, that correlation is weaker than ever, with Bitcoin performing strongly at high yields. Bitcoin's move higher despite the multi-year high yield suggests that investors might be repositioning. Some analysts expect that investors are hedging against long-term inflation and a lack of fiscal stability. The U.S. is facing rising debt levels and considerable Treasury issuance, and while the 'real' return on bonds is at 5%, this may not seem safe to some. Meanwhile, equity markets took a hit on May 21. The Dow fell 1.69%, the S&P 500 lost 1.16%, and the Small Cap 2000 fell 2.35%. The declines indicate investors are in 'flight' mode away from equities, accompanied by rising bond yields, etc. This divergence begs the question of whether investors are instituting 'rotation' out of bonds and traditional equities into Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now the asset of choice in an uncertain, high-yield world.
Business Mayor
12-05-2025
- Business
- Business Mayor
Is altcoin season making a comeback? – THESE signals suggest…
Altcoin season flashed upside momentum build-up as BTC dominance dipped. It was still BTC season per altcoin season index reading, but this could change. The risk-on sentiment in May has significantly boosted the altcoin market, especially after Bitcoin [BTC] surged above $100K last week. Looking ahead, the building momentum may be a signal of an incoming first phase of the altcoin season, noted analytics firm Swissblock. 'First leg of Altseason incoming. Last time we got this confirmation was February and November of 2024.' Source: Swissblock The attached chart shows an uptick in positive altcoin impulse (blue), a trend flashed in both February and November 2024 altcoin run-ups. Altcoin momentum improves Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen echoed Swissblock's outlook. Cowen noted that, from a price chart perspective, there was an increasing number of altcoins above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Source: X AMBCrypto checked key altcoin season indicators to gauge the budding traction. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) hit a cycle high of 65.3% in early May, slowing the broader altcoin sector's April recovery. However, last week's BTC jump above $100K was also marked by a sharp 4% drop in BTC dominance to 62%. Source: TradingView (Altcoin market performance vs. BTC, USDT dominance) Besides, Tether's USDT dominance (USDT, orange) has declined from 6% to 4.5% in the past three weeks. This meant that the altcoin sector saw some capital rotation from BTC. This was confirmed by a rebound in altcoin market cap (purple), excluding BTC and Ethereum [ETH ] , from over $600 billion to over $900 billion. For context, last November's altcoin pump was marked by similar signals – a sharp drop in BTC and USDT dominance. Simply put, the Swissblock outlook may be validated if the trend repeats. Read More Lido [LDO] falters at $1.7 — Can buyers still benefit? That said, it was still a firm BTC season as of the time of writing, per the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) reading of 27. Notably, the ASI is a lagging indicator. It tracks BTC's performance against altcoins over the past 90 days. Despite this, Monero [XMR], Sui [SUI], Bittensor [TAO], and Tron [TRX] have outperformed BTC in the same period.
Yahoo
19-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Dominance Rises: Is A Break To $93,000 Coming?
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) continued dominance over the crypto market is setting the stage for a potential rally to new highs, with traders eyeing $93,000 in the near term. What Happened: In a podcast published on Tuesday, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen emphasized that Bitcoin dominance is surging, breaking out of a multi-year wedge and currently sitting at 63.08%, or nearly 69% excluding stablecoins. He argues that in an environment of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin offers better risk-adjusted returns compared to altcoins. "Every dollar in an altcoin is a dollar not in Bitcoin," Cowen warned, adding that altcoin valuations remain too high relative to BTC and may have further downside before any true alt season can begin. Don't Miss: 'Scrolling To UBI' — Deloitte's #1 fastest-growing software company allows users to earn money on their phones. You can invest today for just $0.26/share with a $1000 minimum. Coinbase's latest promo gets you up to $200 in crypto (Seriously!) — Here's everything you need to know to take advantage of this offer. Historically, altcoin rallies start from range lows in the alt/BTC ratio, which is still elevated, suggesting Bitcoin will remain the stronger bet until macro conditions shift, likely when the Fed pivots to easing. What's Next: Crypto trader Bluntz Capital spotted an ABC pattern forming on Bitcoin's hourly chart, signalling a potential new bullish trend. He predicts a rally to above $88,000, with further upside open to speculation. An ABC pattern implies the start of a new trend, retracement or pullback from an initial trend and continuation from investment company boasts a 33.85% internal rate of return (IRR) for its realized projects, allowing accredited investors to earn passive returns and avoid the headaches of being a landlord. Trader Pump Truck believes Bitcoin is on track for $92,000–$93,000, with $90,000 acting as a likely short trap that could fuel a sharp squeeze higher. If a dip comes first, he sees anything under $81,500 as a solid long and calls a drop below $78,000 "free money" with invalidation at local lows. Interestingly, while he's bullish on BTC in the short term, he expects Ethereum and select altcoins to outperform Bitcoin percentage-wise during the next leg up possibly driving total crypto market cap toward $3.4 trillion. He plans to shift into a more defensive posture once Bitcoin reclaims its 100-day moving average, unless momentum remains strong. Read Next: BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. One firm from NYC has quietly built a group of 60,000+ investors who have all joined in on an alt asset class previously exclusive to billionaires like Bezos and Gates. Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart & Target – Last Chance to get 4,000 of its pre-IPO shares for just $0.26/share! Image: Shutterstock Send To MSN: Send to MSN This article Bitcoin Dominance Rises: Is A Break To $93,000 Coming? originally appeared on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
06-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Are Bitcoin And The S&P 500 Heading For A Death Cross?
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Technical indicators alongside macro-economic factors are prompting analysts to predict further downward momentum for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). What Happened: In a podcast on Thursday, prominen analyst Benjamin Cowen warned that the S&P 500's decline could extend into April, resembling past market downturns that have had ripple effects across both equities and crypto. While March has historically marked a bottoming point during corrections—such as the financial crisis and pandemic crash—Cowen notes that sometimes the downturn extends into April. Don't Miss: 'Scrolling To UBI' — Deloitte's #1 fastest-growing software company allows users to earn money on their phones. One key date is mid-April, when the next inflation print is released. With new tariffs in focus, investors are watching closely for potential market reactions. Glassnode data has flagged a death cross forming in Bitcoin's on-chain data, with BTC's 30-day volume-weighted price crossing below the 180-day. Historically, such signals have preceded 3–6 months of downside. Why It Matters: Cowen also pointed to a critical S&P 500 metric: the S&P 500 divided by the money supply, which currently sits at levels similar to past major market rejections, including 1998, the financial crisis, the pre-pandemic high and 2021/2023 resistance levels. The 1998 rejection led to a 20–23% market drop. Cowen believes the current 10% decline could extend further to 20%, echoing that historical cautions against panic, reminding investors that not all 20% declines trigger recessions. In 1998, the S&P 500 saw a significant rally after its correction, which could signal a similar setup in 2025. What's Next: Cowen suggests watching for a potential market bottom in that first or second week of April, with an 11-week correction timeline possibly aligning with the next FOMC meeting in May. He also sees a potential death cross forming on the S&P 500, which historically has been followed by a short-term rally before any further declines. If the pattern holds, both Bitcoin and equities could be in for a counter-trend bounce before the market's next major move. Read Next: This platform is reshaping how you invest in private companies — and you can be a part of it for $0.18 per share. Arrived Home's Private Credit Fund's has historically paid an annualized dividend yield of 8.1%*, which provides access to a pool of short-term loans backed by residential real estate with just a $100 minimum. Image: Shutterstock Send To MSN: Send to MSN This article Are Bitcoin And The S&P 500 Heading For A Death Cross? originally appeared on
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analyst Benjamin Cowen warns Ethereum could drop another 50%
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of Into The Cryptoverse warns Ether (ETH) may have further to fall before altcoins can mount a sustainable comeback. In his latest market analysis, Cowen says ETH's continued decline against Bitcoin reflects broader economic forces — and a true reversal likely depends on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. 'The first thing to note is that ETH is better observed on its Bitcoin pair than its USD pair,' Cowen explained, arguing that ETH/BTC reveals deeper cycle trends. According to Cowen, Ethereum's struggles this cycle are closely tied to the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) — a stark contrast to earlier bull runs. Quantitative tightening is when the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet by selling government bonds or letting them mature — effectively pulling money out of the financial system. This tends to raise interest rates and reduce liquidity, which can hurt risk assets like crypto. 'ETH continues to drop against Bitcoin primarily due to ongoing quantitative tightening,' he said. In past cycles, ETH/BTC didn't find a bottom until QT ended — something that hasn't happened yet. Though the Fed recently slowed QT from $60 billion to $40 billion per month, Cowen compares it to wind still blowing in the wrong direction: 'Even though it's not blowing as hard, the wind is still blowing in the wrong direction.' Cowen believes ETH may need to fall another 40% to 50% to reach its 'home' — defined as a lower logarithmic regression trendline. This key level marked major cycle bottoms in December 2016 and December 2019. ETH is currently down 37% from its high, and Cowen's risk models suggest it may still need to reach between $1,300 and $1,800, with 'home' sitting around $1,589. Drawing parallels to the 1990 and 1998 stock market dips, Cowen notes that similar 'triple top' patterns and economic uncertainty preceded major rebounds — but only after painful drawdowns. 'It always feels like this time is different for Ethereum,' Cowen concluded. 'But in reality, you can see it's happened every single time so far. And this time it looks to be happening once more.' Sign in to access your portfolio
