Latest news with #BenjaminTal
Globe and Mail
11 hours ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Market Factors: White House trade woes, top LNG stock picks, and a key longevity test for the elderly
In this edition of Market Factors we'll start with the reasons why the White House is starting trade negotiations with China on the back foot. Next we'll provide top stock picks for a sector enjoying its 'biggest catalyst' in years and outline a simple test predicting chronic conditions for the elderly. China bemusedly withstood the White House's trade-related bluster and now has U.S. negotiators on the back foot. A U.S.-China trade war has negative consequences for both global investors and the U.S. economy. President Donald Trump confidently declared that the U.S. held all the important cards with respect to China trade but as CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal notes, China has called his bluff. Mr. Tal believes that the White House underestimated China's leverage. He wrote that 'In a long-lasting trade war, China might have the upper hand.' China has been de-emphasizing exports to the U.S. Over the past 15 years, trade between China and the U.S. has barely increased while Chinese exports to the rest of the world are up 80 per cent. Chinese trade negotiators can at least threaten ambivalence where trade with the Americans is concerned. Rare earth metals are a well-publicized bargaining chip for China as the country accounts for 60 to 70 per cent of production and 80 to 90 per cent of refining. (In the latter case, this is in many instances a case of environmental arbitrage, as a lot of rare earth refining is extremely damaging to the environment and China is one of the few countries where regulation is lax enough to allow it). Mr. Tal also mentions pharmaceuticals as another leverage point favouring China. For example, China produces 90 per cent of global antibiotic API (active pharmaceutical ingredient). Chinese tariffs are already having a significant effect on U.S. small businesses. Business Insider might be prone to hyperbole at times but their April headline 80% of Small Businesses That Buy From China Will Die provides a good idea of the economic damage being done. For larger U.S. corporations, a trade war with China will be felt at the profit margin level as inputs from China get more expensive or companies are forced to change their supply chains to emphasize countries where favourable trade deals exist. The U.S.-imposed deadline for punitive tariffs on Chinese goods was moved to July 9th, a day that is fast approaching. Mr. Tal expects a much gentler tone from the American delegation but it is an open question whether Mr. Trump, now faced with his TACO reputation, is constitutionally capable of concessions. CIBC energy analyst Jamie Kubik described liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand through the LNG Canada's Kitimat facility as 'the single biggest catalyst for gas producers in years.' He expects an incremental 2 billion cubic feet per day in industry production as a result, a definite tailwind to gas-focused company revenues. Mr. Kubik's top picks in the sector are Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL-T) and NuVista Energy Ltd. (NVA-T). In the first case, Kelt has new properties coming online that will raise production growth by 36 per cent in 2025 and another 22 per cent in 2026. The analyst believes Kelt is trading at a significant discount to peers. NuVista Energy is also ramping up production and set to benefit from LNG infrastructure and the expected role of gas in powering new AI-related data centers. NuVista enjoys one of the healthiest balance sheets in the sector and Mr. Kubik expects the company to distribute 75 per cent of free cash flow back to shareholders through share buybacks. The SciTechDaily site reported on a study led by the University of Sharjah finding that older people unable to lift a five kilogram weight are more likely to develop chronic lung diseases, hip fractures, joint disorders, high cholesterol, depression, Alzeimer's disease or suffer strokes. The study was extensive, with 51,000 post-50 subjects in 15 countries. The connection between muscle weakness and poor health was apparent across gender and 50+ age groups. The five kilo test will be an important starting point for doctors assessing elder health, a catalyst to begin preventative measures to fight off potential debilitating conditions. Putting the study into context does, however, bring up a 'chicken and egg' logic issue. Does muscle weakness cause chronic illness or do the habits that caused muscle weakness – cigarette smoking or inactivity, for instance - merely worsen living standards after age 50. That question is not trivial as the answer could determine if someone developing muscle after failing the test can avoid chronic illness. Looking for our updates on market movers, analyst actions, stock technicals, insider trades and other daily, weekly and monthly insight? Click here to visit our Inside the Market page. David Berman on how Middle East tensions create a bull case for Nutrien Tom Bradley provides four signs that highlight the abnormal times we're living in for markets Tim Shufelt writes on how the AI boom is back The economic data calendar is highlighted by May's CPI result on Tuesday when economists expect a 0.5 per cent month over month increase, which translates into 1.7 per cent year over year. An update on GDP for April is out on Friday. Economists expect a flat reading for month over month, which translates into 1.3 per cent growth year over year. Only one major stock will release profit results in the coming week – Alimentation Couche-Tard is expected to announce earnings of US$0.488 per share on Wednesday. In Trumpland we have annualized GDP for the first quarter on Thursday, which is expected to contract at 0.2 per cent. Durable goods orders for May are reported the same day and a jump of 6.7 per cent is forecast. Personal spending results for May will be released on Friday – a 0.2 per cent month over month gain is expected. The PCE Price Index for May is also out Friday and a small gain of 0.1 per cent is predicted. For U.S. earnings, Carnival Corp. (US$0.241 per share forecast) and FedEx Corp. (US$5.876) are out Tuesday. FedEx used to be an economic barometer indicate overall U.S. growth but is cutting orders with them to deliver with their own service, so FedEx is less reliable as a barometer. Nike Inc. (US$0.128) reports Thursday. See the full earnings and economic calendar here
Toronto Sun
16-05-2025
- Business
- Toronto Sun
Attention potential home buyers: It's your market
Developers and builders are arming buyers with incentives and negotiating as they sell down inventory. Reviews and recommendations are unbiased and products are independently selected. Postmedia may earn an affiliate commission from purchases made through links on this page. With lower mortgages, investors will be back and prices will go up again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account In a recent discussion, Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets Inc., said loud and clear that as far as new housing goes, we are in a Buyer's market. Developers and builders are arming us with incentives and negotiating as we sell down inventory. Our industry is building very little at present, so when we get through the existing inventory, there will be demand and no supply. Bank of Canada interest rates have been on a downward pathway, and three banks recently dropped their 5-year fixed mortgage rate to 3.9 per cent. With lower mortgages, investors will be back, and prices will go up again. The time to buy is 2025, when there are amazing deals to be had. There is also good news coming from GTA municipalities, some of which are finally listening to builders, developers and other experts asking for a reduction of the exorbitant development charges on new homes and condominiums. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The first example is the City of Burlington, which conducted a Development Charges Background Study last year and in May 2024, lowered development charges to spur new housing builds. An unprecedented decision speaks well to the City's commitment to remain an inclusive and accessible place for everyone. In November 2024, the City of Vaughan dramatically reduced development charge rates across the board. In a press release, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) applauded the City of Vaughan for adopting a new Development Charges Rate Reduction and Deferral Policy. 'BILD recognizes and commends Mayor Del Duca and the City of Vaughan for taking bold action to address housing supply and the cost to build by lowering development charges,' said Dave Wilkes, President and CEO of BILD. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The City of Mississauga has temporarily reduced development charges as well by 50 per cent, and by 100 per cent for three-bedroom apartments in purpose-built rental buildings. In addition, Mississauga City Council will defer the collection of residential development charges for all residential developments and collect them at occupancy. In a press release, David Wilkes said, 'The City of Mississauga is walking the walk when it comes to new housing … We would also like to acknowledge and thank the Federal Government for its direct financial support of Mississauga's efforts. We encourage all regions, cities and towns in the GTA to follow the vision and lead of Mississauga.' Of course, lower mortgage interest rates are a positive factor in addressing housing affordability, but for new housing, we need more than reductions in development charges. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. With the federal government offering incentives for municipalities to act in efforts to ease housing affordability and supply, we should see more action from local governments. However, we also need reductions in approvals timelines. Usually these involve the builder/developer submitting detailed plans to the appropriate municipalities, as well as city staff reviews, public consultation meetings, and a council vote. This can take up to two years and more, which results in home prices becoming even higher. Sometimes needed change takes time to filter through our systems. The fact remains that anyone thinking of purchasing a new home or condo would be wise to act sooner rather than later. Barbara Lawlor is CEO and Partner at Baker Real Estate Incorporated. Keep current with The Baker Blog at
