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Indian Express
7 days ago
- Climate
- Indian Express
IMD Mumbai Director interview: ‘Timeline of the monsoon doesn't matter. We can expect many days of heavy to very heavy rain'
From no heat wave day to heavy pre-monsoon showers that shattered records, this May has been one for the history books for Mumbai. After experiencing light to moderate showers from the second week of the month, monsoon arrived in Mumbai with a bang on May 26, making it the earliest recorded onset in the past 75 years. With the city experiencing an early arrival of monsoon, Shubhangi Bhute, Director, IMD (Mumbai) and head of Regional Meteorological Centre for Western India, spoke to The Indian Express about the factors influencing the early arrival and what Mumbai can expect going forward. Here are the edited excerpts: Q: This year, May has been unique for the city. Why did we see such heavy pre-monsoon showers, and what led to the earliest onset of the monsoon in the past 75 years at least? Shubhangi Bhute: In May, we did not see any rise in temperatures, with temperatures remaining normal and sometimes, because of rainfall activity, we have also seen that the temperatures have dropped to 32 degree Celsius as well. This month, monsoon also set into Mumbai well in advance, making it the earliest onset in the last 75 years. Earlier, there have been only five occasions (years) when the monsoon set in May, on May 31 and May 29. As well predicted, conditions were very favourable for the early onset. This year, monsoon had set into Andaman well in advance by May 13, then it set over Kerala by May 24, and then reached Maharashtra by May 25. The monsoon onset is declared when all the criteria for the declaration are met, and these include many factors about rainfall requirements, wind field, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), among others. Besides that, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also one of the key contributors. Earlier, MJO was in the eighth phase, and now, it is in the second phase, which is favourable for good monsoons in the Indian region. Furthermore, the neutral phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and neutral El Niño are also present. And altogether, these factors have led to the early onset of monsoon in the Indian region. Q. This time, we saw that the monsoon arrived in Mumbai very quickly, merely two days after it entered Kerala. This is in stark contrast to the normal timeline of at least 10 days. Bhute: We saw that the monsoon advanced very fast. After reaching Andaman on May 13, it entered Karwar almost a week in advance. It reached Karwar and Belgaum by May 24, and then within two days, it reached Mumbai by 26th May. Besides meeting the basic conditions for the declaration of monsoon in Kerala, the monsoon advancement also depends on two branches — the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal branches. If the Arabian Sea branch on the western coast is very active, with active systems like low-pressure areas, then the southwest monsoon starts setting in from the Arabian Sea side. However, currently, the Bay of Bengal side is very lull. This means that there is no system in the Bay of Bengal to pull the moisture, therefore, monsoon advancement has been delayed on the eastern side. Once a low-pressure area forms in the eastern branch of the Bay of Bengal, the winds will be pulled, and the monsoon will also be covered on the other coast. Presently, while the Bay of Bengal branch was lull, the Arabian Sea was very active with a low-pressure area, which contributed to the pulling in of moisture from the ocean to land. This further contributed to the early advancement of monsoon. Q: Several reports and weather observers have suggested that after the early advancement, there will be a lull in showers. What does this mean? Will the rains discontinue now? Bhute: The timeline of the monsoon doesn't matter. Even if the monsoon were to arrive in June, ahead of schedule or even if it had been delayed, it is not necessary that the city would receive heavy rains every single day. Rains during monsoon are not continuous, simple or steady, as they always depend on the systems. There will always be a variation in the quantum of rain, and there may even be days when no rainfall is registered. In Mumbai, generally August is seen as the month of dry spell when there is the least rain, and July is the wettest monsoon period, while June is the month of onset. Now that the monsoons have arrived early in May, we will observe the rain patterns this month. Q: This year, IMD has forecast above normal rains all over the country. What does this mean for Mumbai? Bhute: In the Long Range Period forecast, IMD's chart has indicated that above-normal rainfall is very likely along the west coast, particularly around the Maharashtra region. This suggests that the percentage of possibility of excess rainfall is more even in Mumbai. Q: Does this mean Mumbai can see more flash floods, as we observed on May 26 with the arrival of monsoon? Bhute: The patterns of monsoon have now changed as we receive heavy rains within a short period. While we cannot say right now whether the frequency of flash floods will be higher, we can definitely expect many days where we will receive 'heavy to very heavy rain'. As per the IMD's forecast for this season, a higher frequency of rainy days is very likely, as we can expect more 'heavy to very heavy rainfall' type of days in Mumbai. Q: IMD often draws flak for failing to issue timely forecast warnings and alerts. What makes forecasting a challenging task in a city like Mumbai? Bhute: First of all, we are in a tropical region where the frequency of weather changes is very fast. Now, in the monsoons, we expect rains from the southwesterly winds, and that has to be supported by upper air winds. While generally we get rains because of southwesterly winds, which bring moisture, and we get the convection of the rains, the changes in wind patterns and other systems happen at the micro level. Mumbai is only a 40 to 60 km patch, which is in the Arabian Sea. Compared to the larger state of Maharashtra, it is a very small stretch. It is very difficult to forecast for such a small stretch, as sub-kilometre mesoscale models are unavailable. Besides being in the tropical zone, Mumbai's proximity to the sea also means that the weather changes very rapidly. On land, we observe fixed patterns where systems generally move in a very particular manner. But in Mumbai, we will see that some parts receive rain while the other parts may remain dry and even sunny. Furthermore, while we predict and issue forecast warnings on the basis of synoptic conditions one day in advance, changes happen very fast within half an hour or in hours. Even if we look at May 26, extremely heavy rainfall occurred only in South Mumbai, while the rest of the suburbs experienced much less rain during the daytime. Within two days, the Colaba station received more than 250 mm of rainfall while the Santacruz station recorded heavy showers on the second day. Whenever we issue orange or red alerts, we mention the likelihood of rain in isolated pockets, as it is very unlikely that the entire city would receive heavy rain. Q: What is the system of issuing red alerts? Sometimes, red alerts are issued when the intensity of rain relaxes or the showers discontinue after a red warning is sounded. Bhute: For red warnings, we generally follow the orange alert. While we forecast heavy rainfall for an orange alert, the city may likely experience extremely heavy rainfall for only two hours, after which it may dry up. On May 26, too, we had issued forecasts with orange and then, red alerts, indicating that the city would receive heavy rain during the first half, following which the intensity would reduce. However, we issue our forecast warnings for a period of 24 hours, as immediately removing the red alert is not ideal. Even if the system relaxes and rains have reduced, we keep our warnings for a 24-hour period, as the systems can always intensify and bring heavy rain again. Often, it also happens that we issue our red alerts 24 hours or 48 hours in advance, but sometimes the systems can change very fast. Furthermore, it is not easy to withdraw a red alert immediately after it is issued. Our objective is that the administration and the public should not be in trouble or underprepared. If there is a possibility of rain, we can always overwarn rather than underwarn, as there should not arise a situation where our underwarning leads to a lack of adequate preparation or there is an adverse situation or mishap. Sometimes, even if we are expecting heavy rain, which can be categorised as orange, we do not remove our red alert, as extra precaution is always better.
Indian Express
26-05-2025
- Climate
- Indian Express
Mumbai under water: Why monsoon came early to city this year, and why it is raining so much
As showers intensified in Kerala over the past week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday announced the onset of monsoon in Kerala on Saturday — its earliest since 2009. Within a day, the southwest monsoon advanced into parts of Maharashtra on Sunday and by Monday morning, the IMD also declared the onset of monsoon in Mumbai. As the early arrival of monsoon threw life out of gear in the maximum city as several pockets reeled with water logging, traffic and slow train services, this year's monsoon onset also shattered all time records. Data show that this is the earliest that monsoon has ever arrived in Mumbai with the previous earliest monsoon onset date logged at May 29 — in the years 1971, 1962 and 1956. For perspective, the normal date of monsoon onset in Mumbai is June 11 — making this year's arrival over two weeks ahead of schedule. Typically, monsoon onset in Mumbai happens nearly ten days after the onset of monsoon is announced in Kerala. The normal date of onset in Kerala is June 1, following which the southwest monsoon typically advances in Maharashtra by June 6 and then ushers into Mumbai coast by June 11. This year, however, the early advancement of the southwest monsoon threw the normal patterns out of gear with the southwest monsoons traversing from Kerala to Maharashtra within a course of 24 hours, as against the typical timeline of six to Shubhangi Bhute, director of IMD Mumbai, the early onset of monsoon across Kerala and fast progression was spurred by the 'very favourable' conditions for monsoon onset. 'We observed that the atmospheric conditions were satisfying all the parameters and criterias on the basis of which onset is declared,' Bhute told Express on Sunday. Furthermore, senior meteorologists pointed to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is currently active, as another crucial contributing factor. A complex ocean-atmospheric phenomena, MJO is one the most important factors influencing Indian monsoons. It originated in the Indian Ocean and a key feature is the disturbance of clouds, wind and pressure moves eastward at the speed of 4-8 metres per second. Within 30 to 60 days, MJO wind bands can travel around the world and cause significant weather changes during their movement. In a favourable phase, it can enhance rainfall over India during the monsoon season. In its extended range forecast issued on May 22, the IMD had said that the MJO was then in Phase 4 – with an amplitude > 1 – which is indicative of strong rainfall and storms in the region. 'While the favourable MJO is one contributing factor, the cross equatorial flow is also very strong at the moment, which further brings in a lot of moisture,' added an IMD official. Meanwhile, IMD scientists said that a low pressure area in the Arabian Sea – that developed owing to a cyclonic circulation – also further aided the fast movement of the southwest monsoon. For the record, it was this low pressure area that had ushered in heavy pre-monsoon showers in Mumbai over the past few weeks. Why has this May been one for the history books for Mumbai? Besides the earliest monsoon onset ever recorded in Mumbai's history, the ongoing spells have broken several other records. In what has made this month Mumbai's wettest May in the past 107 years, the IMD's Colaba observatory recorded 295 mm rain so far this month. Prior to this, the heaviest showers in the island city had been recorded in May 1918 at 279.4 mm. Meanwhile, having already received 197 mm rain this month, this is also Santacruz's rainiest May month since 2021. Thanks to the heavy spells, heatwaves – a typical phenomenon during May – have also eluded the city this year. In fact, earlier on May 8, Mumbai woke up also to its coldest May morning ever as the minimum temperatures dipped to 22.2°C, as per the Colaba coastal observatory, which is the coldest day ever recorded in the island city since 1951. The early onset has come at a time when Mumbai is already reeling under a surplus of over 700 percent from the actual normal rain for the month of May. Not only the metropolis but the entire state of Maharashtra is currently experiencing an unusual May with Buldhana district having logged a surplus of over 4000 percent from its actual long period average for the region, while coastal districts like Sindhudurg and Raigad have recorded surplus of over 2600 percent and 2000 percent respectively so far. What can Mumbai expect this monsoon season? Having now experienced an early arrival, Mumbai can expect above normal showers this monsoon season. The IMD had said in its long-range forecast that this year the country is expected to experience above normal monsoon, which is forecast to be '105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%'. The Met Department has pointed out that the neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions which are slated to prevail during the monsoon, will contribute to a bountiful season.
Time of India
25-05-2025
- Climate
- Time of India
Maharashtra: IMD issues red alert for South Konkan districts as heavy rainfall likely across state
Mumbai: A red alert was issued for the South Konkan districts of Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg on Saturday as a depression system crossed near Ratnagiri and Dapoli, bringing heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds. According to Shubhangi A Bhute, Scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), "the depression brought heavy to very heavy rainfall to several regions in Maharashtra. The weather office also alerted coastal districts and warned fishermen against venturing into the sea due to rough conditions." The IMD said, "A red alert has been given to South and Sindhudurg are looking at the depression which has already crossed between Ratnagiri and Dapoli." Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Never Throw Away the Water After Boiling Eggs - The Reason is Genius! Tips and Tricks Undo The red alert indicated the possibility of extremely heavy rainfall in isolated places in these districts. Raigad was also placed under an orange alert, while Mumbai, Thane, and Palghar were issued a yellow warning, forecasting moderate to heavy showers in these areas. A fisherman's warning was also issued along the Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts, as the sea conditions remained unsafe due to the active monsoon system in the Arabian Sea. Live Events "We have given a Fisherman's Warning Alert for South Konkan along with the entire Maharashtra and Gujarat region, looking at the active monsoon season," said Bhute. Bhute further added, "Yes, the monsoon has been active till now in South India, and conditions are favourable for the first onset of monsoon in Maharashtra." The IMD estimated that within two to three days, the monsoon could officially arrive in the state, with rainfall already advancing up to Karwar. Besides the coastal Konkan belt, Satara and Kolhapur districts in western Maharashtra were also put on red alert, with forecasts warning of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in some parts. The rest of the districts in the state were issued yellow alerts, advising caution. "A low-pressure area near Ratnagiri has crossed Ratnagiri and Dapoli. Based on the 8:30 am weather observation, red alerts have been issued for Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Satara, and Kolhapur," Bhute added.
NDTV
23-05-2025
- Climate
- NDTV
Weather Office Issues 'Red Alert' For Goa, 'Orange Alert' For Mumbai. See Full Forecast
Quick Read Summary is AI generated, newsroom reviewed. The Indian Meteorological Department has issued a orange alert for Maharashtra. Coastal districts of Goa, Raigad, and Ratnagiri are warned of extreme rainfall. Fishermen are advised to avoid sea due to rough conditions until May 27. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a "red alert" for several coastal districts of Maharashtra and Goa, warning of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall from Friday through the weekend. According to the weather office, a red alert, forecasting the likelihood of extremely heavy rainfall, has been issued for Goa, Raigad and Ratnagiri on May 23. An orange alert is in place for Mumbai, Thane, Palghar, Sindhudurg, as well as ghats of Pune and Satara during this period for heavy to hefty rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds, per PTI. The IMD issued an orange alert for Mumbai for May 23 and 24, warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds reaching speeds of 50 to 60 kilometres per hour at isolated places. According to the weather office, the cause of this pre-monsoon rain is the formation of a low-pressure system over the east-central Arabian Sea off the coast of south Konkan and Goa. It is likely to intensify and bring intense showers across Konkan and other parts of Maharashtra, the IMD said. On Thursday, Shubhangi Bhute, a Regional Meteorological Centre official, said the low-pressure area will further intensify within 36 hours and move northwards. "Therefore, the entire Konkan coast has been placed under orange alert, while a red alert has been sounded for Raigad and Ratnagiri districts. During this period, wind speeds will range between 30-40 kmph and may reach up to 60 kmph at some isolated locations," Ms Bhute said. Some places are likely to witness heavy to extremely heavy rain with thunderstorms, she added, warning fishermen against venturing into the sea along the coasts of Gujarat and Maharashtra. "Sea condition is likely to be rough till the night of May 23... and will likely become rough to very rough from May 24 to 27," the IMD bulletin said, adding that the "conditions are likely to become favourable for Monsoon onset over Kerala during the next 2-3 days." Fishermen currently at sea have been advised to return to the shore by the afternoon of May 23, while fishing operations in the Eastcentral and adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea will remain suspended from May 25 to 27, per the weather office. Meanwhile, an isolated hailstorm has been predicted over Himachal Pradesh and isolated heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand on 23rd and 24th May. Duststorm, reaching the speed of 40 to 50 kilometres per hour, is also likely over West Rajasthan during 23rd to 25th May. Heatwave wanings According to IMD, heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are expected in isolated pockets of West Rajasthan during 22nd to 24th May. Heat wave conditions are also very likely in isolated pockets of Jammu, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and north Madhya Pradesh on May 23. East Rajasthan and West Rajasthan are likely to experience a heat wave in the coming days. "Warm night conditions very likely in a few pockets of south Haryana, Punjab on 22nd & 23rd and West Rajasthan during 22nd-24th May," the weather office said.
Mint
21-05-2025
- Climate
- Mint
Mumbai on rainfall alert: Cyclonic circulation expected to influence weather pattern till...
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast increased rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds in parts of Maharashtra till 24 May, due to a cyclonic circulation likely to form over the east-central Arabian Sea, off the Karnataka coast. The weather bureau has issued a yellow alert for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) for the next four days, warning of light to moderate rainfall. 'Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning, light to moderate rainfall and gusty winds (40–50 kmph) are likely at isolated places,' the IMD said in its forecast for Mumbai. Read | MI vs DC Mumbai weather report: Will rain at Wankhede dampen crucial IPL 2025 clash? Here's what IMD says Speaking to news agency PTI, IMD official Shubhangi Bhute stated that rainfall activity in Maharashtra is expected to increase between 21 and 24 May under the influence of the cyclonic system. The weather disturbance is expected to impact parts of Maharashtra, including south Konkan, south-central Maharashtra, and Mumbai. "There is a possibility of heavy rainfall with thunder at some places, accompanied by gusty winds reaching speeds of 30–40 kmph or possibly higher at isolated locations," Bhute said. For May 20, a yellow alert was issued for Palghar, Thane, Mumbai, and Raigad districts. Meanwhile, a red alert has been issued for the Sindhudurg district until 24 May. An orange alert is in effect for Ratnagiri, Ahilyanagar, Pune, Kolhapur, Satara, Sangli, Solapur, Latur, and Dharashiv. Parts of Mumbai and adjoining areas witnessed heavy showers, thunderstorms, and lightning on Tuesday evening. While the downpour brought much-needed relief from the intense heatwave, it also disrupted daily life. Also read | '15 mins of rains causing mayhem': Viral videos from Mumbai show massive waterlogging on roads in Andheri In a tragic incident, six people were killed after a slab from the top floor of a four-storey building collapsed in Kalyan. The debris fell onto the lower floor, claiming the lives of four, including two children. The heavy rainfall also caused waterlogging and traffic snarls in multiple areas across the western state, creating major inconvenience for commuters.
