09-05-2025
Trump's tariffs weigh heavy on truckers as overseas shipments sink
Big Blue Box trucker Freddy Lazo steps out of his rig at the truck terminal in New Brighton, Minn. in April 2025. (Photo by Max Nesterak/Minnesota Reformer)
Freddy Lazo left a restaurant job for a higher paying one in trucking about two-and-a-half years ago. But the way President Trump's trade war is going, he's thinking he might have to go back to waiting tables soon.
'It's really super slow,' Lazo said, looking across the mostly empty trucking yard of shipping company Big Blue Box in New Brighton.
A slump in work is to be expected in this industry every once in a while, although in normal times, it's usually brief and quickly followed by a boom in business. Looking out at the horizon though, harder times may lie ahead.
Since 'Liberation Day' on April 2, when Trump announced tariffs on the whole world, many retailers have suspended orders of patio furniture, Barbie dolls, candles and everything else that arrives on rail from coastal ports in giant shipping containers, which Lazo trucks to final destinations across the Midwest. Although Trump paused the so-called reciprocal tariffs, the 145% tax on Chinese imports and a 10% tax on imports from most other countries remain, along with deep uncertainty.
Lazo is an independent contractor, which means if he's not driving, he's not getting paid. It also means he's not eligible for unemployment benefits to ease the pain of lost earnings. Fortunately, he's already paid off his older rig and has been able to tap into his savings. Still, a protracted slowdown would mean he or his wife will need to get another job to support their five kids.
'If this continues… I definitely have to find a different way to make money,' Lazo said.
Big Blue Box Vice President Ted Longbella said they aim to move about 120 containers a day — big blue shipping containers, as the name suggests. Toys, windows and games come in. Scrap metal, grain and dairy powder go out.
He's been keeping a close eye on the number of blank sailings, when an ocean shipping company cancels a planned trip, because it tells him what demand will be like in the near future.
He's like a taxi driver staring up at the airport sign listing arrivals and watching one flight after another canceled. There are passengers that still need rides home now, but pretty soon the airport will be empty.
There are more than 56,000 semi-truck drivers and another 18,000 light truck drivers in Minnesota, according to the state Department of Employment and Economic Development, meaning widespread layoffs and reductions in income could ripple throughout the greater economy.
Ocean carriers in the Pacific have been canceling trips at a faster rate than during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to freight forwarder Flexport. The company reports more than 25% of weekly transpacific service-loops were canceled in late April and early May compared to 24% in the same time period in 2020.
Cargo at the massive Port of Los Angeles, which handled nearly 20 million containers in 2024, is down 35% in early May from the same time last year.
To prepare for the coming dip, Longbella said he's put on his salesman hat to find new business to keep his 140 employees and independent contractors busy — and keep them from leaving to work for competitors.
He said truckers in Minnesota will really feel the effects of the tariffs around June, when the surge of goods that were panic-ordered before Liberation Day turns into a trickle.
That lines up with a timeline of turmoil from Apollo Global Management, which predicts empty shelves by the end of May and layoffs in trucking and retail in early June. A recession could follow shortly after that.
The situation could be worse had companies not diversified their suppliers after the COVID-19 pandemic to be less reliant on China. Many companies have been able to switch to suppliers from other countries and are now loading up on goods before the pause on reciprocal tariffs lifts on July 9.
Yet it's not just imports that are suffering.
'We're usually doing a lot of soybean pickups throughout the whole year, and those have slowed since the tariff uncertainty,' Longbella said.
Trump administration officials are scheduled to meet with Chinese representatives this weekend in Switzerland, which could help lead to a deal that reduces the tariffs on China that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as effectively an embargo. Even if Trump lays down arms in the trade war soon — an unlikely, best case scenario — the trucking and retail industries will still feel aftershocks.
'On the other side, demand is going to be nuts,' Longbella said.
That will give shipping companies power to raise prices like they did during the pandemic. The challenge for truckers is to make it to the other side.
'Trucking companies have to pay their bills in one or two weeks,' Longbella said. 'A lot of companies will have gone out of business, unfortunately, because a lot of trucking companies are hand-to-mouth.'
