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Fox Sports
16 hours ago
- Sport
- Fox Sports
2025 Belmont Stakes: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's expert picks, best bets
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making. The Belmont Stakes is finally upon us. I'll be in New York again along with our FOX Sports crew for this year's race. The 157th Belmont Stakes will take place at Saratoga Race Course for the second year in a row due to ongoing renovations at the iconic Belmont Park. The post time is set for 6:41 p.m. ET, and the race will be broadcast on FOX. I think we are in for another memorable weekend. And when it comes to betting on the race, I have you covered. So let's jump into my betting card and thoughts on this Saturday's big race. 1. Hill Road: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Irad Ortiz The Peter Pan winner appears to be the best of the Triple Crown newcomers, but I do not think we're looking at a horse that can win the race. He could, however, manage his way into the trifecta from off the pace. That's something he's done in all three of his starts on dirt, including when he was 61-1 for his previous connections in the BC Juvenile. I'm not sure what was behind him in the Peter Pan, but you probably have to use for third just out of respect for the jockey/trainer combo. 2. Sovereignty: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total) Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: Junior Alvarado The Derby winner ran a huge race — his career-top Beyer — after getting a clear run home. It wasn't the cleanest of trips, though, as he did clip heels early in the race. I didn't have an issue with Bill Mott skipping the Preakness, as he knows his horse and he'll be pointed toward the bigger races the remainder of the year. Disappointed, yes, but I get it. We know he can handle the offgoing, so any rain will not be an issue. What could be an issue is the pace setup. He's likely not going to get the mad dash for the lead as he did in the Derby, which means he's not going to get the same pace to close into. Saratoga also has a tendency to be a bit more kind to horses closer to the lead on big-stakes days. And that's not to say it's a conveyor belt, but it can be hard on dead closers. He can certainly win, but I get the sense that Journalism will get the jump on him, and, unlike he did in the Derby, hold him off late. But if you're playing multi-race wagers, you obviously want to be covered with him. 3. Rodriguez: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total) Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Mike Smith The presence of Crudo likely means Rodriguez won't catch a flier out of the gate and wire the field like he did in the Wood Memorial. That said, he certainly has a bit more class at both this level and routing than Crudo. He was scratched prior to the Derby with a foot issue, but there's no reason to believe he isn't good to go here. He'll be a pace factor at the minimum, and if you're looking for a bit or a price play, he's the logical choice. However, asking him to make up about 11 lengths on Journalism — which is what he was beaten by in the San Felipe — seems like a tall order. I'll limit my use to underneath. 4. Uncaged: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Luis Saez Tip of the cap to Mike Repole for filling out the field with Uncaged, but he's shown nothing to have anyone believe he's a threat to hit the board here off a poor showing in his first graded stakes try in the Peter Pan where he was over ten lengths behind Hill Road. 5. Crudo: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez Crudo hasn't been headed in either of his last two races — his maiden win and a win in the Sir Barton — so we know Johnny V will have this horse on the lead, giving Rodriguez company up front. While speed is always dangerous, I can't see him hanging around here for a piece of the tri. But the owners, including chef Bobby Flay, will get a thrill for a while. 6. Baeza: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total) Trainer: John Shirreffs Jockey: Flavien Prat You can go one of two ways with Baeza. The first is that he's set to take a big step forward, and we haven't seen his best yet as he's made just five lifetime starts. Off a five-week rest, this should be a career best for a runner who's related to 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch. The other way to view Baeza — he faced Rodriguez in what were both of their second starts — Rodriguez beat him by seven lengths that day when Baeza was 15-1. He was 14-1 in the Santa Anita Derby and couldn't keep Journalism from going by, despite Journalism having trouble in the race. He was 14-1 again in the Derby and finished behind both Sovereignty and Journalism. So what are we to believe will be different here, especially with Baeza at one third of the price he's been? Maybe we get a change in tactics? He is certainly the buzz horse and can win, but his price will likely be way shorter than his true odds should be. It wouldn't be surprising in the least if he runs third behind the two that finished in front of him in Louisville. 7. Journalism: +160 (bet $10 to win $26 total) Trainer: Michael McCarthy Jockey: Umberto Rispoli Journalism will be the only runner to participate in all three legs of the Triple Crown as he's fresh off his runner-up finish in the Derby and dramatic win in the Preakness. I must admit, I was a tad surprised he came out of the Preakness as well as he apparently has and is running here. But I'm glad he is. Much credit to trainer Michael McCarthy. He's looked great on the track here as well. His versatility and athleticism are his strengths, as evidenced by what we saw in the Preakness. Maybe he hit the front in Louisville a bit too soon? Who knows? But he ran a winning race that day and just got beat by Sovereignty, who simply ran a better race. Given what I expect from the pace scenario Saturday, I think Journalism gets the jump on Sovereignty. I think Journalism has enough to hold him off this time to become the first horse in 70 years to finish second in the Derby, then go win the Preakness and Belmont. 8. Heart of Honor: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total) Trainer: Jamie Osborne Jockey: Saffie Osborne Credit to the connections for shipping to the U.S. to give the Preakness a try, but Heart of Honor never looked comfortable over the Pimlico surface and was never in the race. I'd expect a similar result here when adding the Derby winner and Derby third-place finisher to the list of competitors. Suggested Ways to Bet the Belmont (adjust your dollar amounts accordingly to your budget) $10 Win 7 ($10)$10 Exacta 7 with 2/6 ($20)$2 Trifecta 7 with 2/6 with 1/3 ($4)$1 Superfecta 7 with 2/6 with 1/2/3/6 with All ($30) $1 Superfecta 2/6 with 7 with 1/2/3/6 with All ($30) Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @ chrisfallica . Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account , and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily! recommended Get more from Horse Racing Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more in this topic
New York Times
2 days ago
- Business
- New York Times
2025 Belmont Stakes power rankings: How Journalism, Sovereignty and the field stack up
The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes takes off on Saturday night at Saratoga Race Course. While any horse in the field has a chance to cross first, this year's Belmont odds are led by the two horses that split the Kentucky Derby and Preakness: Sovereignty and Journalism. Journalism was the Derby runner-up. Advertisement The decision of Sovereignty's trainer, Bill Mott, not to run the Derby winner in the Preakness ended the potential for a 2025 Triple Crown. But, with a win, either horse could at least secure two of horse racing's most coveted jewels. Journalism's stunning come-from-behind win in the Preakness reminded many casual fans that, even without Triple-Crown stakes, each leg of the endeavor is worth getting excited about. And what better way to whet our appetite than a good old-fashioned power ranking? This list will be based solely on the thoroughbreds' past performances and will not take odds into consideration. To help summarize their performances, each horse will be given an average score using a 10-5-3-2-1 scoring system for places. (A first-place finish gets 10, a second-place finish gets 5, etc.) We'll add up their points and divide by the number of races in order to get the average. Horses that raced in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes will receive a 3x boost for those races. Without further ado, here are our rankings: Career points per race: 10.33 Races in 2025: 3 Result on last start: Kentucky Derby, May 3 (won) If this list were based purely on the points, Sovereignty would've been No. 2. But he gets the top spot for three reasons. First, he beat Journalism in the Kentucky Derby — on a muddy track to boot. This year's Belmont Stakes will be the same length as the Derby, so there's some comparison there. Second, his scheduled rider is Junior Alvarado. Alvarado jockeyed Sovereignty in two of his three races as a 3-year-old, and those were both first-place finishes. Third, when looking at the race results, it doesn't seem to matter how he starts. Here's where he was in his three 3-year-old races at the three-quarter pole: 17th out of 19, fifth out of 10 and sixth out of six. He finished first, second and first in those races, respectively. He ruled the front stretch! 👑 Watch Sovereignty and Junior Alvarado win the 151st Kentucky Derby ⤵️ — Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 3, 2025 Career points per race: 12.57 Races in 2025: 4 Result on last start: Preakness Stakes, May 17 (won) The Preakness champ has raced seven times and won five of those races. He finished second to Sovereignty at the Kentucky Derby and third in his very first race as a 2-year-old. His race results prove he's got speed. Just take a look at the gear he found to come back and win the Preakness. Incredible recovery from Journalism to win the Preakness Stakes! — Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 17, 2025 Career points per race: 6.6 Races in 2025: 4 Result on last start: Wood Memorial Stakes, April 5 (won) Rodriguez was scratched from both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness due to a foot injury. But based on the results of his five career starts, he deserves this spot in the rankings. He owns two first-place finishes, beating Baeza (third in the Derby) in one and Grande (scratched from the Derby) in another. Advertisement He has two second-place finishes, one of which saw him come up short to Citizen Bull (who led the field for a majority of the Kentucky Derby). His worst finish was third in a race that was won by Preakness champ, Journalism. It's worth noting that his jockey in the most recent win, and his last race, was Mike Smith, who's also scheduled to be his jockey in the Belmont. Career points per race: 7.3 Races in 2025: 3 Result on last start: Sir Barton Stakes, May 17 (won) Crudo has raced three times, all as a 3-year-old, and won twice. In both of those victories, he led wire-to-wire. His worst finish, fourth place, came in his first race. Despite having a higher points average than Rodriguez, he drops a spot in the rankings as Rodriguez has slightly tougher competition with Triple Crown participants on his rivalry resume. It's all (4) Crudo in race 2! (2) Dixie Devil checks in second, (1) Night Agent takes third. — Keeneland Racing (@keenelandracing) April 19, 2025 Points per race: 5.8 Races in 2025: 4 Result on last start: Kentucky Derby, May 3 (third) It wouldn't be hard to make the case that Baeza should be ranked higher. In his most recent starts, the Kentucky Derby and the Santa Anita Derby, he finished just behind Journalism both times — third and second, respectively. Putting it another way, he's only finished behind the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners his last two times out. He has raced four times this year (five in all). He owns one win and, aside from his previously mentioned derby performances, has a second-place finish to fellow Belmont participant Rodriguez. Points per race: 6.43 Races in 2025: 5 Result on last start: Preakness Stakes, May 17 (fifth) Heart of Honor made his U.S. debut at the Preakness with a fifth-place finish. Prior to that, he raced four times as a 3-year-old, winning once and finishing second three times. However, in two of those second-place finishes, he came up short by just a nose. One of those near wins was in the UAE Derby, where he was bested by Kentucky Derby participant Admire Daytona. Absolute thriller! 🙃 HEART OF HONOR lunged late in the @Jumeirah UAE Derby but 𝐀𝐃𝐌𝐈𝐑𝐄 𝐃𝐀𝐘𝐓𝐎𝐍𝐀 takes the spoils for 🇯🇵#DWC25 | @emirates — Dubai Racing Club (@RacingDubai) April 5, 2025 Had he been able to pull out those victories, he'd likely have been slotted higher in these rankings. Points per race: 5.2 average Races in 2025: 2 Result on last start: Peter Pan Stakes, May 10 (won) This colt has raced five times in all. He's won twice, finished third two times and seventh once. He's only raced twice this year, but claims this spot in our rankings because his most recent start was a win over a field that included fellow Belmont contestant Uncaged. What a finish! HILL ROAD comes flying late to earn his first stakes win in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes with Flavien Prat aboard for trainer Chad Brown! — NYRA (🗽) (@TheNYRA) May 10, 2025 Points per race: 5.5 Races in 2025: 3 Result on last start: Peter Pan Stakes, May 10 (sixth) Uncaged owns two wins in his four career races. It's worth noting that both of those victories came on muddy tracks. His other finishes were fourth and sixth. (Photo of Sovereignty and Journalism: Grace Bradley / Getty Images)
Washington Post
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- Washington Post
Journalism opens as the Belmont favorite. Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty is the 2nd choice
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. — Kentucky Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Journalism opened as the 8-5 favorite in the Belmont Stakes when post positions were drawn Monday for the final leg of the Triple Crown. Derby winner Sovereignty was set as the second choice on the morning line at odds of 2-1 and drew the No. 2 post. Journalism, near the outside with the No. 7 post, is the only horse running in all three Triple Crown races. 'He's been kind of the same horse since July of last summer,' trainer Michael McCarthy said. 'He does everything you'd ask a good horse to do: He eats well, trains well, acts well. I thought through the last six, seven weeks here, his energy's been the same throughout.' Sovereignty is back after owners and trainer Bill Mott opted to skip the Preakness and run the Belmont on five weeks of rest, and things have gone swimmingly since he arrived at historic Saratoga Race Couse. 'We've been very lucky with everything that's gone on sine he's been here,' Mott said. 'He's been moving well over the track.' Sovereignty and Journalism in the field set up this Belmont, the second at Saratoga while renovations are made to its usual home on Long Island, to be a rematch between the first two Triple Crown winners who were also first and second the Derby. 'He's improved, as I think as many of these horses have,' Mott said of Sovereignty. 'I think this entire group, if you look at their form and the way they've developed over the course of this year, I think they've made steady progress and it should be an interesting race.' No. 6 Baeza, who finished third in Kentucky on the first Saturday in May, opened at 4-1. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's Rodriguez, who was scratched from the Derby because of a minor foot bruise and held out of the Preakness, was next at 6-1 and will leave the starting gate from the No. 3 post. The field of eight horses also includes No. 8 Heart of Honor, tied for the longest shot on the board at 30-1 after finishing fifth in the Preakness. New to the Triple Crown trail are No. 1 Hill Road (10-1), No. 5 Crudo (15-1) and No. 4 Uncaged (30-1). Journalism, who was favorited in the Derby and the Preakness and at the moment is the top 3-year-old in the country, looks like the horse to beat. 'Saratoga is very good for horses,' McCarthy said. 'He seems a little bit re-energized up here. We're looking for a wonderful renewal of the Belmont here on Saturday.' ___ AP horse racing:
Associated Press
3 days ago
- General
- Associated Press
Journalism opens as the Belmont favorite. Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty is the 2nd choice
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. (AP) — Kentucky Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Journalism opened as the 8-5 favorite in the Belmont Stakes when post positions were drawn Monday for the final leg of the Triple Crown. Derby winner Sovereignty was set as the second choice on the morning line at odds of 2-1 and drew the No. 2 post. Journalism, near the outside with the No. 7 post, is the only horse running in all three Triple Crown races. 'He's been kind of the same horse since July of last summer,' trainer Michael McCarthy said. 'He does everything you'd ask a good horse to do: He eats well, trains well, acts well. I thought through the last six, seven weeks here, his energy's been the same throughout.' Sovereignty is back after owners and trainer Bill Mott opted to skip the Preakness and run the Belmont on five weeks of rest, and things have gone swimmingly since he arrived at historic Saratoga Race Couse. 'We've been very lucky with everything that's gone on sine he's been here,' Mott said. 'He's been moving well over the track.' Sovereignty and Journalism in the field set up this Belmont, the second at Saratoga while renovations are made to its usual home on Long Island, to be a rematch between the first two Triple Crown winners who were also first and second the Derby. 'He's improved, as I think as many of these horses have,' Mott said of Sovereignty. 'I think this entire group, if you look at their form and the way they've developed over the course of this year, I think they've made steady progress and it should be an interesting race.' No. 6 Baeza, who finished third in Kentucky on the first Saturday in May, opened at 4-1. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's Rodriguez, who was scratched from the Derby because of a minor foot bruise and held out of the Preakness, was next at 6-1 and will leave the starting gate from the No. 3 post. The field of eight horses also includes No. 8 Heart of Honor, tied for the longest shot on the board at 30-1 after finishing fifth in the Preakness. New to the Triple Crown trail are No. 1 Hill Road (10-1), No. 5 Crudo (15-1) and No. 4 Uncaged (30-1). Journalism, who was favorited in the Derby and the Preakness and at the moment is the top 3-year-old in the country, looks like the horse to beat. 'Saratoga is very good for horses,' McCarthy said. 'He seems a little bit re-energized up here. We're looking for a wonderful renewal of the Belmont here on Saturday.' ___ AP horse racing:
Boston Globe
17-05-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
Stop the presses! Journalism wins Preakness two weeks after finishing second in Kentucky Derby
Journalism thrived on a warm day that dried out the track after torrential rain fell at Pimlico Race Course for much of the past week. Those conditions suited him better than the slop at Churchill Downs in the Derby. Advertisement Sovereignty did not take part after his owners and trainer Bill Mott decided to skip the Preakness, citing the two-week turnaround, and aim for the Belmont on June 7. That made this a fifth time in seven years that the Preakness, for various reasons, was contested without a Triple Crown bid at stake.
