Latest news with #Bolinjkar
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Expert view: Can Nifty 50 surpass 26k in June? 5 stocks to buy for next 1 year and more
Expert view on markets: Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities, says India's healthy economic growth, robust corporate earnings and steady inflows from domestic institutional investors have supported the Indian stock market. He, however, is cautiously optimistic about the domestic market for June 2025. In an interview with Mint, Bolinjkar shares his views on markets, key triggers and five stocks to buy for the next one year. Here are edited excerpts of the interview: The Nifty 50 is demonstrating notable resilience, having recently surpassed the significant 25,000 mark in late May 2025. This strength is underpinned by several positive domestic factors: India's healthy macroeconomic indicators, robust corporate earnings from the recent quarter showing continued momentum, and steady inflows from domestic institutional investors. Further bolstering sentiment, the RBI announced a substantial record dividend of ₹ 2.69 lakh crore to the government in May 2025, and the monsoon season has commenced, reportedly on an early to normal schedule according to IMD. Looking towards June 2025, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. While the market digests recent gains, further upward movement towards the 26,000 level would be a significant next step. The Indian equity market enjoys several structural tailwinds. These include strong GDP growth, stable fiscal and external accounts, buoyant high-frequency indicators like GST collections and PMI, and strong domestic liquidity from mutual fund SIPs. Additionally, the government's capex push and formalisation of the economy continue to support long-term growth. However, there are notable headwinds, too—elevated valuations, especially in mid- and small caps, pose risks of correction. Global concerns like US inflation, uncertainty around rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions can also trigger volatility. Furthermore, rural consumption remains under pressure due to weather uncertainty and high food inflation, which could weigh on consumption-driven sectors. Lastly, election-related volatility could lead to short-term swings in sentiment. The recent rally in mid and small-cap stocks has been significantly supported by retail and HNI participation, evident from surging volumes and mutual fund inflows into small-cap schemes. However, it is not just retail froth—there is genuine earnings growth in many companies, especially those linked to manufacturing, defence, railways, and infrastructure. Several promoters have increased their stakes, suggesting long-term confidence. That said, valuations in many pockets are rich and call for careful stock selection. While the broader index might seem expensive, opportunities still exist in under-researched companies with strong balance sheets, good governance, and clear earnings visibility. Investors must stay selective and avoid chasing momentum blindly. Q4 earnings were largely in line with street expectations, but there were positive surprises in some pockets. Banks and NBFCs continued their strong performance with healthy loan growth, stable asset quality, and robust NIMs. Capital goods and industrial companies reported strong order books and execution, while the auto sector delivered margin improvement, aided by lower input costs. On the flip side, IT services disappointed due to weak discretionary tech spending and delays in deal ramp-ups. Consumer staples saw sluggish rural demand, and some cement players struggled with weak pricing trends in certain regions. Among PSUs, select companies like NTPC, BEL, and BHEL surprised positively, triggering earnings upgrades and valuation re-ratings. Overall, earnings growth remains broad-based, with cyclicals and investment-driven themes outperforming. Yes, India's long-term structural growth story remains compelling and globally attractive. Driven by a young population, rapid digital adoption, formalisation of the economy, and a shift in global supply chains towards India (China+1, Europe+1 strategies), the country is well-positioned to sustain 6–7 %+ real GDP growth. The government's continued thrust on infrastructure, PLI-linked manufacturing, and digital financial inclusion is a further enabler. Investors looking at long-term themes can participate through sectors such as private banking, capital goods, real estate, renewables, and defence. Additionally, focused bets in mid and small-cap companies with niche capabilities can generate alpha. Building a diversified portfolio across these structural themes, with a three to five-year view, remains an attractive investment strategy. HBL Engineering is gaining traction in defence electronics and railway safety systems, benefiting from India's infrastructure and indigenous defence push. Strong order visibility, operating leverage, and niche capabilities support earnings growth. Thomas Cook is benefiting from a rebound in outbound travel and a strong recovery in MICE and forex services. Operational efficiency and a strong brand recall offer room for margin expansion and earnings growth. Adani Green is a leader in renewable energy with strong capacity expansion and long-term PPAs ensuring cash flow visibility. Deleveraging efforts and India's clean energy focus make it a structural long-term play. Welspun Living is witnessing export recovery and expanding in domestic branded home textiles. Easing raw material costs and diversification into newer geographies support earnings and margin improvement. India's largest private bank, HDFC Bank, remains a core holding with a strong deposit franchise, superior asset quality, and rising traction from its merger with HDFC Ltd. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
Economic Times
13-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty's 2025 twist: Are Indian stocks headed for another record-breaking year?
Geopolitical easing and trade advancements Live Events Trade agreements and global tailwinds Better corporate earnings Valuations: A mixed view Good monsoon is good news What lies ahead? (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel At the start of 2025, the Indian equity markets faced a clouded outlook. Concerns over high valuations, persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, trade wars painted a cautious picture. Then came the India Pakistan tensions, which went out of control for a brief period. However, as we approach mid-year, a confluence of positive developments has shifted the narrative, prompting once gloomy analysts to reassess their projections for investor Nifty has surged almost 17% from the lows, setting the stage for another recording breaking year, according to analysts.A significant turning point was the de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, culminating in a ceasefire agreement. This move alleviated investor concerns about regional Shah, VP – Institutional Sales, PL Capital, emphasized that the ceasefire restored stability to a region known for its geopolitical volatility. 'Investors were quick to price in the positive development, triggering a strong rally,' she the environment has also turned favorable. The United States has made significant headway in trade negotiations with major partners, including China, the UK, and the European Union. The recently signed India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is expected to benefit sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, and automotive deal eliminates tariffs on 99% of Indian exports to the UK, benefiting sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, and automotive components. In return, India has reduced tariffs on UK exports, including scotch whisky, cosmetics, and medical Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura , pointed out that such trade deals have not only improved global sentiment but also driven FII inflows into Indian geopolitics and global trade, domestic fundamentals have been another pillar of support. Corporate earnings for the fourth quarter have surpassed expectations. According to Siddhartha Khemka, profits of 27 Nifty companies grew by 4% year-on-year (YoY), beating the estimated 2% growth. Among 109 Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL)-covered companies, earnings rose by 6% against an expected decline of 2%.Sectors such as metals, technology, BFSI, and oil and gas led the earnings growth. Metal companies posted a 67% YoY profit surge on a low base, while oil marketing companies (OMCs) delivered a 14% profit growth, defying expectations of a are mixed on Nifty's valuations. While for some, they remain relatively comfortable, others still point to the expensive nature. It is currently trading at 21.6x FY26 P/E, just 5% above its 10-year average of Bolinjkar from Ventura said that while valuations are on the higher side, they are not overly stretched. 'The trend may remain bullish, but intermittent corrections can't be ruled out,' he Shah of PL Capital also mentioned that although valuations have improved, they still have room to go higher. 'With improving macros from both domestic and global perspectives, large-cap stocks are well-positioned to outperform,' she the domestic front, favorable monsoon predictions have further improved the outlook. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-average rainfall, which, combined with recent tax benefits, is likely to boost rural consumption. This could provide a further push to sectors like consumer goods, automobiles, and retail, which are highly sensitive to rural Matlawala, Senior Fundamental Analyst at SSJ Finance & Securities, believes that India's strong structural growth story remains intact. 'While Nifty's valuations are not very cheap compared to other emerging markets, India's growth prospects are significantly stronger,' he the geopolitical overhang easing, improving corporate earnings outlook, and supportive global trade developments, the outlook for Nifty has improved significantly from the start of the now expect moderate to strong gains for the rest of 2025, with key triggers including the continuation of FII inflows, sustained corporate earnings growth , and stable global economic conditions. FIIs have also returned as net buyers, injecting over Rs 14,000 crore into Indian markets since the beginning of the month. This reversal of FII flows will be a critical driver of the Nifty rally, which had been under pressure due to sustained outflows earlier in the year."The return of FII flows has been a game changer, but this liquidity-driven rally needs earnings to keep pace. Investors should focus on quality stocks rather than chasing momentum," Narendra Solanki, Head of Fundamental Research at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said."Nifty is well-positioned to deliver healthy returns, even breach highs, through the rest of the year, especially if earnings recovery sustains and global economic risks are contained," Khemka said."There is a reasonable likelihood of a positive Nifty return for the year. One cannot predict geopolitical events in the future and there is a reasonable likelihood that the recent hotspots which are seemingly cooling down might not flareup again," said Vikas Gupta, CEO & Chief Investment Strategist at OmniScience there are cautionary notes. While valuations are not excessively high, they are not cheap either. The possibility of intermittent corrections cannot be ruled out, especially if global risk factors re-emerge.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Mint
07-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Operation Sindoor: What's next for Indian defence stocks?
The defence sector has come into sharp focus following India's retaliatory attacks targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir early Wednesday. As during any crossborder conflict, the escalating tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours are expected to boost earnings for domestic defence companies. A strong and resilient export outlook further strengthens the sector's prospects, said experts. Since the terror attack on tourists in Kashmir's Pahalgam area on 22 April, the Nifty Defence index has increased 2.99%, significantly outperforming the Nifty 50 , which has gained 1.2% over the same period. Following India's attacks on Wednesday, codenamed ' Operation Sindoor ', the Nifty 50 and Sensex held strong despite early jitters , ending the day's trading session in the green. Among domestic defence-related companies, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd has gained 3.88% over the past fortnight, Bharat Dynamics Ltd has gained 1.85%, and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd, 2.33%. Vikas Gupta, chief executive officer and chief investment strategist at OmniScience Capital, said the prospect of retaliatory action by Indian armed forces following the Pahalgam terror attack had intensified focus on the defence sector, with the defence ministry prioritising faster execution of projects. While the order books of defence companies are large, spanning five-seven years, execution lagged, he said. 'Now, there is pressure to execute orders quicker, possibly within three years instead of five. This could accelerate revenue and earnings… If that happens, analysts could upgrade their projections for defence companies," said Gupta. A key growth trigger for India's defense sector was US President Donald Trump calling on Nato members to spend 5% of their GDP on defence. While India is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 'less-developed countries are turning to affordable Indian weapons systems, boosting the prospects for India's export", Gupta added. Also read | Operation Sindoor: Tensions spark worry over kharif sowing in border states Export opportunities for Indian defence manufacturers are significant as the global defence stockpile is at a 10-year low, said Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura Securities, adding that only a few countries were shipping defence products. 'Russia is restricted in its export capabilities because any country buying from it risks sanctions from the US. Similarly, Israel, which is constantly engaged in conflict, has depleted its stockpile and cannot afford to export," Bolinjkar said. France is known more for its specialized, high-end defense equipment such as submarines and fighter jets, and not for conventional or cost-effective arms. In this scenario, India is well-positioned to fill the gap, especially in the segment of affordable, conventional defence equipment, Bolinjkar said. Within India's defence sector, sub-sectors such as aerospace and shipbuilding show significant potential, said experts. Anirudh Garg, partner and fund manager at Invasset PMS, said the collaboration between Tata Advanced Systems Ltd and Airbus SE for the first military aircraft to be built in India highlighted the long-term growth prospects of the domestic defence sector. 'The private defence sector is another area gaining momentum, with companies such as Adani Defence & Aerospace making headway in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), missiles, and ammunition," Garg said. Also read | Govt may invoke ESMA to curb hoarding, ensure steady supplies post Operation Sindoormark Gupta of OmniScience Capital recommended that instead of betting on pure-play arms and ammunition companies, investors should look at companies that have an indirect exposure to the defence sector, such as those involved in critical minerals, cybersecurity, and drones. NMDC Ltd, Coal India Ltd, and Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd operate in the critical minerals segment. 'During a war, the priority often shifts from acquiring new platforms or systems to maximizing the operational capacity of the existing ones. For example, instead of placing new orders for an aircraft, the focus would be on ensuring that the existing aircraft are already in service are fully operational," Gupta said. This leads to increased demand for maintenance, repairs, and upgrades, rather than new purchases. Also, if the India-Pakistan conflict escalates into a full-blown war, companies involved in producing consumables, such as Solar Industries India Ltd and Bharat Dynamics Ltd, are likely to see more opportunities as demand for consumables increase, Gupta said.
New Indian Express
25-04-2025
- Business
- New Indian Express
War jitters roil markets, Sensex crashes 589 points as India-Pakistan tensions escalate
In a highly volatile session, India's equity markets closed lower on Friday as investor sentiment turned cautious amid escalating tensions between India and Pakistan following the deadly terror attack in Kashmir. Profit-booking added to the pressure after a sharp rally in recent sessions. The benchmark index BSE Sensex was down 588.90 points or 0.74% at 79,212.53, and the NSE Nifty was down 207.35 points or 0.86% at 24,039.35. Broader indices underperformed with BSE midcap and smallcap indices falling 2.5% each. Benchmarks opened higher but plummeted sharply in early trade, with the Sensex crashing 1,200 points to an intraday low of 78,606 and the Nifty50 tumbling nearly 400 points to 23,848. Market volatility spiked, with India's fear gauge (VIX) surging 6% on Friday Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura, said Pakistan's statement that any interference with the Indus Waters Treaty would be considered an "act of war" has significantly amplified investor concerns, especially in the wake of the Pahalgam incident and India's response. 'This rapid decline in bilateral relations, stemming from the attack, India's retaliatory actions (including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and downgrading diplomatic ties), and Pakistan's reaction, has spurred widespread selling pressure as the potential for a larger regional conflict becomes a growing worry. The increasing India VIX reflects this heightened anxiety and the market's expectation of further negative developments in the India-Pakistan relationship following the Pahalgam attack and India's subsequent steps,' stated Bolinjkar. Among the sectoral indices, the IT sector showed strength. Most other sectors traded with a negative bias, with Realty, Healthcare & Pharma, Energy, and Metals emerging as the major laggards. Anand K. Rathi, Co-Founder of MIRA Money, said the recent run up from the bottom was impressive, and many investors are likely looking to book profits, especially considering that Indian markets have outperformed despite global volatility. He added that while no one wants a war, the uncertainty surrounding the situation raises worries about potential conflict. 'Historical precedents, such as during the Kargil War when the markets dropped by 15% in a short period, highlight how geopolitical tensions can lead investors to exit equity markets. Although we are not experiencing a decline of that magnitude now, the increasing tensions have created an opportunity for investors to pull out of the equity market, which is contributing to the current downturn,' stated Rathi. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, said that mid and small-cap stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off, driven by their elevated valuations and growing concerns over potential earnings downgrades following a muted start to the earnings season. 'The risk of the correction continuing in the near term is evident as investors adopt a wait-and-watch stance. However, it is a good time for persistent investors to dip into it, given the resilient nature of the Indian stock market during external & geopolitical volatility,' added Nair.
