13 hours ago
Why Jase Richardson Is The Most Underrated Player In The 2025 Draft
Jase Richardson, Michigan State Spartans.
The human mind is a beautiful thing. It has enabled significant advancements in the fields of art, science, and technology. Heck, it is even the reason we have sports.
However, it isn't without its weaknesses, and one of the biggest mental tricks our brain plays on us is the curse of recency bias. For those wondering, recency bias "is the tendency to vividly remember recent events more than earlier ones, impacting judgment and decision-making."
In the case of the 2025 NBA Draft, this phenomenon has taken form with the perceived stock of Jase Richardson. Despite playing at Michigan State – a school notorious for being unforgiving toward freshmen – Richardson was one of the most productive players in the country. Richardson finished first in true shooting (62.4%) in the Big Ten among all first-year collegiate players (per KenPom), and he was one of just two freshmen in the entire country to finish with a Box Plus-Minus of 10 or higher (the other being the presumptive first overall pick).
Yet, because he will roster 6'2 instead of 6'3 (with a 6'6 wingspan and 38-inch vertical, mind you), people are forgetting about the mind-blowing numbers he put up as a freshman this year – the kind that we normally see from top ten picks (more on this later).
This logical fallacy has caused us to forget about a man who – in the biggest game of his career at the time – dropped 20 points on 94% TS against Ole Miss in the Sweet 16. The player who scored 29 points on 85.5% TS in his first career start. The only freshman to even come close to Cooper Flagg's production this season.
But we can't let our natural instinct as humans fool us. Richardson is one of the best players in this class, and history tells us that he is destined for a long and prosperous NBA career.
Jase Richardson Is A Two-Way Stud
As many of you are well aware, Richardson is the son of former 13-year NBA veteran Jason Richardson. His father (an ardent supporter and mentor of Jase's career) was an excellent slasher and scorer, but he came up in an era where efficiency wasn't really prioritized. For his career, the elder Richardson averaged 52.8% TS.
That is part of what makes young Richardson so fascinating. The dude can get a bucket – his And1 Mixtape is second to none – but he also hardly ever takes a bad shot. One scout once described him to me as an "analytic nerd's dream."
This brings us to the other superhero in Richardson's life – his mother, Jackie Paul-Richardson. Like her husband, Paul-Richarson was a baller, playing her collegiate hoops at the University of Colorado, Colorado Springs. Paul-Richardson also served as Richardson's coach from the age of four up until high school, instilling in him the ability to value every single possession and to always search for the best possible shot.
'I think it goes back to my mom coaching me," Richardson told me in an interview for Forbes. 'She taught me that being efficient is a great way to stand out. She taught me how to make sure I'm taking the right shot for my team or to make sure I'm passing up good looks for great ones. Things like that. So, for me, I've kind of just always had that mindset where, whatever minutes I'm playing, I'm gonna try to be as efficient as possible and try to get as much done as I can in that time.'
It was this mindset that allowed Richardson to go from being a freshman coming off the bench to the Spartans' go-to scorer down the stretch of the season. As a starter (15 games), Richardson averaged 16.1 PPG on 61.8% TS. But it wasn't just his raw numbers that earned him the trust of legendary coach Tom Izzo. It was his maturity and poise.
'I didn't come to Michigan State with the idea of being a one-and-done player," Richardson revealed to me. 'At first, I was just grateful to be playing as a freshman under Izzo. But as the season went on, I kind of just felt the trust of him and my teammates keep going up. When that happened, it became a possibility. I was like, 'Hey, I could really, I could really do this.' And then, I had to talk with Coach, and he kind of just agreed. He was like, 'Yeah, I can't see you staying here one more year. You need to go.' So, I think that was really like the main thing that told me, 'Yeah, I think I'm ready to do this.' '
Despite only staying for a year, Richardson was very pleased with his decision to follow in his father's footsteps. The only part of his tenure at Michigan State that could cast aspirations on his capabilities as a player was the position he played. Due to the Spartans being a guard-centric team, Richardson logged most of his minutes at shooting guard. This may lead some teams to wonder if Richardson can't handle a role as a primary creator, but make no mistake, he is ready for the challenge.
When you watch Richardson closely on film, you see a natural decision-maker, and the numbers back it up, too. Last season, he was in the 92nd percentile in assist-to-turnover ratio.
"My mom was a point guard when she played. So, she made sure I was taught all the fundamentals of the game," Richardson explained. 'Growing up, I was always a point guard. I think Michigan State was really the first year I started playing off the ball. I think I'm more of a lead guard in the NBA."
'Being a lead guard, it's all about reading the floor and making the right decision based on what the defense is doing. To do that, you need to watch a lot of film. I was always a good film watcher, but I became a great one at Michigan State. That's one of the biggest things Coach Izzo taught me during our time together. Once I entered the starting lineup, he and I would do a film session together at least once a week, and that gave me a whole different perspective on everything.'
Today's players are more skilled than ever. Even Richardson will tell you that there are a lot of like-sized guards who are capable of producing offense for themselves and their teammates. However, most players in his archetype come with the drawback of being vulnerable defenders. They are often the weak link in any lineup they play in. But not Richardson. At Michigan State (the number four defense in the nation last year), you don't get to play if you aren't a good defender.
"Defense is the only way you are going to stay on the floor," Richardson emphasized. "You have to hit shots and defend."
'Because I was playing shooting guard, there were nights where my primary matchup would be 6'7 or 6'8. In those instances, my goal was to be as physical and aggressive as possible. I had to show them that I could defend and that there would not be any easy buckets on me.'
What Richardson was getting at with the quote above was how he was often tasked with guarding guys who were taller than the ones he will likely see at the NBA level. Clearly, Richardson proved ready for the job (again, they were the fourth-ranked defense in the nation).
History Says Jase Richardson Is A Sure Thing
The oddest part about this case of recency bias is that any concerns about Richardson can be resolved with just a little bit of research. Over the years, Bart Torvik queries have become a bit of a running joke because, with the right parameters, any prospect can be made to look like a future star.
But in certain situations, they can be very insightful. Richardson is one of those examples. If you look at every college rookie who has ever scored a BPM of 10 or higher (minimum 15 games played), you will find 24 such occurrences (one of which being Richardson) since 2008. All of those players – except Sam Dekker (18th overall) and Robbie John Hummel (58th) – were or will be (in Flagg's case) a top 10 pick. That list includes two former MVPs (Joel Embiid and James Harden) and eight other All-Star/All-NBA players.
Even more impressive, only six other guards have ever managed this feat. Here are those players.
Harden – a southpaw like Richardson – is a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer. Trae Young (another player who received criticism during the pre-draft process for his smaller stature) will likely join him after a few more high-level seasons. D'Angelo Russell (another lefty) has an All-Star nomination under his belt. Marcus Smart was one of the best two-way role players in the league during his prime, and Lonzo Ball was trending in that direction before a catastrophic knee injury derailed his career (and even then, he's still pretty good). Reed Sheppard's story is still yet to be written, but many analysts believed at the time that he was the best prospect in the 2024 Class.
If that doesn't tell you that Richardson is the closest you can get to a sure thing in this group, then I don't know what will.
At the very least, Richardson deserves more benefit of the doubt. If you're an NBA general manager and you're reading this, do yourself a favor and don't fall for recency bias. Go ahead and draft the most underrated player in this year's class.
