Latest news with #Brandolino
Otago Daily Times
01-06-2025
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
A warmer winter is on its way
Electricity bills may deliver less of a hammering this winter if Niwa's outlook for the next few months comes to fruition. It shows temperatures from June to August are "very likely" to be warmer than average this winter, meaning fewer cold snaps and frosts than usual. Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said El Nino Southern Oscillation (Enso) conditions in the tropical Pacific remained neutral at present, but there were "residual signals" that indicated weak La Nina conditions were persisting. Occasional La Nina-like atmospheric patterns might still emerge over the next three months, he said. "However, international guidance indicates about a 70% chance for the tropical Pacific to remain in an Enso-neutral state over the next three-month period." He said higher-than-normal atmospheric pressure was expected to the east of the country, leading to northeasterly flow anomalies that might shift to a more northwesterly direction towards the end of the three-month period. That means seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all New Zealand regions for the winter season. "While cold snaps and frosts will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual." On the West Coast, Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, and Southland, temperatures were very likely to be above average, he said. Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal. Temperatures were also very likely to be above average along coastal Otago, he said. "Rainfall totals are most likely to be in the near normal range, and soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal." Mr Brandolino said for the remainder of the calendar year, Enso-neutral conditions were expected to persist. "The guidance available, however, suggests the possibility for La Nina conditions to return by summer 2025-2026." La Nina can bring more northeasterly winds to New Zealand, leading to drier conditions in the south and southwest of the South Island.
1News
30-05-2025
- Climate
- 1News
Above average temps expected during winter
New Zealand can expect "above average temperatures" and "less frequent" cold snaps across all regions this winter, according to NIWA's seasonal climate outlook. The outlook released today, which covers June to August 2025 said: "Seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all New Zealand regions for this winter season." "Thus, while cold snaps and frost will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual." NIWA principal scientist Chris Brandolino said rainfall totals during the three months ahead were expected to be "above normal for the north of the North Island and near normal for the east of the South Island". "For all remaining regions of the country, rainfall is forecast to be near normal or above normal," he said. ADVERTISEMENT NIWA's graphical representation of the regional probabilities. (Source: NIWA) Brandolino also said the east of the country could expect "higher than normal atmospheric pressure". "Leading to north-easterly flow anomalies that may shift to a more north-westerly direction towards the end of the three-month period. See 1News weather expert Daniel Corbett's explanation of the weather we can expect to see over the next few months on and TVNZ+ on Sunday - the first day of winter. "Low pressure systems forming north of the country are still expected to affect New Zealand and may lead to heightened risks for heavy rainfall events," he said. A wet Autumn day in Auckland City, New Zealand. (Source: Also during this period, near normal soil moisture levels and river flows are expected for all regions of the North Island, while near normal or above normal soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast for the South Island.
Otago Daily Times
02-05-2025
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
Above average temperatures predicted for winter with less snow on the slopes
While many southerners may be rubbing their hands together with glee at news that temperatures are "very likely" to be warmer than average over the next three months, others — namely skiers and snowboarders — may not be so pleased. Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said weather patterns were in an Enso-neutral state, where neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions were present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. That meant there would be fewer cooler winds from the south-to-southwest, and more warmer north-to-northwest winds. He said the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures around the country at present, would contribute to that. "That's important because as an island nation, basically, if our ocean temperatures are running warmer than average, it's really difficult to get any sustained cold snaps. "Cold snaps can happen, but it makes it a lot more difficult." On the West Coast, the Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, and Southland, temperatures were "very likely" to be above average over the next three months, he said. Rainfall totals and soil moisture levels were about equally likely to be near normal or below normal, and river flows were most likely to be near normal. In coastal Otago, temperatures were likely to be above average. Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows were about equally likely to be near normal or above normal along the coast. "I think people will probably notice that it's warmer than it should be in June, or it's warmer than it should be in July — that sort of thing. "It doesn't mean it will be warmer every day. "I think a factor in that is the overnight temperatures may be a little bit warmer than usual." Mr Brandolino said an impact of the warmer airflows was there would be fewer frosts and less snow on the skifields. "It probably doesn't bode well for skiers and snowboarders. "As you go toward Queenstown and as you go toward the Main Divide itself and the western part of the South Island, there is a dry lean. "So between the potential of a reduction of precipitation and the warmer-than-average temperatures, I think the odds of a really good snow year probably seems more unlikely, than likely." The upside was lower power bills, he said. "Maybe people will be able to run their heaters a bit less, or maybe less frequently."
