Latest news with #BrendonBernard
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's youth hammered as unemployment rate reaches 9-year high
Indeed's senior economist Brendon Bernard says Canadian youth are disproportionately impacted by the general downward trend in both the economy and employment rate, because the youth population is growing while the job market is shrinking.
Hamilton Spectator
20-05-2025
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
Young people struggling to land summer jobs amid toughest labour market in decades
Canadian summer job postings have significantly dropped since last year — one of many signs that youth are currently grappling with the toughest labour market in decades . Summer job advertisements on employment search engine Indeed were down 22 per cent in early May versus the same time a year ago, according to an analysis published last Thursday by Indeed economist Brendon Bernard. Lower demand for camp counselors drove the decline in postings. But seasonal demand for other kinds of jobs, including painters, lifeguards and instructors, also dropped. These findings build on recent economic data showing that younger Canadians are struggling more than others to secure employment as the economic outlook deteriorates and businesses freeze hiring amid U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war. At stake is the future financial success of a generation, as studies have shown employed youth tend to have better earnings outcomes as adults. 'While unemployment has trended up among both groups, the gap between youth and others has widened,' said Bernard. In April, the unemployment rate for those aged between 15 to 24 years old was 14.1 per cent compared to 5.7 per cent for older adults, according to Statistics Canada. Two years earlier, those rates were 9.8 per cent, and 4.3 per cent, respectively. Among recent post-secondary and university graduates, the unemployment rate averaged 11.2 per cent in the first three months of 2025 — the highest for this period (outside of the pandemic) in more than two decades, according to Bernard's analysis. 'When the job market slows down, there's this congestion that builds up,' explained Bernard. 'Kind of like a traffic jam, when people further on (in their careers) are finding it tougher to get ahead, then they might find work in a lower-paying job that they're not particularly excited about, and that causes challenges for younger people,' he continued. 'To get out of that cycle, we really need the economy to turn around and to get things on the right track again.' But, with Trump's trade war remaining on the horizon most employers won't be eager to hire anytime soon, economists say. 'The pause in Canada's counter-tariffs, relaxed U.S. tariffs on auto parts imports, and new fiscal stimulus will soften the downturn from the trade war, but likely won't prevent a recession,' said economists Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport in a report published by Oxford Economics last week . Stillo and Davenport are expecting the Canadian economy to shed 120,000 jobs by the end of 2025, bringing the overall unemployment rate to 7.4 per cent from the current 6.9 per cent . What's more, contributing to high levels of youth unemployment is the fact that youth population soared beyond the number of jobs available in recent years, partly due to immigration. 'There's little sign of a turnaround going into this summer,' Bernard wrote in his analysis. 'While youth population growth has slowed, it was still up 3.7 per cent from a year ago.' GTA-based employment services charity ACCES Employment has seen a steady demand from younger people struggling to find seasonal and part-time work. Manjeet Dhiman, senior vice president of services and strategic initiatives at ACCES, says employers are still hiring for the summer, but at smaller volumes, and they aren't having trouble filling roles anymore. 'In a competitive market, it becomes easier for employers to hire people who they know and who did a good job last year, which just makes it more difficult for the individuals who are still trying to break into the labour market,' she told the Star. Teens and young adults rely on summer jobs not only for financial support, but to develop key practical and life skills that help professional growth. According to a 2024 report by the Office of the Auditor General of Canada , youth who participated in the government's Canada Summer Jobs program had better long-term earnings than those who did not participate. Dhiman is concerned that the tough job market for youth is intensifying economic barriers facing marginalized groups. 'The people who end up struggling the most are often individuals who are already marginalized, maybe in terms their economic background, their race, or gender,' said Dhiman. 'All of these factors can make it even that much more difficult to find work in an economy that's already very competitive.'
Globe and Mail
15-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
The summer job market is getting trounced
Young Canadians have suffered the most in a weakening labour market – and the outlook doesn't look great, either. As of early May, summer job postings on Indeed Canada were down 22 per cent from last year, according to a new report from the job-search site. The decline is being driven by summer camp roles, which have tumbled by 32 per cent. As part of its analysis, Indeed tallied job postings with 'summer' (or in French, 'été') in the title, which included everything from camp counsellors to lifeguards and painters. Summer job postings typically peak from mid-April to mid-May, so the weak trend this year bodes poorly for the warmer months to come. 'The dip in job postings comes at a time when growth in youth employment has fallen far short of rapid population growth over the past two years, suggesting 2025 could be another difficult summer for seasonal job seekers,' wrote senior economist Brendon Bernard in the report. The youth unemployment rate (for those aged 15 to 24) hit 14.1 per cent in April, steadily rising from a low of 9 per cent in the summer of 2022. Higher interest rates, meant to curb inflation, have weighed on economic growth and job creation, while strong immigration has led to an influx of job seekers. Now, the U.S.-driven trade war is forcing some families to tighten their budgets and companies to scale back their hiring plans. 'With other risks to the Canadian labour market looming, there are few signs of near-term turnaround amid what's already a troubled job market for youth,' Mr. Bernard wrote. Decoder is a weekly feature that unpacks an important economic chart.
Global News
09-05-2025
- Business
- Global News
Rising unemployment a ‘harsh reality' of the trade war, experts say
Canada's job market continues to show signs of weakness, according to the latest report from Statistics Canada, and experts say this shows how much the trade war is negatively impacting our economy, as well as the ability for households to afford the cost of living. This was especially the case in Ontario, which saw tens of thousands of jobs lost and unemployment spike in the province to well above the national average. 'The April Labour Force Survey showed the first direct hit from the trade war after several months of anticipation,' says economist Brendon Bernard at Indeed. The overall unemployment rate in Canada increased to 6.9 per cent last month from 6.7 per cent in March, and although there were 7,400 net new jobs added (meaning the number of new jobs minus the amount of jobs lost), Statistics Canada considers that result to be practically no growth at all, or zero per cent. Story continues below advertisement Canadians have been growing more concerned about job losses in recent months as businesses signalled tariffs would mean scaling back hiring plans. This also comes as many Canadians continue to struggle with the cost of living and are very close to being, or are already in financial debt. 'April's report indicates that the rumoured layoffs in response to the trade war have transitioned from worrisome headlines to harsh reality,' says financial expert Shannon Terrell at NerdWallet, adding that when it comes to the cost of living, 'Canadian households should buckle up — the ride ahead could get bumpy.' 1:59 Bank of Canada calls U.S. trade war the 'greatest threat' to Canada's economy U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs sparked a trade war, which has long been expected to impact economies worldwide, including in Canada, as many businesses lay off workers to reduce costs. Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy 'Canada's labour market enters the fog of trade war on weaker ground,' says economist Andrew DiCapua at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Story continues below advertisement 'The goods-producing sectors lost 33,000 jobs in April — the third straight monthly decline — with Ontario's manufacturing sector hit hardest.' 2:01 Tariffs, fiscal stimulus to shape Canada's economic outlook April featured the federal election, and there were thousands of temporary positions added to the workforce to help with the voting process, which economists note as something hiding the underlying trend. 'Employment would have fallen by 30,000 (jobs) in April had it not been a surge in public admin jobs thanks in part to temporary election hiring,' says economist Claire Fan at the Royal Bank of Canada. When factoring out the election, this report shows a net loss of roughly another 30,000 jobs and follows a loss of 33,000 reported for March. 'April's report indicates that the rumoured layoffs in response to the trade war have transitioned from worrisome headlines to harsh reality,' says financial expert Shannon Terrell at NerdWallet, and when it comes to the cost of living she adds, 'Canadian households should buckle up — the ride ahead could get bumpy.' Story continues below advertisement 4:53 Former Canadian diplomat on Carney-Trump White House meeting Ontario led the job losses with 35,000 in April, mostly in manufacturing, and more than 60,000 lost in total since February. The province's unemployment rate also increased in April from 7.5 to 7.8 per cent — nearly a full per cent higher than the current national average of 6.9 per cent. 'Ontario experienced substantial employment losses, and within the province, unemployment was up notably in the highly U.S.-integrated Windsor area,' says Bernard, adding, 'It's already been a challenge for many groups of job seekers, particularly youth, but further deterioration would mean the pain will start spreading.' On the flip side, there were some signs of strength in the labour market for other provinces including Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Prince Edward Island, which saw unemployment rates improve the most last month by falling 0.6, 0.7 and 0.9 per cent, respectively. Beyond the top job growth sector last month, that being public administration tied to the federal election, other areas of improvement included finance, real estate, culture and recreation, as well as transportation, logistics and storage. Story continues below advertisement 2:00 Business Matters: U.S. trade deficit soared in March On top of the heightened risk of job loss and the financial challenges of not having a steady income, many Canadians are already having trouble making ends meet, including young people and senior citizens. 'All this is to say that there's room for a lot more (job) declines in the months ahead,' says Bernard. 'Unless the tariff situation is resolved.'
Time of India
05-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Once a haven for job seekers, Canada has now one of the worst job markets for graduates; what went wrong, and it could get worse?
C anada's New Graduates: Why 2025 Is the Hardest Time to Start a Career - The story of Canada's new graduates in 2025 is not the usual tale of excitement and opportunity. For thousands of young Canadians finishing school, this year's job market has become a harsh wake-up call. With unemployment for recent grads under 25 reaching 11.2% in the first quarter of 2025, many are entering what's now being called the toughest graduate job market in over two decades—excluding the pandemic. #Pahalgam Terrorist Attack Pakistan's economy has much more to lose than India's due to the ongoing tensions, warns Moody's Ratings The day Pakistan got the power to poke India India demands ADB to stop funds to Pakistan as fallout of Pahalgam terror attack deepens These numbers come from a Statistics Canada analysis shared by Brendon Bernard, a senior economist at Indeed Canada . And behind those numbers is a deeper problem: the combination of slow economic growth, interest rate effects, and now a U.S.-led trade war is creating a storm few graduates were prepared for. Why is Canada's job market so tough for young graduates right now? Over the past three years, Canada's economy has been under pressure. Much of this stems from the Bank of Canada's efforts to fight inflation by raising interest rates. While that helped cool inflation, it also slowed down hiring. The result? Fewer opportunities across the board, but especially for new grads. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Historic Figures Who Were Actually Photographed Novelodge Undo 'Youth have borne the brunt of Canada's weaker labour market in recent years,' said Brendon Bernard in an email. According to him, it's not just about fewer jobs—it's also about more young people entering the workforce. The population of Canadians aged 15 to 24 has grown significantly, meaning the job pool is more crowded than ever. Now, just as economists hoped for a rebound with interest rates beginning to fall, a new obstacle has appeared: trade tensions with the U.S. This trade war has made businesses hesitant to invest or hire, especially for entry-level roles that require more training and time. That's a major blow for young people just stepping into the job world. Live Events How does unemployment hit recent grads differently? Unemployment isn't just a number—it has long-term consequences, especially for those just starting out. Recent grads often rely on their first full-time roles to gain real-world experience, build connections, and launch their careers. Without that first step, it becomes harder to grow professionally and personally. Bernard highlights a worrying trend: 'This rapid deterioration is concerning, both for how the initial time just out of school is a high-stakes period for people's careers, and the fact that the uncertain economic outlook could further hit conditions as new cohorts of grads join the labour market.' Put simply, this moment matters. If young people are unable to find work soon after graduating, they risk falling behind permanently—missing out on income, experience, and confidence. Can things get worse before they get better? Sadly, the outlook remains uncertain. Even with interest rates now easing, the expected job market rebound hasn't materialized. Instead, the U.S.-driven trade war has brought new risks that could delay recovery. Businesses remain cautious. Many are either freezing hiring plans or cutting back investment altogether. This means that for the class of 2025—and possibly for those graduating in the next few years—the job hunt might stay tough. That's a difficult reality to face, but one that many grads are now forced to navigate. What can young Canadians do in the meantime? Despite the challenges, there are still ways for grads to move forward. It might take longer and involve more uncertainty, but here are some practical steps: Focus on building skills : Short online courses in digital tools, writing, analytics, or project management can help make your resume stronger. Network more than ever : Reach out to former professors, classmates, and professionals on platforms like LinkedIn. Most job leads still come through personal connections. Be open to temporary roles : Contract work, internships, or even part-time jobs can be stepping stones. The goal is to keep building experience, even if it's not your dream job. And perhaps most importantly—don't take the silence personally. If you've been applying and hearing nothing back, you're not alone. This isn't about your worth. It's about the system. The market is tough, but your efforts still matter. Why we need to pay attention to the story of new grads The story of Canada's new graduates in 2025 is more than just another economic headline. It reflects a generation stuck in limbo, ready to work but with fewer doors open. Ignoring this issue now could have long-term effects on our country's economy and workforce. As the months go on, employers, educators, and policymakers need to ask: what can we do to help these young people get a fair start? Because the longer this hiring freeze lasts, the more talent and potential we risk leaving behind. FAQs: Q1: Why are new graduates in Canada struggling to find jobs in 2025? Because of rising youth unemployment, fewer hiring opportunities, and economic uncertainty. Q2: What can Canadian grads do to improve their job chances? Learn new skills, network actively, and stay open to entry-level or short-term roles.
