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USA Today
3 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Big 12 football 2025 win-loss record predictions, per ESPN's FPI
Big 12 football 2025 win-loss record predictions, per ESPN's FPI The 2025 Big 12 football season continues to inch closer. Only 83 days remain until Colorado kicks off against Georgia Tech on Friday, August 29. Important offseason events continue to come and go as we get closer to the season. Over the past few weeks, ESPN released its power rating metrics, SP+ and Football Power Index. When those ratings receive updates after the spring, it means we have a good feeling for what each team will look like during the upcoming season. ESPN released its FPI for the 2025 season earlier this week. Within those ratings, we have conference championship chances and the likelihood that a team reaches six or more wins. As a reminder, here is how ESPN describes the methodology behind its Football Power Index: The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete. The ratings span the entire college football landscape, but you can also sort by specific conferences. In such a crowded Big 12, it is essential to focus on how the 16 teams stack up. With that in mind, here are ESPN's FPI's record predictions for every Big 12 football team in 2025, ordered from lowest to highest. They're also compared with our recent win-loss projections for each team after spring camp. Projected Win-Loss: 4.8-7.2 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 6-6 (3-6 Big 12) FPI Rating: -3.7 (No. 75 overall) Houston is one of the few teams where our prediction differs from FPI. The Cougars hold the easiest conference schedule in the Big 12 and the No. 15 easiest overall schedule. ESPN's FPI gives Houston a 34.8% chance to win six games, and I think they get there. 15. Arizona Wildcats Projected Win-Loss: 4.9-7.1 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12) FPI Rating: -1.0 (No. 69 overall) Arizona does not have high expectations going into 2025. Brent Brennan's team does have Noah Fifita under center, but other than him, the talent cabinet is bleak. 14. West Virginia Mountaineers Projected Win-Loss: 5.2-6.9 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12) FPI Rating: 0.5 (No. 66 overall) Rich Rodriguez is back in Morgantown, tasked with rebuilding the program. It won't be easy and 2025 should be viewed as a growth year. West Virginia is another team that I see falling short of its SP+ record projection. Projected Win-Loss: 5.5-6.6 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12) FPI Rating: 0.3 (No. 67 overall) Mike Gundy's team should be a lot better than they were last year when it finished last in the Big 12. The Cowboys might not be back to their elite ways, but they should be much improved. 12. Cincinnati Bearcats Projected Win-Loss: 6.4-5.7 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12) FPI Rating: 3.6 (No. 53 overall) Cincinnati is a difficult team to pin down heading into 2025. Will they improve from their 2024 5-7 record and make a bowl game, or take a step back? They have a few tossups, so anywhere around 6-6 sounds about right. 11. Utah Utes Projected Win-Loss: 6.4-5.6 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12) FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 46 overall) Utah, similar to Oklahoma State, should be a significantly better team than it was in 2024. FPI doesn't think the Utes will be dramatically better, but I see them finishing with a winning record in conference play. Projected Win-Loss: 6.5-5.5 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 6-6 (3-6 Big 12) FPI Rating: 4.2 (No. 49 overall) Colorado finishing above Utah would be a surprise, but FPI thinks it is possible. Deion Sanders' Buffaloes team will need to reshape their identity in 2025 with the departures of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. A 9-3 season is unlikely, but with a challenging schedule, becoming bowl-eligible should be considered a major win. 9. Iowa State Cyclones Projected Win-Loss: 6.7-5.4 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12) FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 45 overall) I don't see a significant regression from the Cyclones after a program-best 11-win season a year ago. They might not win 11 games again, but Iowa State should remain in the hunt and, at the very least, win seven games. 8. UCF Knights Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-4.9 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12) FPI Rating: 6.9 (No. 37 overall) I just don't see UCF being the eighth-best team in the Big 12. Scott Frost is retooling the roster, and the Knights lost their top player in running back RJ Harvey. Frost likely improves upon last season's 4-8 record, but I don't see them touching seven or eight wins. 7. TCU Horned Frogs Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-5.0 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12) FPI Rating: 8.2 (No. 32 overall) TCU could win 10 games, or they could win six. Right now, I have them right in the middle with eight projected victories. Of the teams with a better than 5% chance to win the conference, the Horned Frogs have the lowest chance (79.1%) to win six games. 6. Baylor Bears Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-5.0 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12) FPI Rating: 8.0 (No. 33 overall) Maybe I am too high on Baylor, predicting a 10-win regular season. But after they closed out the 2024 conference slate with six straight wins, there are more wins in the tank. If the Bears sweep their tough nonconference games against Auburn and SMU, then a full-on breakout is possible. Projected Win-Loss: 7.9-4.3 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12) FPI Rating: 8.4 (No. 30 overall) I am a big fan of the Jayhawks. Jalon Daniels is a talented quarterback who can win you a few games by himself. Lance Leipold's squad should be the most improved team in the conference. 4. Texas Tech Red Raiders Projected Win-Loss: 7.9-4.2 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12) FPI Rating: 7.4 (No. 35 overall) I think Texas Tech could win the Big 12 and more. They brought in the nation's No. 1 transfer portal class and have an experienced quarterback, Behren Morton, set to take another step forward. 3. BYU Cougars Projected Win-Loss: 8.0-4.2 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12) FPI Rating: 8.4 (No. 29 overall) The Big 12 becomes very crowded at the top with several teams projected around the same record. BYU is one of those teams, and they own a very manageable schedule. A three-game stretch against Utah, Iowa State and Texas Tech will determine if the Cougars play for the Big 12 title in December. 2. Arizona State Sun Devils Projected Win-Loss: 8.3-3.9 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12) FPI Rating: 9.5 (No. 24 overall) The Sun Devils won't fly under the radar anymore after winning the Big 12 in 2024. Sam Leavitt is a star at quarterback and Kenny Dillingham is an ascending young coach. The schedule is not too difficult, making another 10-win year within reach. Projected Win-Loss: 8.6-3.7 Buffaloes Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12) FPI Rating: 10.8 (No. 21 overall) The Big 12 title favorite according to FPI and a solid top 20 team in the country. Kansas State might have the best quarterback in the Big 12 (Avery Johnson) and head coach Chris Klieman, who seems to only win football games. That is a potent combination, making the Wildcats deserving to be talked about as the top team in the conference going into the season.
Yahoo
14-04-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Big 12 Spotlight: Biggest portal needs in the spring transfer window
© Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The spring transfer window opens on Wednesday and college coaches, GMs and player personnel departments have already been scouring rosters circling players they'd recruit if they decide to enter the transfer portal. Advertisement Today the spotlight shifts to the Big 12 as Rivals continues breaking down the portal priorities for each Power Four team. THIS SERIES: Biggest portal needs for Big Ten programs in the spring transfer window | Biggest SEC needs | Biggest ACC needs MORE BIG 12: Which teams should panic over slow start to recruiting the 2026 class? MORE TRANSFER PORTAL: Latest news | Transfer search | Transfer Team Ranking | Football Player Ranking ARIZONA Arizona and head coach Brent Brennan are working on bouncing back after a four-win season but they lost some of their best players to the portal after the season. The Wildcats have done a lot of work in the transfer portal already and they'll continue to be active this spring. Adding help at linebacker and along the offensive line are going to be their top priorities when the portal opens. Advertisement SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH ARIZONA FANS AT ARIZONA STATE The Sun Devils had a dream 2024 season but coach Kenny Dillingham and quarterback Sam Leavitt are hoping to make another run to the College Football Playoff this season. Arizona State brought in some important players earlier this transfer cycle but it'll look to continue adding players. The Sun Devils are expected to focus on the offensive side of the ball, with most of their work centering on wide receiver and offensive tackle. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH ARIZONA STATE FANS AT BAYLOR The Bears and head coach Dave Aranda are looking to build upon last year's solid eight-win season and they're hoping this transfer class is another step in the right direction. Baylor emphasized the defensive side of the ball during the winter transfer window but expect a more even spread this spring. Advertisement There is the potential for additions at running back and cornerback but Baylor is expected to at least kick the tires on players they feel can upgrade their roster, regardless of position. BYU BYU wasn't very active during the winter transfer window but there are some areas of its roster that could use some reinforcements. Don't rule out the Cougars adding help at cornerback and receiver. With just three quarterbacks on the roster, BYU is likely to add another arm to its roster. CINCINNATI The Bearcats ended last year on a five-game losing streak and head coach Scott Satterfield is entering his third season as head coach. Cincinnati was active during the winter transfer window and filled most of its needs. Advertisement The spring won't be as busy for the Bearcats but they're still likely to sign a few new players at offensive tackle, defensive line and linebacker. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH CINCINNATI FANS AT COLORADO Deion Sanders is famously active during the transfer portal windows and this year is no different. Colorado has added transfers at every position on its roster and more additions are expected in what should be a very active spring in Boulder. Despite recent additions at offensive line and receiver, both of those positions will see more movement. The secondary and linebacker positions will be an area of focus as well. Keep an eye on edge rushers who could help Colorado pressure the quarterback too. Advertisement SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH COLORADO FANS AT HOUSTON Last season was Willie Fritz's first at Houston and the Cougars have already made some big changes after posting just four wins. They've already signed transfers at every position and will continue to look to upgrade their roster this spring. There aren't one or two positions Houston will focus on but it will look to get more explosive on offense and more stout up front on defense. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH HOUSTON FANS AT IOWA STATE The Cyclones and head coach Matt Campbell posted an 11-win season last year and they're hoping this transfer class can help them improve and make the College Football Playoff this year. At this point the Iowa State roster is pretty full but that doesn't mean the spring portal window will be quiet in Ames. Advertisement Don't be surprised if the Cyclones try to bring in help along the offensive line as they try to make sure standout quarterback Rocco Becht remains upright this season. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH IOWA STATE FANS AT KANSAS Kansas brought in a deep group of transfers earlier this transfer cycle but the Jayhawks will still be active when the spring portal opens. The coaching staff has addressed every position on the field already except for quarterback. It wouldn't be totally far-fetched to see Kansas pursue a quarterback but look for more additions along the offensive and defensive lines. Advertisement SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH KANSAS FANS AT KANSAS STATE Head coach Chris Klieman and company addressed pretty much all of their top transfer needs earlier this transfer cycle. Kansas State may target another offensive lineman but for now don't expect much activity from the Wildcats this spring. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH KANSAS STATE FANS AT OKLAHOMA STATE The Cowboys and head coach Mike Gundy have a large transfer class already but they will still go after some players during the spring. Last week they signed running back Freddie Brock and receiver Cam Abshire and they are expected to continue to add pieces on the offensive side of the ball. Advertisement Receiver and offensive line are expected to be the positions of focus for Oklahoma State in the upcoming transfer window. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH OKLAHOMA STATE FANS AT TCU Head coach Sonny Dykes and TCU are coming off a strong nine-win season but there is room to improve ahead of the 2025 campaign. Getting more explosive on offense is a priority so look for the Horned Frogs to work on bringing in some help at receiver. Don't be surprised if TCU pursues a proven pass rusher as well. TEXAS TECH Texas Tech has proven to be a buyer when it comes to the transfer portal and it hasn't been overly picky about what position to target. The Red Raiders did a great job putting together a fantastic class of transfers already this cycle and they surely aren't done adding pieces. Advertisement Look for head coach Joey McGuire and company to spot recruit players who they think can elevate their roster, regardless of position. They were linked to former Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava over the weekend and pushing to get him is a possibility but not a very likely one. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH TEXAS TECH FANS AT UCF Scott Frost is back and is looking to return UCF to the heights the program reached during his first stint as head coach. The Knights did a lot of work in the portal earlier this year but there are still some positions they'll like to address. The offensive and defensive lines are surely two areas UCF will continue to work on and running is also a possibility. Advertisement SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH UCF FANS AT UTAH Utah has already put together a strong transfer class so far but the Utes aren't done adding players on both sides of the ball. The focus on offense will be adding playmakers to go with former New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier. Defensive tackle and cornerback will be where the majority of Utah's focus is this spring. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH UTAH FANS AT WEST VIRGINIA Head coach Rich Rodriguez and company are in the midst of overhauling the West Virginia roster. They took more than 30 transfers already this cycle and more are coming. Look for the Mountaineers to target more players at pretty much every position other than quarterback, with an emphasis on receivers and the offensive and defensive lines. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH WEST VIRGINIA FANS AT
