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Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Commodity Radar: Crude Oil caught between war winds and OPEC's supply surge. 3 things charts suggest
Crude oil prices traded steady on Wednesday as concerns over higher output from OPEC+ groups were partially offset by supply pressures caused due to the Canadian wildfires along with economic uncertainties in the wake of global trade tensions. The June crude oil futures on the MCX were trading at Rs 5,473 per Bbl, gaining Rs 18 or 0.33% over the previous closing price. Domestic prices moved in tandem with the international prices. On the COMEX, the US WTI contracts were trading at $63.71 around 4 PM India time, up by $0.30 or 0.47% while the Brent Oil futures were hovering around $65.93, also gaining by $0.30 or 0.46%. Commenting on the current trends, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that the rebound in crude oil prices has been due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of strong summer travel demand. 'While the bias remains positive, OPEC's aggressive supply hikes and bearish market sentiment driven by trade war concerns and surplus fears are likely to limit sharp gains,' he said. Crude oil prices rebounded last month from near $55 per barrel levels and are once again caught in a narrow range of $60–$65, as markets continue to reflect a disconnect between sentiment and reality. 'Trader sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to tariff war fears and OPEC's aggressive unwinding of supply cuts, raising expectations that global oil balances may shift into surplus. On a year-to-date basis, crude oil is down approximately 12%,' Mathur said. In his view, the demand for oil remains strong ahead of the travel season even as global inventories remain tighter than usual. So far, the trade war has not shown any major impact on oil demand, he opined. Recently, OPEC+ announced it would increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive month of sizable supply hikes. This has led to some disappointment in the Street's mood, though the impact has been largely capped as the prices have traded in a range. Mathur said that there are doubts whether the additional oil will actually reach the global market. The geopolitical risks are also supporting prices and the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war despite the ongoing negotiations in Turkey. The Anand Rathi analyst also attributed the stalling of nuclear talks between US and Iran, to be supporting the oil prices. A deal would sanctions against Iran, bringing Iranian oil into the market. Now that appears unlikely, Mathur said. Outlook 'In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain supported. With steady demand, tight inventories, and heightened geopolitical risks, the bias is tilted upward. However, any significant upside remains capped due to OPEC's continued unwinding of supply cuts,' Mathur said. Tech view: Mathur decodes the tech set-up and here's what he said: 1) Moving averages: MCX Crude Oil maintains a bullish bias, holding firmly above its 21-Day Moving Average at 5,262, which serves as a key support level. 2) Key levels: The price action is confined to a consolidation range of 5,250–5,450, with immediate resistance at 5,460. A breakout above the psychological level of 5,500 could pave the way for an upside rally toward 5,685, signalling strength in the bullish momentum. 3) MACD: Technical indicators support this outlook, with the MACD trading above the zero line, reflecting sustained positive momentum. The price structure indicates a bullish bias, with key support near 5,250 and resistance around 5,460. A breakout above 5,500 could signal stronger upward momentum, potentially opening the path toward higher levels like 5685-5945.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Commodity Radar: Crude Oil caught between war winds and OPEC's supply surge. 3 things charts suggest
Crude oil prices traded steady on Wednesday as concerns over higher output from OPEC+ groups were partially offset by supply pressures caused due to the Canadian wildfires along with economic uncertainties in the wake of global trade tensions. ADVERTISEMENT The June crude oil futures on the MCX were trading at Rs 5,473 per Bbl, gaining Rs 18 or 0.33% over the previous closing price. Domestic prices moved in tandem with the international prices. On the COMEX, the US WTI contracts were trading at $63.71 around 4 PM India time, up by $0.30 or 0.47% while the Brent Oil futures were hovering around $65.93, also gaining by $0.30 or 0.46%. Commenting on the current trends, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that the rebound in crude oil prices has been due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of strong summer travel demand. 'While the bias remains positive, OPEC's aggressive supply hikes and bearish market sentiment driven by trade war concerns and surplus fears are likely to limit sharp gains,' he oil prices rebounded last month from near $55 per barrel levels and are once again caught in a narrow range of $60–$65, as markets continue to reflect a disconnect between sentiment and reality. ADVERTISEMENT 'Trader sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to tariff war fears and OPEC's aggressive unwinding of supply cuts, raising expectations that global oil balances may shift into surplus. On a year-to-date basis, crude oil is down approximately 12%,' Mathur his view, the demand for oil remains strong ahead of the travel season even as global inventories remain tighter than usual. So far, the trade war has not shown any major impact on oil demand, he opined. ADVERTISEMENT Recently, OPEC+ announced it would increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive month of sizable supply hikes. This has led to some disappointment in the Street's mood, though the impact has been largely capped as the prices have traded in a range. Mathur said that there are doubts whether the additional oil will actually reach the global market. ADVERTISEMENT The geopolitical risks are also supporting prices and the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war despite the ongoing negotiations in Turkey. The Anand Rathi analyst also attributed the stalling of nuclear talks between US and Iran, to be supporting the oil prices. ADVERTISEMENT A deal would sanctions against Iran, bringing Iranian oil into the market. Now that appears unlikely, Mathur said.'In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain supported. With steady demand, tight inventories, and heightened geopolitical risks, the bias is tilted upward. However, any significant upside remains capped due to OPEC's continued unwinding of supply cuts,' Mathur said. 1) Moving averages: MCX Crude Oil maintains a bullish bias, holding firmly above its 21-Day Moving Average at 5,262, which serves as a key support level. 2) Key levels: The price action is confined to a consolidation range of 5,250–5,450, with immediate resistance at 5,460. A breakout above the psychological level of 5,500 could pave the way for an upside rally toward 5,685, signalling strength in the bullish momentum. 3) MACD: Technical indicators support this outlook, with the MACD trading above the zero line, reflecting sustained positive momentum. The price structure indicates a bullish bias, with key support near 5,250 and resistance around 5,460. A breakout above 5,500 could signal stronger upward momentum, potentially opening the path toward higher levels like 5685-5945. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Khaleej Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
UAE: Will petrol prices drop in June after inching up in May?
Petrol prices in the UAE could see a small cut when new rates are announced for June 2025 at the end of this month. Brent oil mostly traded in the low $60s a barrel range in May 2025, which is slightly lower than last month. On Tuesday, WTI Crude and Brent were trading slightly lower at $61.44 and $64.68 per barrel, respectively. For the month of May, the UAE inched up prices by just one fils per litre, pricing Super 98, Special 95 and E-Plus 91 at Dh2.58, Dh2.47 and Dh2.39 per litre, respectively. In the UAE, petrol prices have been revised at the end of every month ever since the country deregulated fuel prices in 2015. For the month of June, prices could be revised down slightly as the average closing price of Brent was $63.6 a barrel compared to previous months' $66.6 per barrel. However, an official announcement about new rates for June will be made at the end of this month. Oil prices are likely to come under further pressure as energy-producing group Opec+ is likely to increase output further in its meeting this week. 'Crude oil has declined sharply this year amid concerns that US President Donald Trump's import tariffs could dent economic growth and curb demand, just as Opec+ accelerates output increases to protect market share. Oil opened the year near $74.93 and surged to $82.63 by mid-January, only to reverse course sharply, tumbling to $58.40 by April 9. A modest rebound followed, lifting prices to around $65 by late May — but that still leaves oil nearly 20 per cent below its early-year peak,' said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial.
