Latest news with #BretKenwell
CNBC
5 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
A rough stretch for bonds may force some pension funds to sell stocks on Friday
The stock market is set to end May with strong returns, but that may actually work against equities on Friday. A note from the Goldman Sachs trading desk showed that U.S. pension funds are expected to sell $20 billion of equities as part of their month-end rebalancing. That total dollar value ranks in the 86th percentile for net buying or selling in similar rebalances since 2000, according to Goldman. The reason is many pension plans have target allocations for the relative value of their stock holdings versus other assets like bonds or private equity — a large scale version of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. And while stocks have had a banner month, bonds have struggled, meaning that some significant shifts are needed to bring the two groups back in balance when it comes to model portfolios. The SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is up more than 6% month to date, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is down nearly 4%. Short-term bonds have held up better, but even Vanguard's Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) is still on track for a negative month. TLT 1M mountain Long-dated bonds have struggled in May. "We're not used to sort of seeing the volatility we've seen in bonds, as well, and especially when you're working with something like pension funds or on the institution side, these fund flows can be in the billions easily. And when you start to see those rebalances take shape rather quickly, it can definitely be a short- to intermediate-term needle mover," said Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro. To be sure, the selling by pensions could be an opportunity for less rigid investors to buy. HSBC upgraded its view of U.S. stocks to neutral from underweight late Wednesday, in part because of light positioning among long-only investors. Friday could see a chance for some of those to jump back into stocks, especially if they are more confident after apparent progress on tariffs in recent weeks. "Whether it's the 90-days pause or whether it's pushing out deadlines with the EU or legal proceedings like we saw last night, I think there's this sort of belief on Wall Street that we've seen the worst of the tariff situation shake out and that we should continue to move toward continued de-escalation," Kenwell said. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Daily Mail
03-05-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
First jobs report since Trump's tariffs revealed
The US jobs market just pulled off another surprise — Wall Street took notice. Employers added 177,000 jobs in April, blowing past analyst predictions of 135,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, easing fears that tariffs and sweeping federal job cuts had already begun to erode the workforce. It's the second month in a row that job growth has outpaced predictions: payrolls initially increased by 228,000 in March (it was eventually revised down to 185,000). US stock index futures extended gains after the stronger-than-expected jobs report calmed worries over the health of the labor market amid tensions of a global trade war. At 8.30am ET, futures for the Dow Jones were up 299 points, or 0.73 percent, for the S&P 500 were up 42.25 points, or 0.75 percent, and for the Nasdaq were up 139.5 points, or 0.70 percent. 'There are fears that falling consumer confidence and the volatile trade policies from the Administration could ultimately weigh on retail sales and the labor market,' Bret Kenwell, the US investment and options analyst at eToro told 'Although consumers have been shifting how they spend their money, they're still spending, and that can keep powering the US economy forward.' April's jobs numbers also extended a historic streak, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Digging deeper into April's numbers, the US saw surprising growth in several key employment sectors. Transportation and warehousing companies added 29,000 jobs last month, suggesting that companies have been stocking up before tariff impacts smack US consumers. 'Let's not fool ourselves, things are going to get worse later this year, probably later in the summer,' Robert Frick, Navy Federal Credit Union's corporate economist, told CNN. Earlier this week, the US reported its gross domestic product (GDP) ratings. They were far less rosy for the US economy. The numbers, which compares the money sloshing into and out of the US from January through March, showed the US economy contracted by 0.3 percent. Previously, the US had expanded by 2.4 percent. Want more stories like this from the Daily Mail? Visit our profile page and hit the follow button above for more of the news you need.
Gulf Today
03-05-2025
- Business
- Gulf Today
Global stock markets gain on US jobs data, tariff talks hopes
Global stock markets rose on Friday as jobs data reassured investors on the US economy, as did indications Beijing and Washington may begin to talk about resolving their tariff standoff. Data showed that US hiring slowed much less than expected last month, with the world's largest economy adding 177,000 jobs. European equities and US stock futures both jumped following the release of the data. Wall Street's main indices gained around one percent at the opening bell and held onto their gains during morning trading. 'The April jobs report may reassure investors that the labour market is holding up, giving them more confidence that the economy can hold up too,' said Bret Kenwell, analyst at trading platform eToro. Data released Thursday showed the US economy unexpectedly contracted in the first three months of the year on an import surge triggered by US Donald Trump's tariff plans. Falling US consumer confidence and rising jobless numbers have also caused angst among investors. But XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said: 'The market has been pricing out the prospect of US political risk from equities, as the news flow around tariffs remains positive.' The monthly US jobs data is also important for investors looking for indications of the US central bank's path for interest rates, and a smaller-than-expected monthly increase in wages should reassure the Federal Reserve on inflationary pressures in the labour market. Meanwhile, China's commerce ministry on Friday said it was evaluating a US offer for negotiations on tariffs, but insisted Washington must be ready to scrap levies that have roiled global markets and supply chains. Trump's levies reached 145 per cent on many Chinese products in April, while Beijing has responded with fresh 125-per cent duties on imports from the United States. Trump has repeatedly claimed that China has reached out for talks on the tariffs, and this week said he believed there was a 'very good chance we're going to make a deal'. The US president has also imposed 10 per cent tariffs on imports from around the world. Dozens of countries face a 90-day deadline expiring in July to strike an agreement with Washington and avoid higher, country-specific rates. Deutsche Bank managing director Jim Reid said the Chinese statement 'is outweighing concerns about the effect of tariffs, which were initially triggered by disappointing earnings from Apple and Amazon'. US tech giants Apple and Amazon both reported disappointing outlooks, as tariffs knock business confidence, after markets closed on Thursday. Shares in Apple slumped around five percent and Amazon around one percent as Wall Street opened on Friday, but pared their losses during morning trading. In Europe, Paris and Frankfurt rose over two percent as markets brushed off official data showing eurozone inflation remained unchanged at slightly above the European Central Bank's two-percent target. London also gained, with mining and commodity stocks -- sensitive to Chinese demand -- performing particularly well amid optimism for potential China-US talks, according to analysts. In Asia on Friday, Hong Kong was up more than 1.7 percent at the close, while Tokyo rose one percent. Japan's envoy for US tariff talks said in Washington on Thursday that a second round of negotiations between the two countries had been 'frank and constructive'. The Bank of Japan warned earlier that tariffs were fuelling global economic uncertainty and revised down its growth forecasts while keeping its key interest rate steady. Meanwhile, gold edged higher on Friday, after hitting a two-week low in the previous session, but easing trade tensions and a strong jobs report kept prices on track for a second consecutive weekly loss. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,255.01 an ounce as of 9:41am, after hitting its lowest since April 14 on Thursday. Prices were down 2.1% for the week, after hitting a record high of $3,500.05 on April 22. US gold futures rose 1.3% to $3,262.10. 'Gold looks like $3,500 may be a top for a little while, especially if some trade deals start to come through and some risk on appetite starts to break through the kind of negative euphoria that we've been seeing since the tariff talks,' said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Gold prices briefly pared gains earlier in the session after data showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 jobs last month after rising by a downwardly revised 185,000 in March. Traders trimmed bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as soon as June after the jobs report. Yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds rose. Higher interest rates tend to make non-yielding bullion less appealing to investors. Spot silver edged 0.1% lower to $32.35 an ounce, platinum rose 1% to $967.70, and palladium gained 0.9% to $949.00. Agencies
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks gain on US jobs data, tariff talks hopes
Global stock markets rose on Friday as jobs data reassured investors on the US economy, as did indications Beijing and Washington may begin to talk about resolving their tariff standoff. Data showed that US hiring slowed much less than expected last month, with the world's largest economy adding 177,000 jobs. European equities and US stock futures both jumped following the release of the data. Wall Street's main indices gained around one percent at the opening bell and held onto their gains during morning trading. "The April jobs report may reassure investors that the labour market is holding up, giving them more confidence that the economy can hold up too," said Bret Kenwell, analyst at trading platform eToro. Data released Thursday showed the US economy unexpectedly contracted in the first three months of the year on an import surge triggered by US Donald Trump's tariff plans. Falling US consumer confidence and rising jobless numbers have also caused angst among investors. But XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said: "The market has been pricing out the prospect of US political risk from equities, as the news flow around tariffs remains positive." The monthly US jobs data is also important for investors looking for indications of the US central bank's path for interest rates, and a smaller-than-expected monthly increase in wages should reassure the Federal Reserve on inflationary pressures in the labour market. Meanwhile, China's commerce ministry on Friday said it was evaluating a US offer for negotiations on tariffs, but insisted Washington must be ready to scrap levies that have roiled global markets and supply chains. Trump's levies reached 145 percent on many Chinese products in April, while Beijing has responded with fresh 125-percent duties on imports from the United States. Trump has repeatedly claimed that China has reached out for talks on the tariffs, and this week said he believed there was a "very good chance we're going to make a deal". The US president has also imposed 10-percent tariffs on imports from around the world. Dozens of countries face a 90-day deadline expiring in July to strike an agreement with Washington and avoid higher, country-specific rates. Deutsche Bank managing director Jim Reid said the Chinese statement "is outweighing concerns about the effect of tariffs, which were initially triggered by disappointing earnings from Apple and Amazon". US tech giants Apple and Amazon both reported disappointing outlooks, as tariffs knock business confidence, after markets closed on Thursday. Shares in Apple slumped around five percent and Amazon around one percent as Wall Street opened on Friday, but pared their losses during morning trading. In Europe, Paris and Frankfurt rose over two percent as markets brushed off official data showing eurozone inflation remained unchanged at slightly above the European Central Bank's two-percent target. London also gained, with mining and commodity stocks -- sensitive to Chinese demand -- performing particularly well amid optimism for potential China-US talks, according to analysts. In Asia on Friday, Hong Kong was up more than 1.7 percent at the close, while Tokyo rose one percent. Japan's envoy for US tariff talks said in Washington on Thursday that a second round of negotiations between the two countries had been "frank and constructive". The Bank of Japan warned earlier that tariffs were fuelling global economic uncertainty and revised down its growth forecasts while keeping its key interest rate steady. - Key figures at around 1530 GMT - New York - Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 41,097.63 points New York - S&P 500: UP 1.1 percent at 5,664.03 New York - Nasdaq Composite: UP 1.2 percent at 17,922.67 London - FTSE 100: UP 1.2 percent at 8,596.35 (close) Paris - CAC 40: UP 2.3 percent at 7,770.48 (close) Frankfurt - DAX: UP 2.6 percent at 23,086.65 (close) Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 1.0 percent at 36,830.69 (close) Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 1.7 percent at 22,504.68 (close) Shanghai - Composite: closed for holiday Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1338 from $1.1289 on Thursday Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3295 from $1.3277 Dollar/yen: DOWN at 144.39 yen from 145.44 yen Euro/pound: UP at 85.28 pence from 85.02 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.5 percent at $58.33 per barrel Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.4 percent at $61.29 per barrel burs-rl/rlp
Globe and Mail
11-04-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
S&P Futures Gain With Focus on Key U.S. PPI Data and Big Bank Earnings, China Retaliates Again
June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending up +0.69% this morning as investors await crucial U.S. producer inflation data and earnings reports from some of the biggest U.S. banks. U.S. equity futures initially moved sharply higher, attempting to rebound from yesterday's selloff on Wall Street. Later, stock index futures briefly turned lower after China raised tariffs on all U.S. goods to 125% from 84%, effective April 12th. The move came after the White House clarified on Thursday that, including a 20% levy imposed earlier this year, total tariffs on China now stand at 145%. China stated it would not match any additional tariff hikes from the U.S., but affirmed it would continue to retaliate against perceived U.S. offenses. However, stock index futures erased losses and continued to rise as investors appeared to shrug off the latest escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. In yesterday's trading session, Wall Street's major indices closed in the red. The Magnificent Seven stocks retreated, with Tesla (TSLA) sliding over -7% and Meta Platforms (META) falling more than -6%. Also, chip stocks slumped, with Microchip Technology (MCHP) plunging over -13% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and ON Semiconductor (ON) dropping more than -11%. In addition, CarMax (KMX) tumbled -17% after the company posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 EPS. On the bullish side, Enact Holdings (ACT) rose more than +4% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock would join the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, effective April 16th. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Thursday showed that consumer prices slipped -0.1% m/m in March, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m. On an annual basis, headline inflation eased to +2.4% in March from +2.8% in February, weaker than expectations of +2.5% and the smallest increase in 6 months. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y in March, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +4K to 223K, in line with expectations. 'Healthy drop in inflation or big fall drop in demand?' said Bret Kenwell at eToro. 'While the Fed will want more than one data point to just justify its next rate cut, [yesterday's] CPI numbers are certainly a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, the trade-war rhetoric over the last month has muddied the economic waters. Is inflation moving sustainably lower, or did businesses and consumers pull in the reins as they brace for an economic slowdown?' Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid stated on Thursday that he would prioritize curbing inflation if policymakers are forced to balance their goal of price stability against their mandate for full employment. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said, 'To sustainably achieve both of our dual-mandate goals, it will be important to keep any tariff-related price increases from fostering more persistent inflation. For now, I believe the stance of monetary policy is well positioned.' In addition, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described tariffs as a 'stagflationary shock' that places the central bank's objectives of price stability and full employment in conflict with each other. U.S. rate futures have priced in a 63.6% chance of no rate change and a 36.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in May. Meanwhile, the first-quarter corporate earnings season gets underway, with some of the biggest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Morgan Stanley (MS), slated to report their quarterly results today. BlackRock (BLK) and Fastenal (FAST) are other prominent companies scheduled to deliver their quarterly updates today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year. On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. March PPI will come in at +0.2% m/m and +3.3% y/y, compared to the previous figures of unchanged m/m and +3.2% y/y. The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect March figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y, compared to February's numbers of -0.1% m/m and +3.4% y/y. The University of Michigan's U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate the preliminary April figure will stand at 54.0, compared to 57.0 in March. In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and New York Fed President John Williams throughout the day. In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.407%, up +0.34%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -1.41% this morning, reversing earlier gains after China raised stakes in its trade war with the U.S. by imposing additional tariffs on American goods. China said it would impose a 125% levy on U.S. goods, adding that if the U.S. continues to implement additional tariffs, China will disregard them. Technology and financial stocks led the declines on Friday. The benchmark index is on track to post its third weekly decline. Meanwhile, the EU has temporarily suspended its planned retaliatory tariffs for a 90-day period in response to Trump's reciprocal tariff pause, with finance ministers scheduled to meet Friday to consider negotiations with Washington or plan for U.S. tariffs. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that Trump's decision this week to suspend tariffs for 90 days allowed for only a 'fragile pause.' On the economic front, data from the Office for National Statistics released on Friday showed that the British economy expanded more strongly than anticipated in February, but Trump's wave of tariff increases and pauses threatens to hamper further momentum. Separately, final data from the Federal Statistical Office confirmed that Germany's annual inflation rate eased to 2.2% in March from 2.3% in February. In corporate news, Stellantis NV ( slid over -4% after the carmaker reported a 9% year-over-year drop in Q1 vehicle shipments. U.K.'s GDP, Germany's CPI, and Spain's CPI data were released today. U.K. February GDP has been reported at +0.5% m/m and +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y. The German March CPI came in at +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y, in line with expectations. The Spanish March CPI arrived at +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y, in line with expectations. Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.45%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -2.96%. China's Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier losses and closed higher today as optimism over stronger stimulus measures and hopes for an eventual trade deal with the U.S. outweighed Donald Trump's 145% tariffs. Chinese equities opened lower as sentiment was dampened after the White House clarified on Thursday that, including a 20% levy imposed earlier this year, total tariffs on China now stand at 145%. However, expectations for Beijing to unveil new growth support, along with hopes that the world's two largest economies will reach a compromise, pushed the benchmark index higher. Trump stated on Thursday that he believes the first trade deals are 'very close' and expressed optimism that China would eventually come to the table. Meanwhile, domestic chip stocks rallied on Friday after guidance from an industry association raised expectations that tariffs on U.S. chips entering China could speed up localization. The benchmark index ended the week higher. In other news, the People's Bank of China said on Friday that finance and central bank officials from China, Japan, and South Korea met and discussed the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global and regional macroeconomic outlook. In corporate news, Hunan Gold rose over +4% after the miner posted a 73% year-over-year increase in 2024 net profit. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street amid fears that the escalating U.S.-China trade war will dampen global growth. The latest drop came after the White House confirmed that cumulative tariffs on Chinese imports have risen to 145%. Uncertainty also persists regarding the outcome of ongoing negotiations to reduce or avert U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Electronics, pharmaceutical, and automobile stocks led the declines on Friday. The benchmark index notched its third consecutive weekly loss. Meanwhile, Japanese companies are set to begin announcing their outlook for this fiscal year starting at the end of this month. Yusuke Sakai, a senior trader at T&D Asset Management, said, 'Equities rise as long as companies grow, but I am afraid that they may not be able to disclose their outlook, and even if they do, it could be conservative. That may push the Nikkei to a new low.' In other news, a Bank of Japan survey released on Friday showed that Japanese households' inflation expectations increased in the three months to March, maintaining pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates further. As many as 86.7% of Japanese households anticipate price increases a year from now, up from 85.7% in the previous December survey. In corporate news, Baycurrent surged over +12% after the consulting company lifted its full-year net profit guidance and announced a share buyback. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +13.02% to 44.36. Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers L3Harris Technologies (LHX) gained over +1% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs double-upgraded the stock to Buy from Sell with a price target of $263. Joby Aviation (JOBY) slid more than -3% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight. Logitech (LOGI) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after withdrawing its outlook for FY26 'given the continuing uncertainty of the tariff environment.' Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - April 11th JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), Fastenal (FAST), Children's Place (PLCE), Beam Global (BEEM).
