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New York Times

Philadelphia Phillies 2025 top 20 prospects: Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller lead the way

The Phillies' system has lost a lot of depth over the last few years when they have been in contention, but they have a top three that must be the envy of most teams in baseball, with a potential No. 1 starter, an everyday shortstop, and an everyday center fielder making up that group, all first-round draft picks under scouting director Brian Barber. Their international scouting group also continues to find a ton of talented position players, including Starlyn Caba, a recently traded top-100 prospect. (Note: Tools are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale; ages as of July 1, 2025.) Advertisement Painter was supposedly on the bubble to make the Phillies out of spring training in 2023, when he was still 19, but ended up with a UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery and wiped out that season and all of 2024. He returned during the Arizona Fall League this offseason and threw 15 2/3 innings over six outings, still pumping 96-98 with good carry, showing a plus curveball and slider, with only the changeup lagging behind. He's built like a workhorse starter at 6-foot-7 and a listed weight of 215 that's probably out of date by 10-plus pounds, although the elbow tear and two lost years at least push his timetable to take 30 turns in a big-league rotation back a bit. He's probably going to demolish Triple-A hitters this year and end up in the majors in some kind of relief or swing role as the Phillies manage his innings and try to develop his changeup and his command, especially coming off a layoff where he's likely to still have some rust. The healthy version of Painter should be a 200-inning, No. 1 starter. Miller was the Phillies' 2023 first-round pick, coming off a senior season at J.W. Mitchell High School north of Clearwater that ended for him in early March when he broke a hamate bone. Between the injury and the fact that he was 19 at the draft, he slid down some teams' draft boards, which was the Phillies' windfall when they selected him with the 27th pick, as he's quickly become their best position-player prospect. Last season, he ripped through Low-A Clearwater with a .275/.401/.483 line in 39 games where he topped out at 108 mph, then started slow in High A before taking off in his last month and a half there, ending up with a .258/.353/.444 line before a final-week promotion to Double A, all very impressive for a player in his first full year in the minors. He has exclusively played shortstop since he signed, and contrary to predraft reports, he's played it really well, to the point where no one seems to question whether he can stay at the position. He's got very good instincts and shows above-average range in both directions, with a plus arm, playing defense like he wants to make every play. Advertisement I saw him right after the promotion to High A and noted an overly aggressive approach and tendency to get on top of the ball; within about two weeks, he'd already adjusted and was seeing more pitches and driving the ball again. He's even a plus runner now who stole 23 bases in 28 attempts last year, likely adding even more value to his game. Miller has played just 122 games in pro ball, and won't turn 21 until June, so he's still got time on his side and I think more power to come. With Trea Turner's defense slipping — his Runs Above Average on defense hasn't been positive since 2021 — Miller might be the Phillies' future at shortstop, and sooner than you think. Crawford held serve last year, continuing to hit the ball hard and get on base at a high clip (.360 overall between High A and Double A), but also continuing to put the ball on the ground 60 percent of the time because his swing has him coming down at the top of the ball. He's a 70 defender in centerfield and an 80 runner who swiped 42 bags in 51 attempts last year and probably could steal 60 without breaking a sweat. He overstrides at the plate, so he's frequently off-balance, and doesn't load his hands at all from a high setup, resulting in a bat path that often has him coming down towards the zone. Some of this is a matter of strength, as Crawford was all projection when the Phillies drafted him in the first round in 2022, and he still has a lot of physical growth ahead of him, but some is mechanical and it's time for him to make some real adjustments to get in better position to drive the ball. He's going to have plus raw power, and that combined with elite defense and speed will make him an impact player for a long time if he can change his swing to get that raw power into games. Advertisement Everyone agrees that Tait can hit, and hit it hard, with power to come; he hit .321/.377/.500 in the Florida Complex League last year, then moved up to Low A and hit .269/.316/.462 in 28 games, all as a 17-year-old. He did have some platoon splits, mashing against righties, but only struck out six times in 58 PA against lefties, a better K-rate than he had with the platoon advantage. The question is whether he's going to stay behind the plate, where, aside from a plus arm, he's a long way from making it work — and his body is already very thick for his age. His receiving and blocking are well below average as is, and it's more likely he ends up at another position. The bat could still be special enough to make him an above-average regular or more even if he has to go to first base, so he's very much a prospect. Just temper your enthusiasm until we get more clarity on his physical development and eventual position. The only thing that could stop Escobar in the Florida Complex League last year was shin splints; in 104 PA, the Venezuelan infielder hit .338/.495/.481 with 21 walks and 10 strikeouts. It's power and approach, with a fantastic swing and good feel to hit already. He's played third and second and certainly looks more like a third baseman, with thick hips already, and the plus arm to play there. He just hasn't played enough to run him up the board too much, but this is a bat to dream on. Saltiban was the Phillies' 2023 third-round pick out of a high school on the big island of Hawaii. He showed speed and power in his full-season debut in Low A, hitting .237/.346/.428 with 22 steals and 17 homers. He's short but very strong for his size, topping out with an exit velocity of 109.8 mph, although he makes a lot more medium-quality contact than hard-hit right now. He was more of an outfielder as an amateur, played a little shortstop right after he signed, and was mostly at second base last year. He's twitchy enough for the infield but there's a chance he'll return to the outfield as he gets older. He's got tools, he's got feel, he's got actions, and he may just need time. Advertisement The Phillies picked up Chace in the trade that sent Gregory Soto to the Orioles, to which point the Venezuelan righty had had an unremarkable season in High A, striking out a ton of guys (34.2 percent) but walking too many (13.5 percent) while bouncing from starting to relief. After the trade, he took off, throwing more strikes and working with more intent, especially with his hard-to-hit four-seamer. He missed more bats and walked fewer guys, punching out 48 with just 10 walks in 28 1/3 innings between High A and Double A. He made four starts at the higher level, including one where he struck out 10 in 4 2/3 innings and another where he struck out 13 in six one-hit innings. The stuff didn't change, but the plan did, and the Phillies might have just found another starter prospect. Nori was the Phillies' 2024 first-round pick out of a Michigan high school, and was something of a surprise selection because he was among the oldest high school prospects in the class, turning 20 in October. He has tools, though; he's an 80 runner, a plus defensive center fielder and has some feel to hit already. He sets up extremely wide at the plate, limiting his ability to rotate his hips or get his lower half involved to drive the ball, so his average raw power plays down in games. In 14 games in his pro debut — I mean, do I need to explain it's a small sample — he didn't hit a ball over 97 mph and had just one extra-base hit. Loosening him up at the plate isn't a hard fix and it could make him a 20-homer/30-steal guy who stays up the middle. Abel had another disappointing year in the high minors, walking 78 batters in 108 2/3 innings (15.1 percent of batters) and allowing a lot of hard contact, including 119 hits and 15 homers, in his first full trip through Triple A. His delivery works and he shouldn't have this much trouble with walks, while his stuff is mid-rotation level, with four pitches, including two above-average breaking balls. At this point, I might just put him in long relief and see if it helps, because there's no obvious fix and yet the stuff is too good to just let it go. Advertisement Rincon is one of the best defensive shortstop prospects in the minors, at least a 70 defender with a plus arm, showing incredible instincts and actions for the position. Unfortunately, he hit all of .198/.331/.322 last year between Low A and High A in the 35 games he played before a hamstring injury ended his season, and wasn't any better in the Arizona Fall League. He's not that bad, and has more pop than you'd expect from his frame, yet he can get weirdly pull-happy and rolls over to produce a lot of groundballs on pitches he should take the other way. He never strikes out and has so much value defensively that he doesn't have to do that much more with the bat to be a big-leaguer. We'll see how he looks when he's healthy. Burkholder was the Phillies' second-round pick last July out of a Northern Virginia high school, where he missed a good chunk of his spring with a calf muscle injury. He's a 70 runner and a center fielder, just like Nori, their first-round pick, and has a very rotational swing that helps him drive the ball, with 20-homer upside. He did struggle against breaking stuff on the amateur showcase circuit, and his pro debut was ruined when he got hurt again, tweaking a hamstring in his first game. Rincones is a platoon outfielder who can play either corner and smokes right-handed pitching, improving as the season went on even around a midyear stint on the injured list. He doesn't expand the zone at all and as 2024 progressed he boosted his zone contact significantly. He just can't hit lefties and never has; if that changes, he's a good regular. Advertisement DeMartini was Philadelphia's 2024 fourth-round pick out of Virginia Tech off a mediocre spring where he was coming off a shoulder injury. He has plus power but missed a lot of pitches in the zone as an amateur, showing enough ball/strike recognition to give some hope he might be able to improve the contact rate on strikes. He's played short and third, and could stick at the hot corner if his arm strength recovers, with second base the safer bet. It'll come down to contact, because he has the power to play every day at third or second. Johnson is 94-96 with good riding life and a 55 slider as part of a four-pitch mix. His 2024 was his first full season back since 2022 Tommy John surgery. He converted from the infield to the mound while at Campbell and has always had a clean enough delivery to repeat, but the command hasn't been there and last year he didn't even have control, walking 12.5 percent of batters even while working on strict pitch limits for most of the year. It looks like a starter package, while the results say bullpen. McFarlane blew out his elbow in July 2023 and had Tommy John surgery that cost him all of last year. He's supposed to be ready to go for spring training. The stuff is among the best in the system, or was, at least: a two-seamer up to 100 mph, a plus breaking ball, and a split-change that looks plus but didn't neutralize lefties enough. We'll see if the stuff is back, and the command may take more time. He was too good before the surgery to overlook. Graves had a breakout season in his first year in Low A last year, striking out 31.8 percent of batters he faced thanks to a 55 slider at 82-84 mph that hitters whiffed on a lot in and out of the zone. It's not that sharp or tight, mostly 80-84 with some tilt, so it may not have the same results as he moves up the ladder. He's 6-6 and sits 91-93, touching 95, with some projection left and some added deception from the delivery. There's back-end starter potential here. Advertisement Mendez only played 60 games in 2023 around injuries, spending all of that time with the Brewers' High-A affiliate, and after the season they traded him to the Phillies for Oliver Dunn. The Phils sent him back to High A and he improved across the board while staying healthy enough for 90 games. If a player repeats a level, he needs to perform better, and Mendez did, walking as many times as he struck out and gaining 48 points of batting average to finish with a .284/.386/.391 line. He also got his body in better shape and hit the ball hard enough to get to power if he adds some loft to his swing — he's a guy who'd actually benefit from some launch angle optimization. Right now he looks like a decent extra outfielder, with the outside chance to become a good regular if he starts turning more singles into extra-base hits. Cabrera has a good arm but can't hold his stuff deep into outings, as he's probably just too slight to stick as a starter. He'll start out 94-96 with an average changeup and slurvy breaking ball, but the velo tapers off and hitters definitely see the ball better the second time around. I'd stick him right in the 'pen — or trade him while his stats as a starter are still adequate. Pan threw just 29 innings in 2024 due to a broken finger and then a blown UCL that required Tommy John surgery in the fall, so we won't see him again until 2026. He's been up to 100, sitting 95-97 with a killer split and fringy breaking ball, already projecting as a two-pitch reliever before the injury; now he'll turn 23 with less than 100 pro innings under his belt, so the odds of him ending up in the bullpen are even higher. Advertisement Walton struggled in 36 games in Low A, hitting just .200/.331/.333 and striking out in 31.7 percent of his PA, although he missed about two months while on the injured list and only played in 40 total games. He's a great athlete and made extremely hard contact, with a peak exit velocity of 113.4 mph, and is an above-average runner who should be a 55 or better defender in left or right. He should go back to Low A to start the year and get some success under his belt before moving up; there is still a lot of upside here. Painter will probably debut at some point this year considering the Phillies nearly put him on the team before he got hurt. It's more likely he shows up in a relief role, but if he's dominating early as a starter they're going to want to try that out, assuming he has innings left to give in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Seth Johnson probably spends some time in the Phillies' bullpen. Griff McGarry continued to be unable to hit the broad side of a barn, walking 36 in 30 2/3 Triple-A innings, then 11 more in 12 innings in the Arizona Fall League. It's premium stuff but he has 59 walks in 43 Triple-A innings in his career and there's no indication it's getting better. Escobar's bat is so promising that if he'd played just a little more — and kept up the production — he probably would have made the top 100. If he hits like I think he will, he'll be in the top 50 next winter. GO DEEPER Top 100 MLB prospects 2025: Keith Law's rankings, with Roman Anthony at No. 1 GO DEEPER MLB prospects who just missed Keith Law's top 100 ranking: Caissie, Saggese and more GO DEEPER MLB prospects who just missed Keith Law's top 100 ranking: Caissie, Saggese and more (Top photo of Painter: Norm Hall / MLB Photos via Getty Images)