Latest news with #BrianJacobsen
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Hard to believe rates will move lower if Fed resumes rate cuts, says Annex's Brian Jacobsen
Brian Jacobsen, Annex Wealth Management, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss if markets are okay with the latest bill to make its way through Congress, what the bond market's message is and much more.
Business Recorder
14-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Dollar eases after CPI data
NEW YORK: The dollar retreated on Tuesday, pulling back from sharp gains in the prior session after a reading on inflation was less than market expectations. The Labor Department said the consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.2% last month, under expectations of economists polled by Reuters for a 0.3% gain, after dipping 0.1% in March. Still, inflation is likely to pick up steam in the coming months as US tariffs lift the cost of imported goods. 'While the headline number for inflation was better than expected, there are indicators that tariffs have already pushed prices higher,' said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. 'Turning down the temperature of tariffs is good as the price effects would start seeping into the consumer basket pretty quickly. The trade reset with China might mean the Fed can go back to business as usual and gradually resume cutting rates later this year.' The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.36% to 101.36, with the euro up 0.5% at $1.1142. The greenback rallied more than 1% in the prior session on optimism a tariff deal between the United States and China could cool a trade war between the world's two largest economies that raised the risk of a global recession. The dollar is still more than 2% below its April 2 level, when US President Donald Trump announced tariffs and prompted overseas investors to reduce their exposure to US stocks and bonds. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.45% to 147.78, after rallying more than 2% in the prior session as the risk-on mood dented the appetite for safe-haven assets. The greenback weakened 0.47% to 0.841 against the Swiss franc after climbing 1.6% on Monday. The dollar edged up 0.01% to 7.199 versus the offshore Chinese yuan, after falling to a six-month low of 7.1779. The curtailment of US-China trade tensions has led market participants to dial back odds of a recession, along with expectations for the timing and magnitude of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Barclays have recently scaled back their US recession forecasts and their view of Fed policy easing. A rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) is now seen as likely at the central bank's September meeting, compared with the prior view for a cut at the July meeting, according to LSEG data. About 51 bps of cuts are now being priced in for 2025. Sterling strengthened 0.43% to $1.3229. Among cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.99% to $103,699.57 after hitting a high of $105,716,07 on Monday, a 3-1/2 month high. Ethereum rose 2.44% to $2,547.01.
Economic Times
02-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
US yields rise after better than expected manufacturing report
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Popular in Markets Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose from three-week lows on Thursday after a better than expected manufacturing report for April, which also showed that tariffs on imported goods were straining supply chains and maintaining elevated prices for Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing PMI dropped to a five-month low of 48.7 last month, beating economists' forecasts for a drop to survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers for inputs rose to 69.8, the highest level since June 2022."It's cold comfort that the ISM Manufacturing index came in better than expected. It's more like it came in less bad than expected. The collapse of production and new export orders along with an increase in domestic orders suggests that costs are rising and activity is falling. That's not a great combination," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth are balancing the risks that tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump will slow growth and increase inflation , with higher price pressures potentially delaying when the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to resume interest rate cuts."What we've heard from the FOMC so far is that they want to prioritise inflation expectations in any case where there's lower growth and stubbornly high inflation," said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN fell to a more than three-week low earlier on Thursday after data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last employment report for April is expected to show that employers added 130,000 jobs during the month, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.The labor market has remained relatively resilient, which has allowed the U.S. central bank to keep interest rates on hold as it also watches for signs of a potential resurgence in surged early last month after U.S. President Donald Trump announced larger than expected tariffs on trading partners, but have fallen since Trump offered a 90-day pause on most tariff are now focused on what deals will be reached between the United States and trading partners and are watching for when the expected impact of the trade levies are seen in the "hard" economic data."If you exclude all of the sentiment surveys and the corporate earnings calls and what you would call anecdotal evidence, there's nothing in the hard data flashing red that says the Fed has to cut rates right now. So, they're waiting for any of these fears to channel into the hard data," said funds futures traders are pricing in a 68% likelihood of a rate cut in June, and only 7% odds of a rate reduction at the Fed's May 6-7 meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was last up 3.3 basis points at 4.208%, after earlier reaching 4.124%, the lowest since April two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 1 basis point to 3.631%. It earlier fell to 3.558%, also the lowest since April yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened by around 2 basis points to 57 basis points.
Time of India
01-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
US yields rise after better than expected manufacturing report
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose from three-week lows on Thursday after a better than expected manufacturing report for April, which also showed that tariffs on imported goods were straining supply chains and maintaining elevated prices for inputs. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing PMI dropped to a five-month low of 48.7 last month, beating economists' forecasts for a drop to 48. Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Moose Approaches Girl At Bus Stop In Vinnyts'ka Oblast' - Watch What Happens Happy in Shape Undo The survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers for inputs rose to 69.8, the highest level since June 2022. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Bonds Corner Powered By US yields rise after better than expected manufacturing report Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose from three-week lows on Thursday after a better than expected manufacturing report for April, which also showed that tariffs on imported goods were straining supply chains and maintaining elevated prices for inputs. Overseas investors pull Rs 13,359 crore from Indian bonds amid US yield surge and geopolitical tensions Bond Market sees demand surge as RBI's Rs 1.25 Lakh crore OMO plan spurs premium pricing RBI gets nearly double the bids in Rs 20,000-cr market purchase After yield surge, US Treasury expected to keep auction sizes steady Browse all Bonds News with "It's cold comfort that the ISM Manufacturing index came in better than expected. It's more like it came in less bad than expected. The collapse of production and new export orders along with an increase in domestic orders suggests that costs are rising and activity is falling. That's not a great combination," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. Traders are balancing the risks that tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump will slow growth and increase inflation , with higher price pressures potentially delaying when the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to resume interest rate cuts. Live Events "What we've heard from the FOMC so far is that they want to prioritise inflation expectations in any case where there's lower growth and stubbornly high inflation," said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial. Yields fell to a more than three-week low earlier on Thursday after data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week. Friday's employment report for April is expected to show that employers added 130,000 jobs during the month, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The labor market has remained relatively resilient, which has allowed the U.S. central bank to keep interest rates on hold as it also watches for signs of a potential resurgence in inflation. Yields surged early last month after U.S. President Donald Trump announced larger than expected tariffs on trading partners, but have fallen since Trump offered a 90-day pause on most tariff increases. Traders are now focused on what deals will be reached between the United States and trading partners and are watching for when the expected impact of the trade levies are seen in the "hard" economic data. "If you exclude all of the sentiment surveys and the corporate earnings calls and what you would call anecdotal evidence, there's nothing in the hard data flashing red that says the Fed has to cut rates right now. So, they're waiting for any of these fears to channel into the hard data," said Compernolle. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 68% likelihood of a rate cut in June, and only 7% odds of a rate reduction at the Fed's May 6-7 meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was last up 3.3 basis points at 4.208%, after earlier reaching 4.124%, the lowest since April 7. The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 1 basis point to 3.631%. It earlier fell to 3.558%, also the lowest since April 7. The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened by around 2 basis points to 57 basis points.
Yahoo
04-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why the February jobs report may push a jittery stock market toward a correction
Angst over the health of the U.S. economy has investors nervous about the possibility of an approaching recession — and the next big jobs report may not be enough to calm nerves for very long. That's because investors and traders will be eyeing Friday's nonfarm-payrolls report for February through the lens of recent developments that have led to mounting fears about consumer demand and a potential economic downturn, triggering notable drops in stocks and Treasury yields. Why investors who fear a recession and the end of 'American exceptionalism' may be overreacting Three AI stocks to buy if you want to look past the Nvidia hardware build-out 10 dividend stocks for investors who also want growth Wall Street can't stop talking about the 'Mar-a-Lago Accord.' Here's how the currency deal would work. 'Why am I so afraid to retire?' I'm 60 and lost $1.2 million in a divorce. Can I rebuild my life? Those developments include sinking consumer confidence in a Conference Board report on Feb. 25; signs of a contraction in a key S&P Global survey of services-sector activity on Feb. 21; and disappointing earnings guidance from Walmart Inc. WMT on Feb. 20. 'Investors are on edge, so it wouldn't take much to trigger a full-blown correction,' said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Wisconsin, which manages about $6.5 billion in assets. 'If the jobs number is slightly weak, the fear is that disruptions from tariffs could turn slight weakness into something more severe.' Read: Risk of a stock-market correction is rising, Goldman Sachs warns U.S. stocks finished higher on Friday after an inflation reading from the personal-consumption expenditures price index met expectations for January. Over the past two weeks, however, major indexes have moved closer to the magnitude of declines required for a correction — which is defined as a decline of at least 10%, but less than 20%, from a recent high. As of Friday, the S&P 500 SPX was down 3.1% from its record high of 6,144.15, reached on Feb. 19. The Nasdaq Composite COMP was down 6% from its 2025 high of 20,056.25, recorded that same day. February's nonfarm-payrolls report is expected to reflect a gain of 160,000 jobs, up from 143,000 in January, according to the consensus forecast reflected on FactSet. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to slip 0.3% on a monthly basis, from 0.5% previously. Overall, expectations for Friday's job gains are wide. Bradley Saunders of U.K.-based Capital Economics foresees a 170,000 gain in jobs for February. By contrast, Thomas Simons of Jefferies said his New York-based firm is expecting only an increase of 115,000 to 120,000 jobs, after initially estimating fewer than 100,000. Meanwhile, Ryan Jacobs, founder of Florida-based advisory firm Jacobs Investment Management, said a surprisingly positive jobs report will likely lead to only a temporary improvement in investor sentiment, while a negative jobs report could be seen as 'the tip of the iceberg' and result in a stock-market correction within a couple of quarters. Jefferies' Simons and Annex Wealth's Jacobsen are among those who are leaning toward the possibility that Friday's jobs data will come in below expectations. Jacobsen described the Feb. 21 release of the S&P Global's services-sector purchasing managers' index — which fell below 50 — as a 'shot across the bow' that leaves him biased toward a downside outcome on Friday, which could produce a selloff in U.S. stocks and a drop in Treasury yields. He expects a nonfarm-payroll reading closer to 125,000 and sees job gains falling below 100,000 in the March report that arrives on April 4. 'My fear is that any slowdown could snowball into something worse,' Jacobsen said. 'We no longer have a wave of positive consumer sentiment to ride.' Even if Friday's report produces an upside surprise or as-expected job gains, investors could end up focusing instead on the prospect of softer employment growth in the months ahead. That is because February's round of data will not reflect federal cutbacks, and the economy may be due for a slowdown anyway regardless of what the Trump administration does. President Donald Trump's ongoing trade threats against other countries have only added further uncertainty to the U.S. outlook — producing big swings in stock, bond and currency markets. The past week's worth of data has included an updated estimate that revealed the U.S. economy grew at a 2.3% annual rate during the final three months of last year. Before those months, the economy produced a GDP growth rate of more than 3% on a quarterly basis for most of the time between the third quarter of 2023 and the same period in 2024. This stretch was 'an exceptionally long period of time for GDP to be growing above potential,' outside of time periods immediately following recessions, said Simons of Jefferies. Via phone, Simons said his expectation for below-consensus job growth in February is based on a general cooling-off period that he expected to occur during the first six months of 2025. At Philadelphia-based Glenmede, which oversees roughly $47 billion in assets, Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy, said his firm expects February's jobs data to reflect a labor market that continues to hold up. If the unemployment rate ticks higher, however, market participants will reassess how healthy consumers will be over the rest of 2025, he said. And depending on the magnitude of any misses in the jobs report, market participants could immediately price in a growth scare as a higher-probability outcome, Reynolds said via phone. Under that scenario, 'there's going to be more meaningful questions about whether this is a true growth scare' that stops short of a recession, he said — adding that 'we would expect a meaningful correction in equities, but not a full-blown bear market.' A dear friend, 91, wants to add me to the deed of his house. His daughter died and he's not close to his son. Is that a good idea? Inflation traders brace for short-term shock from tariffs, immigration policies 'She's bleeding her retirement dry': My friend earns $9 an hour, but wastes money on vacations and massages. What can I do? 'I've nothing left for retirement': My husband and I have 9 kids and $70,000 in student debt. How do we pay it off? 'He doesn't drink, smoke, party or gamble': My boyfriend, 55, is perfect in many ways, but gets mad if I ask him to contribute Sign in to access your portfolio
