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New Statesman
25-05-2025
- Business
- New Statesman
The public are right to care about small boat crossings
(Photo byThe news that net migration effectively halved last year, falling from 860,000 in 2023 to 431,000 in 2024, will have been received with relief in Downing Street. Is this anything to celebrate? Do we actually want fewer people in the country? For a Labour party that now claims Reform is its main opponent, the answer is yes. The figures present an opportunity to follow in a long political tradition of taking credit for someone else's numbers. Rishi Sunak was able to claim that he had reduced inflation, which had in fact been achieved by the Bank of England. Keir Starmer can now claim that he has steered Britain away from a period of exceptionally high net migration, which was largely achieved by James Cleverley, who as home secretary changed the rules on international students and care workers bringing their families to the UK. The public, however, have a more balanced view. Most people are not really bothered by immigration in general, according to a poll published this month by British Future, which found that 50 per cent of people think it should be reduced overall, and 45 per cent don't see a need to reduce it. This is a reasonable summing up of the general underlying economic principle of immigration, which is that there is no country that produces much more intelligent or hard-working people than any other, and so the costs and benefits of more people arrive generally balance out. The high immigration of recent years has not caused a boom in the UK economy, nor has it crashed it. There are plenty of other reasons to desire immigration (or to want less of it) but in purely economic terms it tends to be neutral. The British Future poll also shows that the public are much more concerned about irregular migration, however, and this is rational. Among respondents who wanted immigration reduced, by far the most popular choice as a priority was the reduction of 'irregular migration, such as on small boats across the Channel'. The number of people who arrive by irregular migration is a lot smaller – nearly ten times smaller – than the number of people arriving by regular routes. But again, it is fair to say that the public is making a rational choice here, because irregular migration does not seem to be falling, and it has very different results. The number of people arriving in the UK on small boats has had a much higher growth rate than the number of people arriving by the usual routes. Before 2018 it was a very rare phenomenon, but the numbers have increased dramatically over the last five years and do not show signs of slowing. The number of small boats arrivals in the first quarter of this year is the highest for the first quarter of any year on record. The pace of this change is clearly part of the reason it concerns the public. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe But in purely economic terms, the people who arrive via irregular migration – almost all of whom go on to claim asylum – also face significant economic challenges. Regular migrants earn similar amounts to everyone else (with differences between the most skilled workers and people in lower-skilled occupations, as with people who already live here). People who have arrived in the UK as asylum seekers have the lowest employment rate of any migrants. In 2022, less than half (48 per cent) of non-EU migrant women who had arrived in the UK by the asylum route were in work, according to Oxford University's Migration Observatory, and less than two thirds (64 per cent) of non-EU migrant men who arrived by asylum were in work. The direct cost of processing asylum claims, and housing people who are making asylum claims, is also a very significant and rising cost. It is the source of a large chunk of the 'black hole' in day-to-day spending that was uncovered by Rachel Reeves's public spending audit last July. The cost of supporting asylum seekers had risen seven times over in three years, to £6.4 billion in 2024-25. Much of this goes on the spiralling cost of asylum accommodation. According to the National Audit Office, the UK is on track to spend £15bn over ten years with just three companies that provide asylum accommodation. The UK will be spending about the same amount on this housing as it is on subsidising renewable energy through its Contracts for Difference scheme. The overall cost of processing an asylum claim in the UK was found to be £106,000, according to the Home Office's impact assessment for the Illegal Migration Bill in 2023, but this cost was also forecast to rise to £165,000 over four years. At the current rate of income tax on the current median income, this represents more than 33 years of income tax contributions. This is, of course, why the tax system exists. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, 64 per cent of the population pays out more in tax than they receive in social security in a typical year. The social safety net is underwritten by people who are healthy and in work. People seeking asylum have very good reasons why they might not be able to work, or why their capacity for work might be limited. These are people who have fled war and famine; as a result they can face a higher likelihood of physical and mental health problems than the general population, and having been displaced they face additional boundaries, such as language and social connections. The UK and other countries clearly have a responsibility to offer asylum to people who need it. But it is now happening at a scale that has a greater fiscal impact than ever before, and the public concern around irregular migration seems economically rational. [See also: Keir Starmer's 'island of strangers'] Related
New York Times
22-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
Britain Records Sharp Fall in Immigration
Ten days ago, Britain's prime minister, Keir Starmer, vowed to take 'back control of our borders,' warning that uncontrolled immigration could result in the country 'becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together.' On Thursday, the government estimated that net migration had dropped by almost half in 2024 compared to 2023, to 431,000, suggesting that Britain's recent period of soaring immigration was ebbing, and perhaps even coming to an end. The gap between Mr. Starmer's alarming language and the statistics underscored how rising populism, fueled in Britain by the politics of Brexit, has distorted the debate on immigration, sometimes leaving it strangely disconnected from the facts. The sharp drop in net migration, which had been predicted, mainly reflected tighter measures on immigration put in place by the previous Conservative government, which had faced acute pressure to reduce a surge that began after Britain left the European Union. Those same pressures are now bearing down on Mr. Starmer's Labour government, which announced a raft of measures earlier this month to further tighten migration rules and make it harder for newcomers to stay permanently in the country. 'The previous government gave Starmer a present wrapped in a bow,' said Sunder Katwala, the director of British Future, a research institute that specializes in migration and integration. 'Having failed to meet their own targets for cutting migration, they managed to cut it back in time for him to take credit for it.' This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
The Independent
21-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Net migration predicted to fall by up to 250,000 in major boost for Starmer
Net migration to the UK is set to fall by as much as 250,000 when new figures are released on Thursday, a think tank has predicted in a major boost for Sir Keir Starmer. Despite a poll indicating more than half of Britons (58 per cent) expect net migration to increase, the British Future think tank believes the Office of National Statistics (ONS) update will show a significant drop in the number of people arriving in the UK. Net migration climbed to a record 906,000 in June 2023, and it stood at 728,000 in the year up to June 2024. With fewer work and study visas being granted by the Home Office, it is expected that the overall estimated net migration to the UK will fall. The prime minister has already promised that the government's new immigration measures will mean net migration falls 'significantly' over the next four years. Plans unveiled last week include a ban on the recruitment of care workers from overseas, tightened access to skilled worker visas, and tougher English language requirements for spouses coming to the UK. Though Sir Keir did not set a target for how much the government wants to bring net migration down by, the Home Office estimated that the new policies could lead to a 100,000 drop in immigration per year by 2029. Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: 'Falling net migration is one of Britain's best-kept secrets. The ONS figures will show a dramatic fall, probably by over a quarter of a million, but that will come as a complete surprise to 90 per cent of the public. 'That's because our political debate on immigration has failed to keep up with reality. Immigration remains high but is much lower than the previous peaks. It will likely fall further. 'We need a different immigration debate that looks forward to how we manage the pressures and gains of migration for the economy, infrastructure and public services.' The Migration Observatory, at the University of Oxford, has also said that it is widely expected net migration numbers will fall, tracking a decline since a post-Brexit high of non-EU nationals coming to Britain. The number of people coming to the UK on health and social care visas has been consistently falling since restrictions were introduced by the then-Conservative government in 2024. These measures were introduced in an attempt to row back on large immigration rises under prime minister Boris Johnson. Then-home secretary James Cleverly restricted the ability of students and care workers coming to the UK to bring family members with them, and salary thresholds across the skilled worker route were also increased. The Independent revealed this month that applications for health and care workers visas are now at a record low. Between April 2023 to March 2024, there were 129,000 applicants, but that plummeted to just 26,000 in the year to March 2025, according to government figures.
The Guardian
04-05-2025
- General
- The Guardian
Britons largely unaware of Black and Asian contribution to WW2 effort, research shows
The British public is largely unaware of the contribution made by soldiers from Commonwealth countries such as Jamaica and Kenya to the second world war, research has found, as campaigners say greater recognition of the diversity of those who fought against fascism will strengthen national unity. Ahead of the 80th anniversary of VE Day on 8 May, a FocalData poll for the thinktank British Future, which works to highlight integration, found 'there is a strong public appetite' for greater awareness and teaching in schools of the diversity of the war effort – but a lack of knowledge about the contribution of Black and Asian personnel. The research found 86% of respondents agreed 'all those who thought for Britain in the world wars, regardless of where they came from' should be commemorated and 77% felt remembering the 'shared wartime history' of British and Commonwealth troops could help build cohesion in today's 'multi-ethnic society'. But only 24% of respondents were aware troops from Jamaica and Kenya fought for Britain, while only 34% were aware of Muslim soldiers' contributions and only 43% knew about the service of Sikh personnel. The findings of the poll, from a representative sample of 1079 adults, come as the Commonwealth War Graves Commission (CWGC) urges people to reflect on the 'loss of so many from across the globe' this VE Day, which marks the official surrender of Nazi Germany. Canadian soldier Pte Clarence Alvin Trimm, 21, born to Guyanese parents in Montreal, is among those CWGC is commemorating this year. He first tried to enlist at 15, growing a moustache to look older, and was fatally wounded in Germany just two weeks before VE Day, having taken part in the liberation of the Netherlands. British Future describes the western allied forces as 'remarkably diverse, including Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims from the 2.5 million-strong Indian army', alongside 1 million personnel from Africa and tens of thousands from the Caribbean, with crucial involvement in significant battles, intelligence and medical aid. Last month, 10 second world war veterans, including former UK, Indian and US personnel, urged the public, in an open letter released by the Together coalition, backed by public figures including former athlete and servicewoman Kelly Holmes and former chief scout and SAS trooper Bear Grylls, to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice, the 'danger of authoritarianism and fascism' and 'how it took all of us coming together across classes, religions, races and nations to prevail'. Before a 7 May webinar on the importance of remembering second world war Commonwealth troops, British Future director, Sunder Katwala, said: 'Getting that right can help broaden our national story and forge a more shared sense of identity. 'We should step up efforts to raise awareness ... Nearly half of us (45%) don't know about the Indian army's role in WW2, when we're talking about 2.5 million (people). Moments like VE Day 80 are an opportunity for their stories to be heard.' The Department for Communities and the Department for Education have been approached for comment.
