12-05-2025
Why Putin isn't ready to lay down his arms
A game of brinkmanship is afoot. On Thursday, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, will be seated at a negotiating table in Istanbul. The question is whether Vladimir Putin will be opposite him.
After a weekend of frantic diplomacy, in which Sir Keir Starmer joined the leaders of France, Germany and Poland in Kyiv, the Russian president finally made his move.
He did not, however, yield to European demands for an immediate 30-day ceasefire or face yet more sanctions. Instead, he offered a counter-proposal: direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey – but no silencing of the guns.
In the capitals of Europe there are serious, if slender, hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough to end the war in Ukraine. But make no mistake, this was not a genuine concession from Putin; it was a manoeuvre – a manoeuvre that, for the moment, has found favour in the White House.
It is after all, on both sides, a throwback to the positions held in the early months of the full-scale war in 2022. Back then, Putin was happy to send his minions to Turkey to discuss the terms under which Ukraine would surrender.
A document known as the Istanbul Communiqué was drafted, under which Ukraine would accept permanent neutrality, abandon its Nato ambitions and accept drastic cuts to the size of its armed forces.
In exchange Kyiv would be offered security assurances by the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: Britain, France, the US, Russia and China.
Recalling how little the assurances made by Budapest Memorandum of 1994 counted for, Kyiv politely declined. Under the memorandum, signed with Britain, Russia and the US, Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons on the understanding that its borders would be inviolable.
Kremlin aides have made it clear that Russia expects the previously rejected Istanbul Communiqué to be the basis of new talks. In addition, negotiations would also have to 'take account of the real situation' on the battlefield, according to Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin official – an indication of the territorial losses Moscow expects Kyiv to suck up.
In other words, the fare offered up by Putin is considerably less appetising than it was in 2022, something that is not lost on European leaders.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, accused the Russian leader of stalling, saying 'he wants to buy time.' Friedrich Merz, the new German chancellor, stuck to the original position advanced by Donald Trump of a ceasefire first and then talks. 'The guns must first fall silent before talks can begin,' he said.
If the Europeans hoped to present a united Western front, however, Mr Trump had other ideas. The US president seemed all too happy to accept Putin's implied rejection of his ceasefire proposal, gave immediate support to his counter-proposal of talks and then, once again, applied pressure on Zelensky to comply 'IMMEDIATELY', as he wrote on his Truth Social platform.
The Ukrainian leader duly obliged. Ever since his testy meeting with Mr Trump at the White House in February, Mr Zelensky has promptly jumped through every hoop the US president has placed before him in the hope of making it clear that Russia is the obstacle to peace.
Mr Zelensky's acquiescence is strategic in other ways — and is also a reversion to the position he held in the early stages of the war when he made repeated calls for direct talks with Putin.
The Russian leader is in an awkward position. Believing he has the upper hand on the battlefield, he has little real desire to stop fighting even if he is willing to discuss the terms of Ukraine's capitulation.
He is therefore perfectly happy to send underlings to Istanbul in order to dictate what would essentially be surrender terms to the Ukrainians. If they refused, it would be no great loss.
He could be reasonably confident that Russia would escape serious US censure should talks collapse. After all, Mr Trump has so far only taken substantive action against Ukraine, briefly freezing intelligence sharing and arms shipments.
On the other hand, the odd threat of sanctions aside, the Trump administration has aligned with Russia on a key United Nations vote, resumed broader diplomatic ties with Russia and made it clear that he is eager to pursue commercial deals with the Kremlin.
But face-to-face talks with Mr Zelensky are quite a different matter. Not only would it create an impression of equality between the two, it would be hard for Putin to maintain his argument that his Ukrainian counterpart is an illegitimate, Nazi-coddling dictator.
On top of which, direct talks would require genuinely substantive negotiations: two leaders do not generally sit down to talk if one is demanding the other's unconditional surrender.
There is no doubt that serious back-channel bargaining is under way. Claims from European diplomats that the coming days could be decisive may turn out to have something to them. If Putin were to turn up in Istanbul, hopes for a deal would certainly rise significantly.
Or it could all be wishful thinking. So far, Putin has secured greater concessions from the US than he would once have dreamt possible – all without actually having to do anything. The unanswered question is why he would change tack now.
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