2 days ago
I'm a nuclear scientist. This is the significance of Israel's airstrikes
Israel has embarked on a perilous path to dismantling Iran's nuclear programme, and has launched direct aerial attacks on one of the key uranium enrichment sites located in Natanz. These facilities are built just a few meters underground, and are thus vulnerable to missile attacks and aerial bombardments.
A number of prominent nuclear scientists were also killed in the attacks, including a former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation. The attacks constitute a major warning to the Islamic Republic to curb its nuclear activities.
Iran, over the past six decades, has acquired a highly advanced and encompassing nuclear programme, including Uranium Enrichment Plants, the Heavy Water Plant, and Heavy-Water research reactors. The dual use nature of nuclear technology is well established, and Israel's concerns about nuclear proliferation have provided them the impetus to attack Iran's critical infrastructure – including nuclear facilities.
It is most likely that Israel, as part of the 'Operation Rising Lion', will attack other nuclear sites in the subsequent phase of its aerial military campaign. It may target the highly advanced facilities at Esfahan Nuclear Technology Centre and also the Esfahan Nuclear Research Centre, in particular the Uranium Conversion Facility, where uranium concentrate is converted to uranium hexafluoride gas, as feed for centrifuges to enrich uranium.
The Heavy Water Plant at Arak could also be a potential target for attack, as the key components of the plant are tall columns built in the open. In the event of an all-out strike, the research reactor in Tehran could be targeted, as it is vulnerable to drone, missile, and aerial strikes.
The Fordow Uranium Enrichment Facility, built some 60 meters inside a mountain, is designed not to be vulnerable to attacks by drones, rockets, missiles, or the U.S. Bunker Busting bombs. However, its external (offsite) electricity supply, cooling water supply, and air supply systems are highly vulnerable. Uranium has been enriched to 83.7 per cent at Fordow, which is comparable to the 80 per cent enriched uranium contained in the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
It is unlikely that the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant would come under attack, as such plants are designed and constructed to withstand aerial attacks. However, external power supplies and cooling water systems are regarded as soft targets, and highly vulnerable to drone and missile strikes.
Extensive damage to the plant could lead to a Fukushima-like accident, and release of significant quantities of radioactivity into the marine environment of the Persian Gulf. This could lead to the extensive contamination of the ecological systems and disruption of shipping operations. It could also affect oil and gas production and the supply of water to some of the Arab States in the Persian Gulf.
Moreover, Russian personnel may be present at the plant, and any harm to them would constitute a major escalation of the conflict which Israel, under the circumstances, would not wish to provoke.
Should Israel decide to launch further direct attacks, it is likely that it would also target critical infrastructure adjacent to nuclear facilities, including fossil-fuelled power stations, electricity grids, and cooling water supplies. Destruction of critical infrastructure could lead to extensive damage to nuclear facilities and their normal operations.
Iran, in the event of an all-out attack on its nuclear facilities, could take retaliatory action by striking Israel's nuclear research centres. Iran's recent aerial attack on Israel has demonstrated its military capabilities and its ability to escalate the conflict. Iran could heighten the hostilities yet further by attacking Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates: these countries have normalised diplomatic relations with Israel and host US military bases. The US could thus become directly involved in the conflict.
It is imperative that concerted diplomatic efforts are instituted to prevent further escalation of the conflict, and to restore peace, security and stability in this highly turbulent region. Diplomacy and dialogue must prevail.
Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
