12-03-2025
US inflation is cooling. But not in New England.
CPI rose 2.8 percent last month from a year earlier, as declining energy costs moderated the biggest uptick in food prices since January 2024.
Consumer prices excluding food and energy — a measure known as core CPI that is considered a better indicator of underlying inflation — dipped to its lowest annual pace since April 2021.
The news for
Why it matters:
Advertisement
That momentum, combined with a slowing economy, could give the Federal Reserve more flexibility to lower interest rates if the economy weakens.
Get Starting Point
A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday.
Enter Email
Sign Up
Stock prices rose modestly after two days of losses driven by tariff-induced recession fears and a steep sell-off in big tech stocks.
What they're saying:
'The combination of easing inflationary pressures and rising downside risks to growth suggest that the Fed is moving closer to continuing its easing cycle,' Goldman Sachs Asset Management said in a note.
The good, the bad, and the ugly:
Drilling down, here are annualized changes for key components of CPI.
The pace of increases in food prices ticked up to 2.6 percent. Groceries rose 1.9 percent, while meals at full-service restaurants rose 3.7 percent. Eggs rose a staggering 59 percent.
Energy prices dipped 0.2 percent, as a 3.4 percent drop in gasoline prices was almost entirely offset by a 6 percent jump in the costs of natural gas.
Shelter costs rose 4.2 percent, a decline from 5.7 percent in February 2024 and a peak of 8.2 percent in March 2023.
Prescription drug prices increased 4.6 percent.
New vehicle prices fell 0.5 percent, but insurance jumped 11.1 percent.
Final thought:
With
But Trump's chaotic rollout of tariffs makes it difficult to know whether February's progress on prices is a welcomed resumption of disinflation or merely the calm before the storm.
Larry Edelman can be reached at
