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Miami Herald
13-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Feenstra lays groundwork to run for Iowa governor
Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra has filed paperwork to run for governor of Iowa in the 2026 election. Feenstra, a third-term congressman from Hull, Iowa, won his 2024 reelection with over 67% of the vote; if he proceeds with a gubernatorial campaign, it would create an open seat in the heavily Republican 4th District. Feenstra first came to Congress after defeating longtime incumbent Rep. Steve King in a Republican primary in 2020. Monday's filing of a state of organization form with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board allows Feenstra to raise funds for a gubernatorial campaign ahead of any public announcements. CQ Roll Call reviewed the public filing. Feenstra, who was also a tax writer in the Iowa state Senate, has been particularly active on tax and trade policy since joining the Ways and Means Committee in the 118th Congress. The Ways and Means panel is scheduled on Tuesday to begin marking up its portion of the budget reconciliation bill designed to implement President Donald Trump's tax policy agenda. Iowa's incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds, a Republican, made a surprise announcement last month that she would not seek reelection. Feenstra could be the first of many well-known candidates to enter the race. The widely reported names of potential candidates include state House Speaker Pat Grassley - grandson of Sen. Charles E. Grassley, R-Iowa - as well as state Attorney General Brenna Bird and state Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig. CBS News first reported on Feenstra's intention to enter the contest. Rob Sand, the Democratic state auditor, also entered the race on Monday. Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Miami Herald
09-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
18 months out, these are the 10 most vulnerable House members of 2026
WASHINGTON - In the world of finance, the adage "past performance is not indicative of future results" serves as a warning for investors. But in politics, past performance can provide a handy measure to assess the vulnerability of members of Congress, especially early in an election cycle. And 18 months from the 2026 midterms, the first half of our list of the 10 most vulnerable House incumbents is dominated by battleground district members who each won their seats last fall by a percentage point or less. Freshmen are also heavily represented in the Top Five. The incumbents who occupy the second half of our list are more seasoned and had slightly more comfortable margins of victory last year – with the exception of Rep. Jared Golden. The Maine Democrat secured a fourth term by less than a point in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 9 points. But Golden, along with Nebraska Republican Don Bacon, New York Republican Mike Lawler and Washington Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, have repeatedly won reelection through the strength of their unique brands, which has helped them overcome the unfriendly political headwinds in their districts. In addition to examining past performance to identify the at-risk incumbents, CQ Roll Call's campaign team relied on interviews with party insiders, district dynamics, candidates' campaign finances, race ratings by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and district-level presidential performance, as calculated by elections analyst Drew Savicki. We only look at incumbents and not at open seats, which could also flip and affect party control. Our list will surely change over the next year and a half. At this early stage, though, races in several key districts have yet to be set, and several vulnerable members don't have opponents. Other factors will also come into play. Our list does not include members from Ohio, where a new map, expected later this cycle, could endanger Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes, potentially providing the GOP with a pair of prime pick-up opportunities. And demographic shifts could also shape the list. Republicans are hopeful that their path to holding the majority will run through two predominantly Latino border districts in South Texas that have grown more GOP-friendly in recent elections. Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez have managed to navigate the political currents before, but 2026 will test them yet again. Cuellar faces an additional challenge: He was indicted last year over two schemes involving unlawful foreign influence, bribery and money laundering. He has maintained his innocence and is awaiting a criminal trial. Historically, the party that controls the White House loses seats in the first midterm election after the president's victory, though that statistic comes with an asterisk this time as it's technically Trump's second term. But Democrats express optimism that Trump's economic policies and what they say is his administration's chaotic approach to cost-cutting could hurt House Republicans' chances of maintaining their majority. Our inaugural 2026 list includes five Republicans and five Democrats, reflecting what is expected to be a close battle for control of the House. Gray, a freshman and former state legislator, unseated Republican Rep. John Duarte by less than 200 votes in 2024. It was the closest House race in the nation, but voters in the working-class Latino-majority district in the San Joaquin Valley are used to close contests: Gray lost to Duarte by fewer than 600 votes in 2022. A member of the Blue Dog Coalition, Gray was the only Democrat on the Natural Resources Committee to vote for the panel's portion of the GOP budget reconciliation bill. He's already drawn a challenge from Republican Javier Lopez, the mayor of Ceres who has Duarte's support. Gray raised about $400,000 in the first quarter of 2025. Lopez launched his campaign after the filing deadline. A former police officer, Evans is a top target of Democrats seeking to flip the state's most competitive district. But before doing battle with the Republican freshman, Democrats face a potentially testy primary to determine their nominee. Former Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who has spoken of her mental health struggles while serving in Congress, and state Rep. Manny Rutinel have declared bids, and the field could grow more crowded. Rutinel reported raising $1.2 million in the first quarter, while Evans brought in about $811,000. (Caraveo entered the race after the filing deadline.) The district, located in a fast-growing region north of Denver, has a large Latino population, and all three candidates have highlighted their Hispanic heritage. After flipping a seat last fall to help Republicans win the majority, Mackenzie will have to turn out swing voters in the Lehigh Valley-area district to win a second term. Like others on this list, the district has a large Hispanic population, and their support could be critical in this race. A Democratic primary is taking shape between Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure and former utility company executive Carol Obando-Derstine, a onetime aide to former Sen. Bob Casey who has the backing of former Rep. Susan Wild. Mackenzie raised $673,000 during the first quarter, while McClure, who entered the race in February, brought in $142,000. Obando-Derstine declared her bid after the filing deadline. Miller-Meeks has survived two close elections, including a six-vote win in 2020. Last year, she defeated Democrat Christina Bohannan by 798 votes. Bohannan has signaled she may run a third time against Miller-Meeks, who herself came up short in three House runs before winning in 2020. Trump significantly overperformed the congresswoman in the southeast Iowa district last year, underscoring Miller-Meeks' potential weakness with the Republican base. She once again faces a challenge from her right from David Pautsch, a Gold Star father who took 44% of the vote in their 2024 primary. Miller-Meeks reported raising more than $1 million in the first quarter. Attorney and Army veteran Derek Tran became the first Vietnamese American to represent Orange County's Little Saigon after defeating Republican Rep. Michelle Steel by just over 650 votes in 2024. The Democratic freshman does not have a high-profile GOP opponent as yet, though Steel has signaled that she is considering a run. The district, which has an Asian American plurality, is located in one of the nation's most expensive media markets. Tran raised $460,000 through the end of March, entering the second quarter with $567,000 banked. Steel had $943,000 in her coffers as of March 31. The 2026 election will test whether Gluesenkamp Pérez can prevail over an opponent who isn't Joe Kent, the Trump-backed Republican she beat in 2022 and 2024. Trump has tapped Kent as the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, leaving him unlikely to make a third bid for the southwest Washington district. Gluesenkamp Pérez has emphasized her working-class connections and has sided with the GOP on some issues, including a measure that would require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections. That's made her a target of some progressives, but at this point, she does not have a Democratic (or Republican) challenger in the all-party primary. Gluesenkamp Pérez reported raising $608,000 in the first quarter of the year. One of three Republicans representing seats carried by Kamala Harris in last year's presidential election, Lawler can once again expect another tough race. But his moderate brand has found appeal with voters in his Hudson Valley district. He's likely to face a new opponent next year after running against former Rep. Mondaire Jones in 2024. So far, five Democrats have already announced campaigns against him. He reported raising $1.5 million in the first quarter and entered April with $1.3 million in the bank. Lawler has been considering a gubernatorial run, although Trump endorsed him for reelection this week. First elected in 2016, Bacon has consistently defied the political underpinnings of his Omaha-centered district. Democrats are hopeful Bacon's fortunes will turn in 2026. Former state Sen. Tony Vargas isn't planning a third run for the seat, but business owner Denise Powell and ophthalmologist Mark Johnston have launched campaigns for the Democratic nomination and state Sen. John Cavanaugh told the Nebraska Examiner he is considering a bid. Bacon, who has been critical of Trump's tariff policies and suggested the president should fire Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, said he's thinking about retiring, though he raised $910,000 during the first quarter. Golden's propensity to buck his own party has helped him continue to get elected in a rural district where Trump increased his support from 2020 to 2024. Still, the nature of the district, which encompasses much of Maine outside the Portland and Augusta areas, makes Golden a top target, and he'll have to keep counting on drawing crossover support from Trump voters. Former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, who left office as Golden began his House tenure in 2019, announced a campaign this week. Golden is also considered a potential candidate for higher office next year, with an open race for governor and a Senate seat on the ballot in 2026. Davis held on to his seat last year despite the district swinging in Trump's favor and the congressman's own winning margin narrowing from two years earlier. The Air Force veteran and former state senator did face a stronger GOP opponent in 2024, although Democrats sought to tie her to her party's flawed gubernatorial nominee. Davis was the only Democrat to vote "present" this year on a bill that would restrict transgender students from competing on women's sports teams. Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson entered the race last month, his second bid for the seat after placing second in the 2022 GOP primary, and more Republicans could follow. Davis raised $328,000 during the first quarter and ended March with $528,000 on hand. Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Miami Herald
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Miami Herald
A year and half out, these are the most vulnerable senators of the 2026 cycle
National A year and half out, these are the most vulnerable senators of the 2026 cycle Thom Tillis, R-N.C., left, and Bill Cassidy, R-La., attend a Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee confirmation hearing in Russell building on Tuesday, April 1, 2025. They are among the most vulnerable senators up for reelection next year, either in a primary or general election. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via ZUMA Press/TNS) TNS WASHINGTON - Our initial list of the Senate's most vulnerable incumbents for the 2026 cycle is shorter than usual after three Democratic incumbents from competitive states announced that they wouldn't seek reelection next year. A year and a half out from Election Day, just three senators are running for another term in states rated as "Battlegrounds" by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff, North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis and Maine Republican Susan Collins are all gearing up for tough races and awaiting announcements on who will step up to challenge them. For now, this trio makes up the most vulnerable members in the chamber, although there's plenty of time for more incumbents to get on the list as the midterm election cycle develops. Candidate recruitment throughout the rest of the year could also shake up the list. Democrats surely sighed with relief Monday, when Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp announced he wouldn't run for Senate, taking Republicans' top would-be recruit in the state off the board. Ossoff, however, remains highly vulnerable in the Peach State, which voted for Donald Trump by 2 points last year. He's already drawn attacks from Republicans after signaling support for impeaching Trump at a town hall last month. Still, the incumbent's campaign war chest is among the largest of senators on the ballot next year, a sign of the battle to come. Just behind Ossoff is Tillis, who represents a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 2008. All eyes are on whether former Gov. Roy Cooper enters the Democratic primary, which already includes former Rep. Wiley Nickel. Collins, no stranger to tough races, lands at No. 3. She's so far drawn a Democratic challenger in Jordan Wood, a former House chief of staff, but others could yet enter the race. Term-limited Gov. Janet Mills has said she doesn't currently plan to run for office next year, though the Democrat could change her mind. Races for open seats in Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters is retiring, and New Hampshire, where Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is stepping down, are both likely to be among the most competitive in the country this cycle and will shape the rest of the electoral map. Republicans are also hoping to force a competitive race in Minnesota, where Democrat Tina Smith is retiring. None of the three states are represented on this list, which only looks at vulnerable incumbents. Two Republicans from solidly red states also make the list as they are vulnerable in their primaries. Louisiana's Bill Cassidy, who drew a censure from his state party after voting to convict Trump at his second impeachment trial, will have to win back support from his party as the state shifts to a more traditional primary system this year. And Texas' John Cornyn faces a primary challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race in which support from Trump could be critical. Both Cassidy and Cornyn could also face additional primary challengers. Republicans' current 53-seat majority and relatively few pickup opportunities make for a challenging 2026 cycle for Democrats. But the party is hopeful that more opportunities will emerge as the political environment for next year's midterms solidifies. Two appointed senators, Ohio's John Husted and Florida's Ashley Moody, will face voters for the first time as Senate incumbents. If former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost reelection last year, were to challenge Husted, that race could become competitive, and issues such as tariffs could play a major role in other states coming on the map. Here are the five incumbents on our initial list of the most vulnerable senators of the 2026 election cycle: As he gets ready for what's likely to be an intense and enormously expensive reelection campaign, Ossoff raised an astounding $11.1 million in the first three months of the year, entering April with a similar amount banked. The first-term Democrat has emerged as the GOP's top target of the cycle, though no high-profile challengers have declared bids so far. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp disappointed many Republicans both at home and in Washington when he said he would not seek the seat, saying it was "not the right decision for me and my family." But there's no shortage of ambitious Republicans who could seek to challenge Ossoff, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Earl L. "Buddy" Carter, Rich McCormick and Mike Collins, state Insurance Commissioner John King and Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper. For Tillis, who is in his second term, navigating the Trump era has proved challenging: He has faced opposition from both Democrats and members of his own party. The North Carolina GOP censured Tillis in 2023 in part over his votes on gay rights, gun safety and immigration. And he has already drawn a handful of primary challengers, including retired furniture manufacturing executive Andy Nilsson and author Don Brown, who have accused the incumbent of being insufficiently supportive of Trump. On the Democratic side, former Rep. Wiley Nickel is running, but many Democrats are awaiting a decision from former Gov. Roy Cooper. Tillis raised about $2.2 million in the first quarter of 2025 and ended March with $4 million banked. The only Senate Republican representing a state carried by Kamala Harris in last year's presidential election, Collins is no stranger to difficult races. Collins, the chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, is running for a sixth term and will once again be relying on her personal brand as a moderate in her blue-leaning state. A University of New Hampshire poll last month found 71% of Mainers saying she didn't deserve to be reelected, although some polls showed her underwater ahead of her 2020 reelection too. Collins had $3.2 million in her campaign account at the end of March. Cassidy's 2021 vote to convict Trump on one article of impeachment earns him a spot on this list as he seeks a third Senate term. He's already drawn one primary challenger who's won statewide before, Treasurer John Fleming, and other Republicans could still enter the race. Cassidy has taken steps to underscore his support for Trump, including voting to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services secretary. Louisiana is set to hold a more traditional party primary this cycle, a change from previous years when all candidates competed on a single November ballot, and this could be an additional challenge for the incumbent. Even so, Cassidy is gearing up for a fight: He reported having $7.5 million in his campaign account at the close of the first quarter. Everything's bigger in Texas and that includes Senate races. The intraparty slugfest between Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton promises to be both bitter and costly, and could grow more crowded if Rep. Wesley Hunt joins the race. Paxton is positioning himself as a disruptor and plans to attack Cornyn for negotiating a bipartisan update to the nation's gun laws. Cornyn has signaled that he'll focus on Paxton's legal troubles: The attorney general was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 on misconduct, bribery and corruption charges, and later acquitted following a trial in the GOP-led state Senate. Trump's endorsement could be critical in the race. Cornyn, who has the strength of the Senate GOP establishment behind him, entered April with about $5.6 million on hand, while Paxton launched his candidacy after the filing deadline. On the Democratic side, a pair of former congressmen are weighing bids: Colin Allred, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz last year, and Cruz's 2018 opponent, Beto O'Rourke. ___ Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers. This story was originally published May 6, 2025 at 9:37 AM.
