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Hindustan Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
China is waking up from its property nightmare
CHINA'S ECONOMY has been through a stress test in the past six months with the trade war shredding nerves. The tensions over tariffs are not over yet. On May 29th Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that ongoing talks had 'stalled' and President Donald Trump complained that China 'had totally violated' the preliminary agreement to reduce duties reached between the two sides in Geneva on May 12th. Yet even as the trade war staggers on, two things are proving reassuring for China. One is that so far the economy has been resilient. Private-sector growth estimates for 2025 remain in the 4-5% range. The other is that one of China's biggest economic nightmares seems to be ending: the savage property crunch. To get a glimpse of that, consider a gated home in Shanghai's Changning district. It has an air of traditional German architecture and a large front garden, a feature of the city's most ritzy neighbourhoods. But what really stands out is the price. On May 27th the property sold for a stonking 270m yuan ($38m), creating a sensation in the Chinese press. At 500,000 yuan per square metre, it is one of the priciest home auctions in recent memory. That the wealthy are prepared to pony up such an exorbitant price is being interpreted as a sign that China's huge and interminable property crisis might finally be ending. Speculation about a turnaround has been building over dinner tables, in boardrooms and at state-planning symposia. The excitement is hardly surprising. Property, broadly defined, contributed about 25% of GDP on the eve of its crash in 2020. It now represents 15% or less, showing how the slump has been a huge drag on GDP growth. The depressive impact of falling prices on ordinary folk is hard to overstate. In 2021 80% of household wealth was tied up in real estate; that figure has fallen to 70%. Hundreds of developers have gone bust, leaving a tangle of unpaid bills. The dampening of confidence helps explain sluggish consumer demand. But while the market is still falling, for the first time since the start of the crisis, you can make a decent case that the end is in sight. In the first four months of 2025 sales of new homes by value fell by less than 3% compared with the year before. In 2024 the decline was 17%. Transactions will continue to drop only modestly for the rest of the year, reckon analysts at S&P Global, a rating agency. One of the biggest problems was that millions of flats were built but never sold. Last year as many as 80m stood dormant. Now in the 'tier-one' cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, that problem is easing. At the end of January the inventory held by developers in those cities would have taken around 12 and a half months to shift at current sales rates, according to CRIC, a property data service. That is down from nearly 20 months in July 2024, and not far from the average of ten months in 2016-19 across the country's 100 largest cities. In other words, the overhang is starting to look less terrifying. Shanghai's renaissance illustrates the trend. Transactions rose slightly each month from February to April compared with the year before, making it one of the few cities where prices have risen year on year for months in a row. It still has controls over who can buy properties and how many. But luxury homes are starting to be snapped up quickly, says Ms Fang, an estate agent. The prices of standard properties will probably continue to grow this year, she says, but the most expensive homes are increasing in value even faster. What explains the bottoming out of the market? Partly, just the passage of time. The average housing crash takes four years to play out, according to a study by the IMF of house-price crashes around the world between 1970 and 2003. Officials in Beijing started deflating the bubble by tightening developers' access to credit in mid-2020 and investors started to panic about the solvency of the monster developers at the end of that year. But as well as time, the government is more determined than ever to put an end to the downturn. Local governments have been encouraged to buy unused land and excess housing with proceeds from special bonds. Some are handing out subsidies for buying homes. A plan to renovate shantytowns could create demand for 1m homes. The central bank cut interest rates in May, reducing mortgage rates for new home purchases. This has boosted property sales activity, says Guo Shan of Hutong Research, a Beijing-based consulting firm. There are still dangers. The trade war is a drag on confidence. Home prices across 70 cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics declined by about 2% in April from a month earlier. Sales of new homes and the starting and completion of housing projects all fell month on month. Fewer cities in April notched month-on-month price increases compared with the month before. Things are not getting much worse but they will probably not get better without more government support, says Larry Hu of Macquarie, an investment bank. In Wenzhou, a manufacturing city on China's southeastern coast, price declines are still sharp. Locals say the trade war with America is shaking confidence. Mr Zhou, a restaurant owner, says the official data do not capture huge discounts of more than 50% on some new homes in overbuilt areas. He blames a manufacturing downturn, and Mr Trump's trade war. In all probability the crisis is over in big rich cities, such as Shanghai, but may last longer in smaller cities, such as Wenzhou. New-home prices in first-tier cities will be flat this year and increase by 1% next year, according to S&P. But in third-tier cities and below they will fall by 4% this year and 2% next. Small cities are full of unwanted homes. China is escaping its property nightmare. Even so, the Communist Party must ensure it is not only big-ticket mansions in Shanghai that look appealing. Get 360° coverage—from daily headlines to 100 year archives.
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Canadians alarmed by text messages asking their vote preference. Then their postal code. Then their name
It's election time, so receiving a text message from "Mary" or "Nancy" asking about your voting preferences might not seem all that unusual. At least that's what Calgarian Stacey Schonek thought when she heard her phone ping this week and read a message from a sender with "ERG National Research" posing that question, along with a list of federal party choices. "I was momentarily quite excited [and] thought I get a chance to say what is going on in Alberta," said Schonek. So, she responded. When a return text asked for her postal code, she responded again. But then she was asked for her name. She says that's when she realized something was off and started asking the sender questions with no response. "You don't need my name, so that to me was very suspect," Schonek told CBC News. She wasn't alone in being suspicious. Calgarian Stacey Schoneck was among the Canadians to receive the text messages from ERG National Research. (Radio-Canada) The Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), a polling industry association, posted a notice on its website last year saying it has received numerous complaints about these text-message tactics from ERG National Research. The notice stresses that ERG is not a member of its association and "should not be confused with Environics Research, a CRIC member in good standing." "We have very specific rules on how our members collect data and get survey information from individuals and we really use that as a way to try to distinguish a legitimate request from some that may not be legitimate," said CRIC CEO John Tabone. Since issuing the notice, Tabone says people have been reaching out to CRIC regularly because they're worried about what might be done with the information they've shared. "I've gotten concerns from people saying, 'You know, I'm a senior citizen, just fill this out. I know now that I've seen the information about it, I'm really concerned … You know, is there a risk to me?'" said Tabone. Who's behind the texts? Tabone has done his own research on the company but says what he has found has been limited — and confusing. According to the CRTC Voter Contact Registry, ERG National Research is listed as a communication service provider (CSP) for ElectRight, which, in turn, is listed as a CSP for ERG National Research. From a corporate registry search, Tabone says he found both ERG and ElectRight use the same mailing address. And while he couldn't find a website for ERG, he did find one for ElectRight, with limited information. "This company might be legitimate, but it's really hard when there isn't transparency," said Tabone. CBC news has reached out to ElectRight but has not received a response. Advice: Don't reply 'STOP' B.C.-based cybersecurity expert Ian Robertson recently wrote a blog post about the ERG texts, which he said is drawing several thousand visits per day. He says he's been tracking who's clicking on the post and what he's noticed is interesting. Three weeks ago, Robertson says he was getting traffic from B.C. Two weeks ago, it was clicks from Ontario. And starting last week, the post was getting hits from Alberta. "We're still getting a high rate of hits coming from Alberta," said Robertson. "So we are seeing it moving provincially, and currently Alberta seems to be the hotbed where we're seeing the traffic coming from." Robertson says, presumably, as people receive these texts, they search for answers. His advice: Ignore it, block it, and report it as spam. Examples of the messages Canadians have been receiving. (Screenshots) He says providing any response at all, even replying with "STOP," verifies your phone number is a real number. "As they're pushing [for information], they're filling out a spreadsheet and [for] some people they're just going to have, yes, you're a human and yes, there's somebody there, " said Robertson. And he says even a small piece of information carries a lot of value. He says your postal code, in some cases, can narrow down the block or apartment building where you live. "You've increased the value by [confirming] this phone number is at this specific location, so some third party now has that level of demographic detail on you," said Robertson. Robertson says it's best to always check the Elections Canada website for any election-related information. Tabone says he believes what ERG Research is doing is wrong, but he says it's not exactly clear what rules they are violating, so he urges people to report their concerns, as he has, to Elections Canada and the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC). How to complain, and to whom CBC news reached out to the CRTC and, in an emailed response, the commission said it "plays a narrow role to promote and monitor compliance with Canada's Anti-Spam Legislation within a civil regulatory regime, [and] the CRTC investigates complaints that fall within this narrow mandate." The CRTC also encourages people to contact the Commissioner of Canada Elections and Elections Canada if they are concerned about election-related spam, and the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre if they believe they are a victim of fraud. Tabone says it's not clear who is responsible for investigating these types of complaints. He says he now plans to raise the issue with the privacy commissioner. But he hopes if enough people speak up, these types of practices be investigated. "I think the more that people complain and make this an issue, I think it's going to escalate potentially some changes to regulations," said Tabone.
CBC
27-03-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Canadians alarmed by text messages asking their vote preference. Then their postal code. Then their name
It's election time, so receiving a text message from "Mary" or "Nancy" asking about your voting preferences might not seem all that unusual. At least that's what Calgarian Stacey Schonek thought when she heard her phone ping this week and read a message from a sender with "ERG National Research" posing that question, along with a list of federal party choices. "I was momentarily quite excited [and] thought I get a chance to say what is going on in Alberta," said Schonek. So, she responded. When a return text asked for her postal code, she responded again. But then she was asked for her name. She says that's when she realized something was off and started asking the sender questions with no response. "You don't need my name, so that to me was very suspect," Schonek told CBC News. She wasn't alone in being suspicious. The Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), a polling industry association, posted a notice on its website last year saying it has received numerous complaints about these text-message tactics from ERG National Research. The notice stresses that ERG is not a member of its association and "should not be confused with Environics Research, a CRIC member in good standing." "We have very specific rules on how our members collect data and get survey information from individuals and we really use that as a way to try to distinguish a legitimate request from some that may not be legitimate," said CRIC CEO John Tabone. Since issuing the notice, Tabone says people have been reaching out to CRIC regularly because they're worried about what might be done with the information they've shared. "I've gotten concerns from people saying, 'You know, I'm a senior citizen, just fill this out. I know now that I've seen the information about it, I'm really concerned … You know, is there a risk to me?'" said Tabone. Who's behind the texts? Tabone has done his own research on the company but says what he has found has been limited — and confusing. According to the CRTC Voter Contact Registry, ERG National Research is listed as a communication service provider (CSP) for ElectRight, which, in turn, is listed as a CSP for ERG National Research. From a corporate registry search, Tabone says he found both ERG and ElectRight use the same mailing address. And while he couldn't find a website for ERG, he did find one for ElectRight, with limited information. "This company might be legitimate, but it's really hard when there isn't transparency," said Tabone. CBC news has reached out to ElectRight but has not received a response. Advice: Don't reply 'STOP' B.C.-based cybersecurity expert Ian Robertson recently wrote a blog post about the ERG texts, which he said is drawing several thousand visits per day. He says he's been tracking who's clicking on the post and what he's noticed is interesting. Three weeks ago, Robertson says he was getting traffic from B.C. Two weeks ago, it was clicks from Ontario. And starting last week, the post was getting hits from Alberta. "We're still getting a high rate of hits coming from Alberta," said Robertson. "So we are seeing it moving provincially, and currently Alberta seems to be the hotbed where we're seeing the traffic coming from." Robertson says, presumably, as people receive these texts, they search for answers. His advice: Ignore it, block it, and report it as spam. He says providing any response at all, even replying with "STOP," verifies your phone number is a real number. "As they're pushing [for information], they're filling out a spreadsheet and [for] some people they're just going to have, yes, you're a human and yes, there's somebody there, " said Robertson. And he says even a small piece of information carries a lot of value. He says your postal code, in some cases, can narrow down the block or apartment building where you live. "You've increased the value by [confirming] this phone number is at this specific location, so some third party now has that level of demographic detail on you," said Robertson. Robertson says it's best to always check the Elections Canada website for any election-related information. Tabone says he believes what ERG Research is doing is wrong, but he says it's not exactly clear what rules they are violating, so he urges people to report their concerns, as he has, to Elections Canada and the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC). How to complain, and to whom CBC news reached out to the CRTC and, in an emailed response, the commission said it "plays a narrow role to promote and monitor compliance with Canada's Anti-Spam Legislation within a civil regulatory regime, [and] the CRTC investigates complaints that fall within this narrow mandate." The CRTC also encourages people to contact the Commissioner of Canada Elections and Elections Canada if they are concerned about election-related spam, and the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre if they believe they are a victim of fraud. Tabone says it's not clear who is responsible for investigating these types of complaints. He says he now plans to raise the issue with the privacy commissioner. But he hopes if enough people speak up, these types of practices be investigated.
Yahoo
27-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Chinese property giant Vanke warns of huge loss, CEO resigns
Indebted Chinese property giant Vanke said Monday that its CEO had resigned due to "health reasons", after state-backed media reported he had been taken away by authorities. The company also warned on Monday of a net loss of approximately 45 billion yuan ($6.2 billion) last year. Chinese outlet the Economic Reporter this month cited sources as saying that Zhu Jiusheng had been "taken away by public security authorities", but did not specify whether he had been formally detained. Vanke has not confirmed Zhu's detention but said in a statement on Monday that he "has applied to resign... owing to health reasons". Zhu "will no longer hold any position within the company", the firm said. Hong Kong-listed Vanke is part-owned by the government of Shenzhen and was China's fourth-largest real-estate firm by sales last year, according to research firm CRIC. Alongside other real estate titans, it has staggered through a years-long debt crisis, and on Monday in a filing at the Hong Kong Stock exchange warned of a net loss of approximately 45 billion yuan last year. "The Company deeply apologises for the performance loss and will make every effort to promote business improvement," it said in a separate statement. Two other top executives -- chairman of the board Yu Liang and company secretary Zhu Xu -- had left their positions "due to work adjustments" but would continue in other roles, according to the company. The Economic Observer article did not specify what offences Zhu may be alleged to have committed. It reported at the time that calls and messages to Zhu and people close to him had gone unanswered. Vanke did not respond to an AFP request for comment following the publication of the article. mjw-pfc/oho Sign in to access your portfolio
