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Massive rainfall expected on the 12-year anniversary of the 2013 floods
Active weather across the west. Jodi Hughes has a look at the five-day forecast from the Sky Watch Weather Centre.
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On June 19 to 21, 2013, Calgary and area garnered international attention after a meteorological 'perfect storm' led to heavy rain, rapid snowmelt and significant flooding across the region.
Coincidentally, on June 20 and 21 this year, there is evidence of a synoptic setup that could bring up to 95 millimetres of rain in Calgary.
Massive rainfall expected on the 12-year anniversary of the 2013 floods
June is typically the wettest month in Calgary with Environment and Climate Change Canada reporting the 30-year average of 112.7 millimetres of precipitation for June, compared to the second wettest month (July) with 65.7 millimetres of precipitation.
On average, between 1991 and 2020, Calgary receives an annual total of 445.4 millimetres of precipitation.
There is more model agreement today on high precipitation totals for the end this week, now that a number of low pressure systems in the north Pacific basin have started to merge.
Massive rainfall expected on the 12-year anniversary of the 2013 floods
This larger system in the west is expected to park along the southern B.C. coastline by Friday, and precipitation totals in southern Alberta will likely be enhanced by another merged complex from the north-central regions.
More simply, moisture from the Pacific will funnel in to southern Alberta.
Temperatures will also drop as colder air enters the northern edge of the Pacific low.
Calgary could see between 75 to 95 millimetres of rain on Friday and Saturday, which depending on the distribution over those two days, might be a record-setting amount of rain.
There are a number of differences today as compared to 2013, including better flood mitigation and snow melt, but even with that and a drier surface today, adding this much moisture over such a short period of time will likely create some challenges once a maximum saturation level has been reached.
Massive rainfall expected on the 12-year anniversary of the 2013 floods
Rain and thunderstorms are also possible on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with Tuesday showing a similar set up to Monday as thunderstorms are likely to initiate off of the foothills in southern Alberta.
Daytime highs will be slightly warmer than the seasonal average of 20 C on Tuesday through Thursday, with a quick drop from Thursday to Saturday, when the daytime high on Saturday is forecast to be closer to the average low of 8 C.
