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Winnipeg Free Press
25-04-2025
- Politics
- Winnipeg Free Press
Poilievre's unwillingness to change has Carney's Liberals on brink of majority
Opinion Canada's two main poll trackers are projecting remarkably similar outcomes for Monday's federal election: a clear Liberal win, albeit one closer to a razor-thin majority than a landslide. Both Canada338 and the CBC Poll Tracker predict the Liberals could win around 186 to 190 seats, comfortably clearing the 172-seat threshold needed to form a majority in the House of Commons. The Liberals have a four-point national lead over the Conservatives, slightly less than the six to seven-point lead the party held earlier in the campaign, according to both poll trackers. More importantly for the Liberals, they continue to lead in the key battlegrounds of Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even British Columbia. JUSTIN TANG / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's refusal to soften his image or broaden his appeal has cost him dearly, writes Tom Brodbeck. In Ontario, the province that often decides elections, the Liberals are out front by a margin of six to 10 points depending on the poll. That's no small thing. And it's not just suburban Toronto or the GTA where they're making gains. In a stunning twist, some polling suggests Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre himself could be at risk of losing his seat in Carleton — a once-safe riding on the outskirts of Ottawa where the Liberal ground game has reportedly gone into overdrive. The Liberals could win as many as 80 to 85 of Ontario's 122 seats and just over half of Quebec's 78 seats, according to the poll trackers. Why? Because while Liberal Leader Mark Carney has spent the last month reassuring Canadians with a message of competence, economic prudence, and middle-of-the-road stability, Poilievre has remained firmly stuck in campaign mode — one that's more suited to a Trump rally than to a Canadian federal election. The Poilievre campaign bet big on anger and frustration. And while that may have worked for a core slice of his base, it didn't resonate widely. Especially not in Ontario, where voters are traditionally wary of firebrands and ideologues. His inability — or unwillingness — to shed the attack-dog persona may have won him headlines, but it cost him credibility where it mattered most. And the Liberals have seized that opening. While the focus of the campaign over the past week or so may have shifted back slightly to affordability, crime and Canada's housing crisis — which have been the centrepieces of the Conservative campaign — it hasn't been enough to close the gap between the two leading parties. Under Carney, the Liberals have run a far more focused, issues-driven campaign than they have in years. The former Bank of Canada governor has leaned into his economic credentials, assuring voters that he's the steady hand Canada needs in uncertain times. And while he's taken jabs at Poilievre along the way, his tone has been measured — his debates grounded in facts and policy. It's paid off. In short, the math works in favour of the Liberals. And with a few days left in the campaign, the momentum is firmly on their side. The NDP, meanwhile, hasn't been able to blunt the Liberal surge. Jagmeet Singh's party is still polling below 10 per cent nationally and is poised to lose a chunk of the seats it held in the last Parliament. It may even lose official party status. The strategic voting narrative has been playing squarely in the Liberals' favour since the beginning of the campaign, especially in urban ridings where progressives are looking for the surest path to stop Poilievre. While the polls could tighten slightly by Monday, it's hard to see a scenario now where the Conservatives catch up. In fact, some of the seat projections suggest they could win fewer seats than in 2021, a disastrous result for a party that believed — not long ago — this was their election to lose. Instead, they're watching it slip away, one riding at a time. The irony is Poilievre had a real opportunity this year. With former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepping aside and Canadians grappling with affordability issues, crime, and global instability, voters were open to change. But change only sells if it comes with a credible alternative — and Poilievre's refusal to soften his image or broaden his appeal has cost him dearly. During Elections Get campaign news, insight, analysis and commentary delivered to your inbox during Canada's 2025 election. The Conservatives built a movement. The Liberals built a campaign. In politics, that's the difference between barking from the sidelines and actually getting to govern. The Liberals, for all their flaws and missteps in the past, seem to have remembered that Canadians don't just vote against something — they vote for something, too. This time, they may be voting for calm over chaos, policy over punchlines and leadership over theatrics. And that, more than anything, explains why Canadians could wake up Tuesday morning with a Liberal majority in Ottawa — and a Conservative party facing a bitter reckoning of its own. Tom BrodbeckColumnist Tom Brodbeck is a columnist with the Free Press and has over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom. Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press's editing team reviews Tom's columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press's tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press's history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates. Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber. Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.
National Observer
24-04-2025
- Politics
- National Observer
In Edmonton Griesbach, the NDP incumbent hopes to hold on
Homeless encampments overflow the streets of Chinatown, located in the most disadvantaged area of Edmonton's northern Griesbach riding. In the street, a group of homeless people consume drugs and alcohol in full view, in the middle of the afternoon. Some lose their balance, while others hurl insults at passers-by. The scene takes place in front of a nearby Thai restaurant, whose windows open directly onto the sidewalk. Inside, the owner — eager to remain anonymous to preserve his restaurant's reputation — watches them, then lets out a long sigh. 'We're becoming like Vancouver,' he says. Preoccupied with his restaurant and his day-to-day concerns, he admits he's not in the mood to follow the current federal campaign. In any case, he believes that no party will be able to solve the city's homelessness and drug addiction problems, the most glaring issues in his eyes. 'No matter what they do, it won't change a thing. No one will be able to solve the crisis, unless they put a complete stop to the fentanyl trade,' he says. A few meters away, Ravendra Chand, the owner of a small convenience store, makes the same point. Juggling two jobs, he says that following the election campaign is at the bottom of his list of priorities. 'People here don't have time to follow politics,' he explains shyly, referring to those like him who are struggling to make ends meet. The socio-demographic issues specific to this riding — which encompasses some of Edmonton's most disadvantaged neighbourhoods — present a challenge to anybody hoping to get out the vote. Once again this year, an extremely close battle is shaping up between incumbent NDP MP Blake Desjarlais and Conservative Kerry Diotte, who was twice elected to Parliament by the riding in 2015 and 2019. According to projections by poll aggregator Canada338, the two parties are currently neck-and-neck. The Liberals are out of luck in this two-way race. In 2021, Desjarlais wrested the riding from Diotte with a slim lead of around 1,500 votes. Encouraging the vote At the NDP riding office closer to downtown, dozens of orange signs line the building's windows. It's almost empty inside, except for a few volunteers. They're under no illusions: the national figures don't bode well for the party, which is projected for a dramatic decline from 24 to just 5 MPs, according to current figures. Holding this riding is even more crucial to the NDP's survival in that context. That's why a team of some 50 volunteers is out in the field encouraging people to vote. In the 2021 election, voter turnout in the riding was ten points below the national average. Back from his shift, 70-year-old volunteer Ken Robinson is already preparing for his next tasks. The man who has just returned from installing some thirty election signs in the area makes no secret of his nervousness as Election Day approaches. 'On election day, I'll be running from one polling station to the next to collect the voters' lists. We'll compile the data to see who has voted, so we can contact those who haven't,' he explains. 'Mobilizing voters will be crucial in this election. That will really be the key.' This mission is now at the heart of the NDP's strategy, and not just for volunteers. That same morning, Desjarlais himself was at Londonderry Mall, just minutes from his campaign office, inviting passers-by to vote at advance polls at the Elections Canada office set up in the mall. 'People don't know their basic rights. They think it takes a million pieces of ID and documents to vote. It's a real barrier,' the 31-year-old MP told Le Devoir. The Conservative Party did not respond to our requests to meet with the riding's local candidate or his team. Voting strategically Another major challenge for the NDP campaign is to convince left-leaning voters not only to turn out at the polls, but also to vote strategically to avoid a split vote. While voting for Mark Carney's Liberals may be tempting in the context of the trade war, many progressive voters fail to grasp that this could give the Conservatives an advantage in this tight two-way race, argues Hans Smits, another septuagenarian involved as a volunteer in the local campaign. 'We hear it a lot when we go door-to-door. We explain to people that voting for the Liberal candidate means giving victory to the Conservatives. Then we give them this,' he says, pulling a small orange poster from his binder. On the cardboard, a graph illustrates the 2021 results, highlighting how much of the Liberal vote (around 13%), in third place, can tip the balance. For Ken Robinson, the stakes go far beyond the local battle. With tears in his eyes, he confesses to dreading the end of an era when the NDP still had room to maneuver in Ottawa, when the party and Justin Trudeau's Liberals were bound by an agreement of support and trust. 'We got dental care and universal drug coverage. We really got things done,' he says, apologizing for his 'tears of passion.'
