2 days ago
Canadian G7 summit gears up around geopolitics
THE G7 was founded half a century ago to facilitate shared macroeconomic initiatives in response to 1970s challenges, including the then-energy shock, and the ensuing international recession. However, the body has evolved into much more of a powerful geopolitical actor in the decades since.
This core fact will be crystal clear at the Canadian-hosted leadership summit from Sunday (Jun 15) to Tuesday in Kananaskis, Alberta. Top of Prime Minister Mark Carney's major priorities for the event is 'protecting our communities and the world' which he defines as 'strengthening peace and security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime'.
To this end, key topics at the G7 include: preserving Ukraine's long-term prosperity and security; regional peace and stability in the Middle East; cooperation to increase security and resilience across the Asia-Pacific region; building stability and resilience in Haiti and Venezuela; supporting enduring peace in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; and strengthening sanctions and countering hybrid warfare and sabotage.
Big agenda
It is a big agenda, and one that requires deep global partnerships. This is why Carney, US President Donald Trump, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President Antonio Costa will be joined by a host of other world leaders. These include Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum may also attend.
The strong geopolitical flavour of the Canadian G7 underlines the group's often under-appreciated importance as an international security lynchpin. The G7's involvement in this multitude of geopolitical dialogues is controversial given its original macroeconomic mandate. For instance, Beijing strongly objects to any G7 discussion of security issues in Asia.
China and some other non-Western countries assert that the G7 lacks the legitimacy of the United Nations to engage in these international security issues, and/or is a historical artefact given the rise of new emerging market powers who are not members. However, it is not the case that the international security role of the G7 is new.
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An early example of the lynchpin function the body has played was when it helped coordinate Western strategy towards the then-Soviet Union. Moreover, following the September 2001 terrorist attacks, the then-G8 (including Russia) assumed a key role in the US-led 'campaign against terrorism'.
To be sure, economic issues will also be on the agenda in Canada, but these will often be shaped by security issues and geoeconomic in nature. The second of Carney's major agenda priorities, for instance, is 'building energy security and accelerating the digital transition' including 'fortifying critical mineral supply chains'.
This agenda has come to higher prominence since Moscow's military invasion of Ukraine in 2022 which exposed the huge reliance of the EU, in particular, on Russian energy.
Since then, there has been an intensified emphasis by advanced industrialised economies, not only Europe, to diversify dependence for raw materials driving a recent series of major trade deals, including the EU-Mercosur agreement.
In recent days, much media attention has focused on Carney's invitation of Modi, signalling a potentially significant shift in Canada-India relations. There had been a souring of ties since Trudeau accused New Delhi of carrying out the killing of a Sikh separatist leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia in 2023.
Nijjar had called for creation of a separate state for Sikhs in India. Four Indian nationals have since been arrested in connection to his murder.
However, an even bigger diplomatic challenge for Carney will be Trump and seeking to preserve alliance unity, especially given the disruptive impact of the US president's agenda on issues such as tariffs. Carney will be very well aware that, in 2018, when Canada last hosted the G7 summit, tensions between his predecessor as prime minister, Justin Trudeau, and Trump boiled over. So much so that the US president refused to sign the end-of-summit communique, and called for Russia's re-entry into the club.
Trump criticised other G7 leaders, including Trudeau, as having 'acted so meek and mild' but 'very dishonest and weak' in an extraordinary outburst. Moreover, upon leaving the Canadian event, Trump went on to heap praise on North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un who he met soon afterwards at the so-called Singapore summit. This show of positive feedback came despite little, if any, new concessions from Pyongyang at the time over its nuclear programme in talks with Trump in a process that collapsed a year later in Vietnam.
The potential for problems may be just as high in coming days, if not higher, with Trump taunting Canada, for months now, with jibes of wanting it to become the 51st US state. So Carney, who only took office on Mar 9 after a career as a central banker, faces a potentially very challenging event to host successfully.
Far from serving as an annual affirmation that the G7 club is largely aligned, as in the past, this year's diplomacy may see very significant splits. This could potentially be over the major flashpoints that include not only tariffs, but also Ukraine.
As in 2018 at the last Canadian G7, it is even possible that Trump may again call for a return of Russian to the club, when it was the G8. Yet, most other G7 members are strongly opposed to this and there is little sign that Moscow, which joined the then-G8 summits from 1997 to 2014, will be invited back to the club while President Vladimir Putin remains in office.
Seeking consensus
This context makes it difficult for the Canadians to frame a 'Trump-proof' G7 agenda. However, despite disagreements over Ukraine, Ottawa may seek to highlight consensus at this week's foreign ministers meeting over foreign issues including stability in the Asia-Pacific region, the crises in Haiti and Venezuela, and peace and security opportunities and challenges in Africa.
Even this agenda carries risks, however, given the Trump team's berating of the failure of numerous key states to spend more on defence, a theme that is likely to figure again later this month at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization leadership summit in the Netherlands. This list of states includes Italy, despite the close relationship between Meloni and Trump.
Taken together, this year's G7 could therefore see big diplomatic fireworks again. While some of the club's disagreements pre-date Trump, his presidency has widened these schisms in a way that poses the biggest threat to Western unity in living memory.
The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
