Latest news with #Caranci
Business Insider
26-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
‘Big Job Losses Are Coming to Canada,' Says TD Bank's Chief Economist
Fears of a recession in Canada are rising, with more economists now saying that the country may already be entering one. TD Bank's (TSE:TD) chief economist, Beata Caranci, says that President Trump's tariff war has hurt business and consumer confidence in both the U.S. and Canada. But in Canada, the drop in sentiment is worse than what was seen during the pandemic. Indeed, over 20% of Canadians are worried about losing their jobs, and the CFIB barometer shows a steep drop in business confidence. However, Caranci notes that unlike the U.S., where the economy is still holding up despite low sentiment, Canada is seeing a strong link between fear and actual economic weakness. Confident Investing Starts Here: In just two months, Canadian companies have cut 75,000 jobs, with half of those coming from manufacturing. Even worse, TD expects another 100,000 jobs could be lost by the third quarter, which would push the unemployment rate to 7.2%, or 1% higher than the bank's earlier forecast. TD has also cut its GDP forecast and now predicts that the economy will shrink in the second and third quarters of this year. Other economists agree, with a Bloomberg survey showing an expected 1% annualized GDP decline in Q2 and 0.1% in Q3. Despite the recession risks, Prime Minister Mark Carney's government has decided to delay its budget until the fall but is moving ahead with a tax cut that will cost $5.6 billion per year, although it would only save average earners about $32. Unsurprisingly, Caranci argues that this won't boost spending during uncertain times and says that the money would be better spent on targeted measures like green renovation tax credits or a temporary GST holiday. Without stronger action now, she warns that Canada could be firmly in a recession by September and make job losses even harder to reverse. Is XIU a Good Stock to Buy? (TSE:XIU) stock based on 50 Buys, 10 Holds, and one Sell assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average XIU price target of C$43.11 per share implies 9.4% upside potential.
Global News
21-05-2025
- Business
- Global News
Is Canada heading for recession? One economist says it may lack ‘severity'
If Canada is heading for a recession, how severe could it be? That's the question being debated by many economists and financial experts who warn that the main driving force is the trade war brought on by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. The labour market has already been shedding jobs as tariffs take hold and companies brace for higher costs, and at least one economist is forecasting the loss of thousands of jobs in the coming months. In an interview with The Globe and Mail, TD Group's chief economist and vice-president Beata Caranci said the bank is 'worried' Canada will enter a recession, in addition to potential job losses heading towards the third quarter of the year. 'We can see perhaps another 100,000 jobs lost,' Caranci said in that interview. 'We've already had over 70,000 lost in the private sector in two months.' Story continues below advertisement In a statement to Global News about that forecast, Caranci said much depends on how effective the federal government is at implementing promises to 'stabilize jobs, particularly in manufacturing.' 'The 100,000 jobs looks like a big number but it amounts to 0.4% of the labour force,' Caranci said in an email to Global News. 'Past recessions have corresponded with job losses in a range of 1-5% of the labour force. This speaks to the belief that there will be a front-loaded adjustment to the tariff environment, but it'll likely lack severity.' She added: 'But for now, there's immediate transparency in jobs at risk of being lost, rather than what can be gained.' 3:04 Ontario tables tariff-era budget with bigger deficit and bleak economic outlook How is a recession determined? There are several ways to gauge a recession, and the formal definition by most economists and central bankers is when Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shows a decline for two consecutive quarters, or a six-month period. Story continues below advertisement This means that the total value of goods and services produced within Canada in that period would be less than the same period one year prior. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Rising unemployment and inflation trends can also be used to determine a recession. If Canadian businesses continue to pull back on producing goods and services due to the heightened cost of tariffs, that will be shown in economic data including GDP. The trade war has also been impacting Canada's labour market with unemployment rising as companies lay off workers, and that is reflected in monthly jobs reports from Statistics Canada. Economic gauges like GDP and jobs reports come sometimes weeks or months after the start of a recession, which is only defined after the fact since it is based on data looking back at the previous two quarters of economic growth. There are several anecdotal theories that have been proposed to try and gauge whether a recession is happening in real time, but for the most part are considered inaccurate or outdated compared to what economists use. 2:36 Business News: Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report How severe might a recession be? Any recession that could arrive imminently is not expected to be as severe as the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 or the Great Recession from 2007-2009. Story continues below advertisement However, the severity of this recession may depend on how the federal government responds to Trump's tariffs. Caranci pointed to proposals such as the federal government's plan to spend $2 billion on an 'all in Canada' manufacturing network. The next GDP report from Statistics Canada will be released on May 30, and represent economic growth by industry for the month of March. This would also give the full GDP report for the first quarter, or three months of the year. According to TD Economics, the first quarter of 2025 is forecast to show the economy grew by 1.8 per cent, while the second quarter is expected to show a decline of one per cent, and the third quarter will decline by 0.2 per cent. That projected third-quarter decline would meet the definition of a recession, but is projected to trend back up in the fourth quarter. However, that all depends on the data — and that's just not clear yet.
Los Angeles Times
16-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Los Angeles Times
Disneyland's 70th birthday celebrates happiness
If anyone knows how to throw a birthday party, it's Disneyland. Hewing to a theme of happiness, the Anaheim resort began its year-long 70th birthday celebration on Friday with food, entertainment and fun. In the seven decades since its opening, much has evolved in Walt Disney's park that pioneered theme entertainment. Disneyland originally opened on July 17, 1955 and while park-goers will have to wait until July 17 this year for one special surprise, there are plenty of early birthday treats launching now. The original park sat on 160 acres of former orange groves and opened on a sweltering, 100 degree day. There were four original lands accessible through Main Street, U.S.A.; Fantasyland, Adventureland, Frontierland and Tomorrowland. Today, Disney has a nearly 500-acre footprint, with the addition of New Orleans Square, Mickey's Toontown, Bayou Country and Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge, plus approved plans to expand over the next few decades. Visitors hoping to learn more about Disneyland's history can join 'A Story of Celebration' guided tour. On the two-hour jaunt through the park, guests will learn about significant moments in Disneyland's past, ride original attractions like the Mark Twain Riverboat and the Disneyland Railroad, enjoy reserved parade viewing and more. The park is dressed up for the party, too. The hot pink, royal purple and cyan blue decorations throughout Disneyland, Disney California Adventure and Downtown Disney are part of a tradition David Caranci, manager of creative development at Walt Disney Imagineering, said stems from Disneyland's opening day. 'It really starts from 1955 when Walt decorated Main St. U.S.A. in red, white and blue,' said Caranci. 'We know that decor plays a huge part in the celebration and connecting our past and our future.' The decor starts outside Disneyland with a 50-foot sculpture of a contemporary interpretation of Sleeping Beauty Castle, with each of the original lands represented. The real castle inside the park has a 70th medallion on the doorway above the drawbridge and guests will find unique backdrops, perfect for photos in both parks and at Disneyland Hotel, Downtown Disney District and Disney's Grand Californian Hotel & Spa. 'We want people to step in, take pictures, take selfies and get involved,' said Caranci. 'Better Together: A Pixar Pals Celebration!' parade at Disney California Adventure also returns for the occasion, starting with a float of the iconic Pixar lamp. Eight colorful floats featuring music and characters from Pixar films like 'Turning Red,' 'Soul' and 'Up' with the parade celebrating friendship. Carthay Circle Restaurant is decked out in the 70th anniversary colors and a special projection light show, 'Celebrate Happy: A Little Bit of Magic Every Night' enhances the façade in the evening. It's set to a new song, 'Celebrate Happy,' by the Jonas Brothers, which was composed especially for the occasion. 'Happy is the message, because this is such a happy place and people come here to celebrate their happy memories; their birthdays, their graduations, their proposals,' said Tricia Holloway, Disney music executive. 'We wanted to make sure we had a song that would underscore this environment. When we approached the Jonas Brothers, they responded with a resounding 'yes.'' The song is used in different versions throughout the park and Susana Tubert, creative director of Disney live entertainment, said it is a key element to the storytelling. 'The song is acting as a needle and thread that weaves across the resort and brings the theme of the celebration to the top of mind for our guests and our cast members,' said Tubert. A new water show is debuting at Disney California Adventure for the celebration titled 'World of Color Happiness.' It highlights characters from 'Inside Out' and opening with words Walt spoke on opening day: 'To all who come to this happy place — welcome.' There is also a pre-show from the Muppets. 'The Muppets are actually celebrating their 70th anniversary as well, so we reached to our friends at the Muppets Studios and said, 'Hey, do the Muppets want to play with us?'' said Jennifer McGill, executive producer of Disney live entertainment. Nighttime parade 'Paint the Night' will return to Disneyland with more than one million LED lights plus special effects and music that references the original 'Main Street Electrical Parade' theme and of course, the new 'Celebrate Happy' song. 'Wondrous Journeys' Nighttime Spectacular is also back at Disneyland and enhanced with fireworks on select nights. ''Wondrous Journeys' premiered during the Disney 100 Celebration and we are super thrilled to bring it back,' said Tubert. 'It is an amazing opportunity to celebrate 60 animation films by Disney.' Sleeping Beauty Castle becomes a canvas for the projection show with beloved Disney characters and songs, including Baymax from 'Big Hero 6' flying overhead. Food is also part of the storytelling and the Disney culinary team is introducing more than 70 menu items for the 70th birthday. Disney chefs like Eduardo Rodriguez and Esther Alonso are presenting new and nostalgic food, including the chocolate-dipped Mickey hat cookie. 'This is a classic cookie but it's also an homage to the Mickey Mouse Club and the ears they used have back in 1955,' said Alonso. Other throwbacks include a classic banana split like those available in the park in the 1950s and other treats inspired by it, like a banana split churro, rolled in chocolate sugar with banana and vanilla sauce and a cherry on top. Red Rose Taverne will serve a mid-century classic tuna melt, with Muenster and herb-marinated tomatoes complete with a green olive on a toothpick for garnish. Apple rolled pancakes, finished with walnut streusel, and cinnamon Chantilly cream at River Belle Terrace, the chili cheese corn dog from Corn Dog Castle and chili cheese baked potato at Troubadour Tavern each represent early dishes served in the park. 'These are beautiful because they are an homage to Walt Disney himself; his favorite dish when he would go into the park was Walt's chili,' said Alonso. It wouldn't be a birthday party without cake. A 70th celebration cake will be served at the Plaza Inn, layering all of the best kinds of confection flavors in one slice with pound cake, cherry compote, confetti cake, vanilla bean white chocolate mousse and lemon curd pastry cream covered with a white chocolate ganache buttercream frosting. There is also a 70th Celebration macaron at Jolly Holiday Cafe, fashioned to look like a pink cake slice. A special surprise is planned for July 17 when the park's founder will attend the party himself in the form of a new attraction 'Walt Disney — A Magical Life,' featuring the first ever audio-animatronic figure of Walt Disney, who passed away in 1966. Using the latest form of technology Disney first created to bring Abraham Lincoln to life for 'Great Moments With Mr. Lincoln,' the Main Street Opera House will become Walt's studio office. After the initial run for the 70th celebration, 'Great Moments With Mr. Lincoln' will return playing alongside 'A Magical Life' on a rotating stage. There is a lot to do, see and taste for Disneyland's birthday, but guests have a whole year to celebrate. Now, it's time to get the party started. Disneyland Resort 70th Celebration began Friday and runs through summer 2026. For tickets and park reservations visit
Global News
13-05-2025
- Climate
- Global News
Early-season Campbell River wildfire prompts warning ahead of long weekend
An early-season wildfire in Campbell River is highlighting the already dangerous dry conditions across many parts of the province. The Woods Creek wildfire was first spotted on Sunday in an area between the Campbell River airport and Storey Creek Golf Course. 'It started out as a rank 2 fire, so it was travelling very quickly through dry brush along the ground. And when it reached certain trees … it certainly did candle up,' Kelly Bellefleur, acting director of Campbell River's municipal fire department, told Global News. 1:03 Fort St. John wildfire evacuation order lifted About 30 firefighters from the city's fire department and BC Wildfire Service were called to attack the blaze, an effort that required trucking water into the site. Story continues below advertisement 'The amount of water we wanted to use to fight this fire, to get that here in a timely fashion, does take a fair bit of work — we were shuttling water about 45 minutes away,' Bellefleur said. The fire grew to nearly 3.5 hectares before crews were able to stall its progress late Sunday. By noon on Monday, it was listed as 'under control.' Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy The cause remains under investigation, but it is suspected to have been a result of human activity, potentially an unattended campfire. There have already been 194 wildfires provincewide this year, including 22 in the coastal fire centre. 5:04 A rare look at B.C.'s worst wildfire season 'While we are a little above average, it's really early in the season for us to predict what kind of wildfire season we are going to have,' said Julia Caranci, a fire information officer for the Coastal Fire Centre. Story continues below advertisement 'At lot of that depends on the amount of spring rains received, especially in that key month of June, so that will help us determine what kind of fire season we have.' Caranci noted that April was very dry in many areas. With rapid snowmelt already triggering drought fears in many parts of the province and the fire danger rating creeping up to moderate and high on parts of Vancouver Island, the Central Interior and Northern B.C. 'As we see days without rain, that will continue to go up,' she said. 1:44 Good and bad news on B.C.'s drought, wildfire and freshet situation So far, there are no campfire bans anywhere in B.C. The only open burning bans, covering category 2 and category 3 fires, are in the Cariboo Fire Centre in Central B.C. Story continues below advertisement 'Regardless of whether we have any prohibitions in place, you need to be extremely cautious and careful when having any kind of an open fire or engaging in any kind of activity that could potentially cause a wildfire,' Caranci said. 'Most spring wildfires are human-caused, and almost all of those are preventable.' Back on Vancouver Island, Bellefleur is urging people to be vigilant anytime they're recreating in the outdoors — particularly with the Victoria Day long weekend approaching. 'It's looking like it's going to be a hot and dry summer, so we do want everyone to pay attention to any of the restrictions that are put into place,' he said. 'Be very mindful of where you are riding your machines, and more importantly, if you have any kind of fire going, cigarette, campfire, etc., be very clear that it is out before you leave.'
