03-05-2025
Federal Election 2025: Labor breaches fortress Queensland with Peter Dutton ousted
Fortress Queensland? The Coalition bastion north of the Tweed River has been breached by the Labor Party which seems set to claim the prize scalp of Peter Dutton in his outer Brisbane seat of Dickson in an election boilover.
With 67 per cent of the vote counted in Dickson, Labor's Ali France was heading the Opposition Leader by 58.75 per cent two-party preferred to Mr Dutton's 41.25 per cent. Election watchers agreed he would be hard-pressed to come back from that position, even though pre-poll votes traditionally favour the blue team.
An ALP scrutineer monitoring the count in Dickson said: 'The pre-poll is also breaking our way.'
ABC election analyst Antony Green declared at 8.41pm that Mr Dutton had lost his ultra-marginal seat, on a buffer of barely 1.7 per cent
This caps a potentially disastrous night for the Coalition, given that Queensland has been the rock on which Liberal-National Party governments have rested since John Howard's day three decades ago. Labor lost one of its then six seats in the Sunshine State at the 2022 election won under Anthony Albanese.
Leading into the 2025 federal election, Labor held only five of the state's 30 federal seats.
On current counting, it is in the mix to pick up the LNP electorates of Petries, Bonner, Bowman and Dickson in greater Brisbane, as well as Carins-based Leichhardt in north Queensland. The Greens-held seat of Brisbane and Griffith are also in play for the ALP.
Labor is particularly confident of its chances in the seat of Brisbane, where Greens MP Stephen Bates faces a third-placed finish on the primary vote count – meaning ALP candidate Madonna Jarrett would win on his preferences.
The Greens' high profile housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather is also in deep trouble in his seat of Griffith.
On current counting, Labor could lift its tally of House seats in Queensland to 13, approaching the high water mark of 15 seats achieved in the 2007 election under hometown hero Kevin Rudd.
First time Labor candidate Kara Cook is on track to win the Brisbane seat of Bonner, held by Liberal MP Ross Vasta for 18 of the past 21 years.
With 55 per cent of the vote, the former Brisbane City Councillor and lawyer has secured an 11 per cent swing to Labor, and now leads Mr Vasta by 57 per cent to 42 per cent on a two party preferred basis.
In the Liberal-held seat of Petrie, Labor's candidate Emma Comer led the two party preferred vote on 55.48 per cent to incumbent MP Luke Howarth's 44.5 per cent.
The seat was switched between Labor and the Liberals over the past two decades.
Mr Howarth, whose electorate neighbours Mr Dutton's seat of Dickson, has held Petrie since 2013.
The Cairns' based seat of Leichhardt, long held by the retiring Liberal MP Warren Entsch, is also likely to fall to Labor.
With 80 per cent of the vote counted, Labor's Matt Smith was leading Liberal candidate Jeremy Neal 58.33 per cent to 41.67 per cent, on a two party preferred basis.
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