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The Herald Scotland
30-04-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Farage and Reform have already planted seeds of their own destruction
And, despite his virtual omnipresence on the political scene, in one way or another for a generation, little was known about him. It was a surprise to me why, despite the acreage of news reporting about Farage and his party over the years, a biography had not already been written. Read more by Carlos Alba Behind his bluff straight talking and no-nonsense, anti-politician exterior, there was a complex personality, riddled with half-truths and contradictions. Throughout the media coverage, there was the same periodic gossip, from claims of him singing Nazi songs at school – which he denies – to questions about his running of his party and its finances and his complicated private life. The reason for the absence from the bookshelves, soon became clear – publishers weren't interested. People who read books had no desire to learn more about this grubby parvenu with the ubiquitous Rothmans fag and pint of warm English bitter, they insisted. Even political geeks and anoraks would not be prepared to part with the cover price for a book about a self-promoting opportunist whose time, in any case, had already passed. There was more than a hint of snobbery in their blanket rejection but, as gatekeepers to the literary world – and particularly its finances – I recognised that they knew when something would or would not fly. I have been reminded of this recently by a slew of articles predicting that, as leader of the embryonic Reform party, Farage could be the UK's next prime minister. With its current tally of just four MPs, and no leadership record at any level of government, there is a heavy sense of cart-before-the-horse in these reports. Pollsters, for their part, have taken to questioning voters about their thoughts on the likelihood of the Reform leader being the next occupant of Number 10, without providing any guiding detail as to how he might get there. Nevertheless, with the benefit of such unthinking repetition, the suggestion is slowly but surely gaining narrative traction. Propelled by noise and hot air over substance, it bears all of the same playbook hallmarks of a typical Farage campaign. From a benchmark of gaining 15% of the vote at last year's general election, Reform has progressively improved its standing in subsequent polling. The most recent activity by pollsters has the party attracting levels of support ranging from 21% to 28%. Labour, from a base of 35% last June, is now polling between 20% and 27%, while the Conservatives have recorded levels of between 20% and 25%, the latter figure down one percent on their general election showing. While opinions vary, it is estimated that Reform could form the largest party at Westminster at the next General Election, if it was able to secure at least 28% of the vote. But that presupposes that the party – and its leader – continue to maintain the same level of popularity as they currently enjoy, without any improvement from either Labour or the Conservatives. Typically, opposition parties require to be significantly ahead of the governing party to have any hope of replacing it. Reform appears to be riding high at this early stage of the electoral cycle but it is still neck-and-neck with a deeply unpopular Labour government which still has four years to improve its position. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are experiencing a low water mark under their even out-of-favour leader, Kemi Badenoch. In Scotland, the First Minister appears to have fallen into the trap of talking up the chances of Farage and Reform ahead of next year's Holyrood election. His recent convening of a summit of civic Scotland to collectively consider the threat posed by populist interlopers, has seen some commentators speculate that it may even be a counterintuitive ruse to squeeze votes from his main rivals. Whatever his motives, John Swinney risks ending up with egg on his face by lending credibility to a figure who is temperamentally and institutionally ill-equipped for a mainstream political leadership role, never mind PM. Farage hopes to emulate his role model and mentor Donald Trump, who has managed to overturn American political orthodoxy by posing as an anti-establishment outsider. Despite having the advantage of operating in a presidential system, where it is easier for a charismatic individual to exploit his or her personal appeal, Trump still had to work within the established two-party system to succeed. Nigel Farage and his supporters celebrate victory in the Brexit referendum of 2016 (Image: PA) In contrast, Farage is operating in a parliamentary system – where electors vote for constituency candidates – and he would have to upend more than a century of convention by becoming the first leader of an insurgent party to gain the largest number of seats. Even then, it is still likely that he would have to work in coalition with the Conservatives who, in agreeing such an arrangement, are aware that they would be sounding their own death-knell. But the biggest obstacle to Farage becoming PM is Farage himself and, in particular, his gargantuan ambition. Whereas Trump revels in his role as arch outsider and disruptor-in-chief, Farage has spent his career itching to be on the inside, as an integral part of the same establishment he professes to despise. While he sees his inherent reasonableness and willingness to compromise as an attribute, it is, for a politician like him, anything but. For, the point at which he begins to negotiate, bargain and deal – to soften his position as a necessary preparatory to grease his path into the office – will be when he and his party lose any semblance of their self-created identity, surrendering any advantage they currently have. The reality is that Farage, and everything he stands for, is a mirage that vanishes the moment when any attention is paid to it. There are times when voters might give the impression they admire politicians like him, that they believe his quick fixes and easy answers to complicated questions. But when they are asked to put their money where their mouth is – to put their cross on a ballot in a General Election – their interest and his snake-oil promises vanish as quickly as a hazy, vaporous image in the desert. Carlos Alba is a journalist, author, and PR consultant at Carlos Alba Media. His latest novel, There's a Problem with Dad, explores the issue of undiagnosed autism among older people
The Herald Scotland
23-04-2025
- Science
- The Herald Scotland
So we may not be alone. What does that do to religion?
While there was barely a news outlet globally that will not have reported the Pope's passing, there was another event last week that raised even more profound questions about the nature of human existence, that merited barely a flicker of attention. The discovery of gas particles on the edge of our galaxy provided the 'strongest evidence yet' of the existence of life on another planet. Read more by Carlos Alba Scientists at Cambridge University's Institute of Astronomy, using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), have detected molecules surrounding a planet named K2-18b, which on Earth are only produced by simple organisms. Their research indicates the existence of a chemical signature matching dimethyl sulphide (DMS) or dimethyl disulphide (DMDS), both of which are known by-products of marine phytoplankton and bacteria on Earth, making their discovery a potentially significant development in the search for extraterrestrial life. Professor Nikku Madhusudhan, the lead researcher, said he was surprised at the amount of the gas apparently detected in a single observation window, which is thousands of times higher than that on Earth. "If the association with life is real, then this planet will be teeming with life," he added. "If we confirm that there is life on K2-18b, it should basically confirm that life is very common in the galaxy." Before we start brushing up on our Klingon, there are some important caveats. The scientists made clear they need to collect more data to bolster their case. And, even if they do find more conclusive evidence of life on K2-18b, the planet is 700 trillion miles from Earth meaning that, even if we could travel at the speed of light, it would take us 124 years to get there. Nevertheless, the discovery has the potential to be the most important development in natural science since Darwin's Theory of Evolution. If, as Prof Madhusudhan suggests, life could be 'very common in the galaxy', it would fatally undermine the fundamental premise of every world religion, that we and this planet exist at the notional centre of the Universe, both as the creation of a higher being. Rather, it would suggest that we are a local planet, located in an insignificant corner of a Universe which potentially hosts an infinite number of other life-bearing planets. The theistic argument rests on the notion that the starting point for life could only have come from a higher intelligence. It exploits the self-imposed limits applied by science which, unlike with religion, doesn't base its findings on absolutes. Even with a level of certainty of 99.7%, Prof Madhusudhan and his team are not at the standard required to claim a discovery. For that, he and his researchers need to be about 99.99999% sure that their results are correct and not a fluke reading. Theists require nowhere near such rigour to be able to claim, for example, that Christ rose from the dead or that the prophet Muhammed was the last messenger of God. In the same week that these potentially earth-shattering findings were announced, most media outlets focused instead on the 11 minutes in space spent by six female friends, relatives, and hangers-on of the billionaire Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. It says something about our priorities and the limits of our horizons that we prefer to focus on the musings of pop singer Katy Perry – 'I felt so connected to love' – and Bezos's fiancée Lauren Sánchez – 'the Earth looked so quiet' – than on the very nature and meaning of life. While this discreditable exercise in cash-burning futility merited media exposure on a scale similar to the Pope's death, with a couple of notable exceptions coverage of the Cambridge discovery was mostly limited to specialist platforms like Space, New Scientist and Nature. While Evolution News carried the story, it was conspicuously absent from any religious publications. Granted The Tablet and the Scottish Catholic Observer had other things on their mind, but you'd have thought the news would be of some interest to such outlets, if only to stand their corner. Given the centrality of religion to so many of the world's problems and to so much bloodshed and suffering, I'm never less than surprised at the lack of questioning in common discourse of its absurdity. Aside from the current war in the Middle East and the devastation wrought by Islamic terrorism, there is the long history of sectarian violence in India and the culpability of the Catholic Church, and its stance on contraception, in the spread of AIDS in Africa – the list goes on. Much of Donald Trump's regressive policy programme – including his opposition to abortion and his ban on transgender people serving in the military – is aimed at serving an evangelical Christian electoral base. The death of Pope Francis will have prompted moments of deep introspection for many (Image: PA) His administration's heavy reliance on white Christian nationalists and prosperity gospel preachers in key positions, has raised concerns about its impact on American democracy. Both Obama and Biden included leaders from diverse faiths, including Muslims and Sikhs, in their administrations and faith-based offices. Trump, on the other hand, has surrounded himself with individuals who promote a narrow and exclusionary vision of Christianity, often associated with anti-LGBTQ+, anti-immigration, and anti-racial equality stances. Irrespective of whether K2-18b is the start of a new era of natural scientific discovery, we should, at least, be more sceptical of religion and the powerful place it occupies. In this country, we could start by insisting that religious education in schools focuses principally on fostering a neutral and objective understanding of religion as a cultural and historical phenomenon. While it's important for students to learn about different religions, this should be approached academically, similar to subjects like history or literature, rather than as an attempt to endorse or promote any specific faith. The Pope may be dead, long live enlightenment and progress. Carlos Alba is a journalist, author, and PR consultant at Carlos Alba Media. His latest novel, There's a Problem with Dad, explores the issue of undiagnosed autism among older people
