Latest news with #CarlosKuriyama
Scoop
15-05-2025
- Business
- Scoop
APEC Forecasts 2.6% Growth In 2025, Urges Action To Eliminate Trade Policy Uncertainty
Issued by the APEC Policy Support Unit Jeju, Republic of Korea, 15 May 2025 Growth in the APEC region is expected to slow sharply in 2025, as escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty weigh on investment and trade, according to a new economic report released by the APEC Policy Support Unit ahead of the Ministers Responsible of Trade Meeting in Jeju. While challenges persist, the report highlights an opportunity for member economies to strengthen cooperation and build resilience through structural reforms and open trade. Economic growth in the APEC region is forecast to moderate to 2.6 and 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2026, a sharp drop from the 3.6 percent growth recorded in 2024. This downward revision underscores the persistent weight of policy uncertainty on the regional economy, especially in areas such as trade and investment. The report also draws attention to mounting structural challenges. 'From tariff hikes and retaliatory measures to the suspension of trade facilitation procedures and the proliferation of non-tariff barriers, we are witnessing an environment that is not conducive to trade,' said Carlos Kuriyama, Director of the APEC Policy Support Unit. 'This uncertainty is hurting business confidence and leading many firms to delay investments and new product launches until the situation becomes more predictable,' Kuriyama added. The report shows that economic and trade activity across the 21 APEC member economies has slowed considerably. APEC's export volume is projected to grow by just 0.4 percent in 2025, while import volume is expected to rise by only 0.1 percent. This marks a steep decline from 2024, when export and import volumes grew by 5.7 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively. Kuriyama emphasized that rising protectionist moves and unfair trade practices—such as increased subsidies—have created an environment where firms are pausing decisions and holding back on cross-border activities. 'What worries us a lot is that all of these uncertainties could affect jobs,' he said. The report also notes that financial markets have reacted to the uncertainty. The global volatility index spiked to 52 points in April, more than triple the 2023–2024 average, while gold surged to USD3,200 per troy ounce in early May as investors fled to safe-haven assets. 'The global economic picture is highly fragile,' said Rhea C. Hernando, an analyst with the APEC Policy Support Unit. 'General government debt across APEC is projected to hit 110 percent of GDP through 2030. At the same time, we're confronting long-term demographic shifts, including a shrinking workforce and an ageing population. The fiscal and structural stress is real.' Adding to these concerns, the report highlights a rising wave of discriminatory non-tariff measures, in particular subsidies measures distorting trade. 'Fragmented and reactionary trade policies are becoming the norm,' said Glacer Vasquez, co-author of the report. 'While some economies pursue trade-facilitating reforms, these are often offset by inward-looking protectionist measures. This divergence is hampering regional cohesion.' Despite these headwinds, the report emphasizes that the current moment presents a critical opportunity for economies to work together. Kuriyama urged APEC economies to recommit to cooperation and stability. He noted that restoring confidence in trade requires not only easing tensions, but also expanding into new markets, strengthening supply chain resilience and improving transparency of trade rules and procedures. 'This is not the time to retreat behind borders. This is the time to double down on cooperation,' he concluded. 'Through collective action, APEC economies can navigate uncertainty and lay the groundwork for a more resilient, prosperous future.'
CNBC
15-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Group of 21 economies — including U.S. and China — warns of growth slowdown over trade tensions
An intergovernmental grouping of 21 economies including the United States and China warned Thursday that their collective growth risks a sharp slowdown, as tariff tensions and policy uncertainty weigh on investment and trade. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forecasts growth to drop to 2.6% in 2025, from 3.6% in the prior year. "From tariff hikes and retaliatory measures to the suspension of trade facilitation procedures and the proliferation of non-tariff barriers, we are witnessing an environment that is not conducive to trade," said Carlos Kuriyama, Director of the APEC Policy Support Unit, at a meeting in South Korea. Kuriyama also said that the uncertainty was weighing on business confidence, leading many firms to delay investments and new product launches until the situation turned "more predictable." The gathering comes at time when U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade stance and massive "reciprocal" tariffs have invited retaliatory measures from partners. While the "reciprocal" tariffs have been suspended, the environment remains fraught with uncertainty. Kuriyama noted that restoring confidence in trade requires not only easing tensions, but also actions such as strengthening supply chain resilience and improving transparency of trade rules and procedures. Comments from former and current trade officials to CNBC also echoed this view, emphasizing the importance of predictability in global trade. Former Canadian trade minister Mary Ng told "Squawk Box Asia" that what companies, entrepreneurs, and countries are looking for trade agreements that offer trading partners a certain predictability for doing business with each other. Ng was trade minister when Trump imposed 25% levies on steel and aluminum — U.S. is Canada's largest market for steel — and had sought a formal consultation with the U.S. to address tariff-related issues. "I think that all of us owe it to our economies, to our people, to our businesses, to do our level best, to create the right conditions environments, so that predictability is there, so that the rules are there, so that business can count on that and they can plan on that. That's what they look to governments to do." Malaysian Trade and Investment Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz, who welcomed the recent de-escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, emphasized on the importance of dialogue between countries. Malaysia and other ASEAN countries believe in a "rules-based multilateral trading system, he told CNBC. World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala also attended the event and urged that "there should be dialogue with the U.S. to find out why did we get where we are and what can we do about it" She cautioned about U.S.-China tensions, saying that "if the world breaks up into two global trading blocks, we could lose 7% in global GDP in the longer term."
