Latest news with #Cembalest
Reuters
11-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
JPMorgan analyst says he now tempers public comments on US tariffs
April 11 (Reuters) - A senior JPMorgan (JPM.N), opens new tab Asset Management investment strategist said he has held back on some of his public comments on U.S. tariffs due to concerns about the impact his full opinions would have on his colleagues and on the Wall Street bank. In a webinar titled "The 2025 Tariff Shock", Michael Cembalest, chair of market and investment strategy and a Wall Street veteran, said he had not been able to fully express his views on the potential impacts of the tariffs on markets and economies. In the April 7 webinar, he said the tariffs were a "kind of sledgehammer, brute force approach." Cembalest did not reference President Donald Trump directly in his remarks on holding back some of his opinions, which he made in the webinar, opens new tab posted on the bank's website. The remarks were first reported by Bloomberg News on Thursday. "This is the first time I've ever had to do a call where I had to think about the things that I was saying, not just in terms of how they reflect our views on markets and economics," Cembalest said in comments made towards the end of the webinar. "But I had to think about how they might reflect on the firm and some of its colleagues at a time when people are being held accountable for their views and the things that they say in ways that they probably shouldn't be. "So I've said most of what I wanted to say on this call but not all of it." In a statement, a JPMorgan spokesperson said: "Michael covered the goals, opportunities and risks of the administration's policies." New York-based Cembalest did not respond to requests for comment sent outside of normal regular business hours. The comments come amid a broader climate of corporate caution in the U.S. as the Trump administration signs executive orders targeting law firms, restricting their access to government officials and threatening to cancel federal contracts held by their clients. Those orders targeted firms that represented clients who have challenged Trump's policies in court, employed lawyers involved in prosecutorial investigations against Trump, or represent people who previously have investigated him. His orders have also faulted the firms for workplace diversity policies. Cembalest's comments follow an April 2 report he published entitled"Redacted: Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day", opens new tab in which large chunks of text about the tariffs were blacked out. "The next phase either involves trading partners providing sufficient concessions to the White House so that tariffs are temporary, or an escalating tariff conflict that could cause damage to the global economy," he wrote in the report. "I don't think tariffs are the only issue causing US CEO business confidence to decline. I believe the following issues are also negatively impacting CEO confidence and capital spending plans on the front lines, so let's talk about them frankly." Large parts of the next three pages of the report were then redacted with black boxes covering the text. Reuters could not immediately determine why text was redacted.
Zawya
11-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
JPMorgan analyst says he now tempers public comments on US tariffs
A senior JPMorgan Asset Management investment strategist said he has held back on some of his public comments on U.S. tariffs due to concerns about the impact his full opinions would have on his colleagues and on the Wall Street bank. In a webinar titled "The 2025 Tariff Shock", Michael Cembalest, chair of market and investment strategy and a Wall Street veteran, said he had not been able to fully express his views on the potential impacts of the tariffs on markets and economies. In the April 7 webinar, he said the tariffs were a "kind of sledgehammer, brute force approach." Cembalest did not reference President Donald Trump directly in his remarks on holding back some of his opinions, which he made in the webinar posted on the bank's website. The remarks were first reported by Bloomberg News on Thursday. "This is the first time I've ever had to do a call where I had to think about the things that I was saying, not just in terms of how they reflect our views on markets and economics," Cembalest said in comments made towards the end of the webinar. "But I had to think about how they might reflect on the firm and some of its colleagues at a time when people are being held accountable for their views and the things that they say in ways that they probably shouldn't be. "So I've said most of what I wanted to say on this call but not all of it." In a statement, a JPMorgan spokesperson said: "Michael covered the goals, opportunities and risks of the administration's policies." New York-based Cembalest did not respond to requests for comment sent outside of normal regular business hours. The comments come amid a broader climate of corporate caution in the U.S. as the Trump administration signs executive orders targeting law firms, restricting their access to government officials and threatening to cancel federal contracts held by their clients. Those orders targeted firms that represented clients who have challenged Trump's policies in court, employed lawyers involved in prosecutorial investigations against Trump, or represent people who previously have investigated him. His orders have also faulted the firms for workplace diversity policies. Cembalest's comments follow an April 2 report he published entitled "Redacted: Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day" in which large chunks of text about the tariffs were blacked out. "The next phase either involves trading partners providing sufficient concessions to the White House so that tariffs are temporary, or an escalating tariff conflict that could cause damage to the global economy," he wrote in the report. "I don't think tariffs are the only issue causing US CEO business confidence to decline. I believe the following issues are also negatively impacting CEO confidence and capital spending plans on the front lines, so let's talk about them frankly." Large parts of the next three pages of the report were then redacted with black boxes covering the text. Reuters could not immediately determine why text was redacted. (Reporting by Scott Murdoch in Sydney, additional reporting by Byron Kaye in Sydney; Editing by Sumeet Chatterjee and Sam Holmes)
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
JPMorgan analyst says he now tempers public comments on US tariffs
By Scott Murdoch (Reuters) - A senior JPMorgan Asset Management investment strategist said he has held back on some of his public comments on U.S. tariffs due to concerns about the impact his full opinions would have on his colleagues and on the Wall Street bank. In a webinar titled "The 2025 Tariff Shock", Michael Cembalest, chair of market and investment strategy and a Wall Street veteran, said he had not been able to fully express his views on the potential impacts of the tariffs on markets and economies. In the April 7 webinar, he said the tariffs were a "kind of sledgehammer, brute force approach." Cembalest did not reference President Donald Trump directly in his remarks on holding back some of his opinions, which he made in the webinar posted on the bank's website. The remarks were first reported by Bloomberg News on Thursday. "This is the first time I've ever had to do a call where I had to think about the things that I was saying, not just in terms of how they reflect our views on markets and economics," Cembalest said in comments made towards the end of the webinar. "But I had to think about how they might reflect on the firm and some of its colleagues at a time when people are being held accountable for their views and the things that they say in ways that they probably shouldn't be. "So I've said most of what I wanted to say on this call but not all of it." In a statement, a JPMorgan spokesperson said: "Michael covered the goals, opportunities and risks of the administration's policies." New York-based Cembalest did not respond to requests for comment sent outside of normal regular business hours. The comments come amid a broader climate of corporate caution in the U.S. as the Trump administration signs executive orders targeting law firms, restricting their access to government officials and threatening to cancel federal contracts held by their clients. Those orders targeted firms that represented clients who have challenged Trump's policies in court, employed lawyers involved in prosecutorial investigations against Trump, or represent people who previously have investigated him. His orders have also faulted the firms for workplace diversity policies. Cembalest's comments follow an April 2 report he published entitled "Redacted: Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day" in which large chunks of text about the tariffs were blacked out. "The next phase either involves trading partners providing sufficient concessions to the White House so that tariffs are temporary, or an escalating tariff conflict that could cause damage to the global economy," he wrote in the report. "I don't think tariffs are the only issue causing US CEO business confidence to decline. I believe the following issues are also negatively impacting CEO confidence and capital spending plans on the front lines, so let's talk about them frankly." Large parts of the next three pages of the report were then redacted with black boxes covering the text. Reuters could not immediately determine why text was redacted.
Yahoo
16-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This Wall Street pro saw the stock-market chaos coming. He says investors should wait to buy again.
When Wall Street strategists were cheering on President Trump's electoral victory and projecting another rosy year for U.S. stocks, J.P. Morgan's Michael Cembalest was taking a decidedly different tack. While others insisted that Trump's tariff threats were likely a negotiating tactic and that investors should focus on the more pro-growth elements of the president's agenda, Cembalest, the chairman of market and investment strategy for J.P. Morgan's asset- and wealth-management business JPM, advised that it would be prudent to take Trump at his word. Apple now faces a problem far bigger than tariffs or weak iPhone sales My husband has dementia and will need care. Will Medicaid go after my money if I use it to pay off our mortgage? 'He claims to be a nihilist': I told my friend to sell his Tesla shares. He stopped speaking to me. Is that normal? As stocks stumble, investors should take a lesson from the Cuban Missile Crisis, says this bull 'It's been a scary ride': My family has $800K in stocks. We lost 2 years of market gains in a few weeks. Do we sell — or buy? Otherwise, investors risked becoming collateral damage, Cembalest warned in his 2025 year-ahead outlook. Given the risks that Trump's tariffs or another aspect of his policy agenda could incite a stock-market rebellion, Cembalest recommended anticipating a correction between 10% and 15% at some point in 2025. 'They are going to break something, I just don't know what yet,' Cembalest wrote at the time about Trump and his team. The outlook was published in early January. Fast-forward to this week, and Cembalest's skepticism has proven prescient. In fact, the volatility he anticipated has materialized more quickly than even he had expected. But instead of taking a victory lap, Cembalest used the introduction to his latest report, published Wednesday, to remind readers that even somebody as powerful as the president can't control the market. 'Here's the interesting thing about the stock market: It cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded,' he said in a report published earlier this week. 'It's the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.' It will likely take time before the administration's pro-market policies, like deregulation and tax cuts, begin to resonate with investors, he added. But if stocks keep falling, Cembalest recommended starting to nibble once the S&P 500 SPX has fallen by between 12% and 15% from its Feb. 19 high. On Thursday, the S&P 500 entered correction territory for the first time since late 2023. A correction is defined as a drop of 10% or more from a recent high — in this case, the index's Feb. 19 record close. Although stocks bounced back Friday, the S&P 500 still booked its largest four-week decline since October 2022. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the U.S. economy needs to undergo a 'detox' before the long-term benefits of Trump's agenda can be realized. While he would like to believe that, trusting the administration's ability to manage the economy could be complicated for a few reasons, Cembalest said. Already, the Trump administration has pushed to create a strategic cryptocurrency reserve — an apparent effort to reward an industry that vociferously supported Trump during the campaign. And if Trump was serious about reviving U.S. manufacturing, he wouldn't be taking a hatchet to the Biden-era Chips Act. Cembalest also harkened back to Trump's favorite president, William McKinley, to highlight the potential pitfalls of the administration's approach to tariffs, which have helped spark the selloff in U.S. stocks. When they were first introduced, McKinley's tariffs were popular. But they quickly ushered in a spike in inflation, which contributed to a Republican drubbing in the 1890 midterm elections. The J.P. Morgan strategist also questioned some of Trump's rhetoric surrounding a supposed $200 billion annual U.S. subsidy to the Canadian economy. After stripping out the effect of energy imports from Canada, Cembalest pointed out that the U.S. actually runs a trade surplus with its northern neighbor. The U.S. even depends on Canada for imports of zinc, tellurium, nickel and vanadium that are critical to industry. And while the hard economic data have appeared to be holding up so far, a handful of leading indicators have been sending concerning messages. Small businesses have cut their plans for capital expenditures, according to a National Federation for Independent Business survey. Consumers' inflation expectations have shot higher. And the Institute for Supply Management's gauge for new orders, less inventories, is back in negative territory. All of these data suggest the U.S. economy could be heading for a contraction, Cembalest said. While tariffs on the auto industry in Canada and Mexico may not ultimately be applied, global levies on other auto imports are arriving at an already difficult time for the industry, he added. Production and employment has weakened recently — and there's reason to expect that it could worsen, not improve, after the tariffs. Productivity in the U.S. steel industry declined after Trump slapped tariffs on imported steel in 2018, Cembalest noted, while production saw only a modest improvement. Meanwhile, prices for washing machines sold in the U.S. rose after Trump imposed levies on the appliances in 2018. A paper cited by Cembalest calculated the collective cost to consumers for every job created due to those tariffs, and found that the public paid $817,000 per job. U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.1% to finish at 5,638.94. The Nasdaq Composite COMP gained 2.6% to close at 17,754, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA rose by 674.62 points, or 1.7%, to end at 41,488.19. 'Is it finally time to freak out?' I'm in my 50s and worried about the $650K in my 401(k). Are we now in a stock-market correction, pullback or bear market? Here are 6 charts to watch. 'My wife and I are very grateful': Our son wants to pay off our mortgage before we retire. Will this backfire? I want to leave my home to my children from my first marriage — and not to my second husband. Is that wrong? Will my second wife be able to access my money if I transfer it to my retirement account? Sign in to access your portfolio
