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Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Conservatives cheer Trump tariff pause
You could feel relief in the room of leaders from conservative organizations after President Trump said he would pause the bulk of his 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, was leading a press conference of the conservative coalition leaders advocating for the budget resolution that will advance. Ryan Ellis, president of Center for a Free Economy, told him the news — 'We've already secured a tax cut for the American people,' Ellis said, as a few people in the room responded with applause. As the leaders tried to get up to speed on the details — tariffs on China went up, and a 10 percent baseline reciprocal tariff remains — the initial reaction was positive. 'I think almost every conservative agrees that the tariffs are bad as an economic policy. Where we have a lot of disagreement is they may be good as a foreign policy, they may be good as negotiating leverage,' said Phil Kerpen, president of American Commitment. He added: 'It's a pure win that it's paused, because we'll avoid so much of the economic harm.' Norquist, though, had a more cautious response, saying that there was still potential for a 'long tariff war.' 'Maybe it's a foreign policy thing, and maybe it's successfully used as a tool — It's still disruptive, and it shows up in the stock market,' Norquist said. 'It shows up in people freezing willingness to hire or buy new things or take your thoughts. That makes what we've been talking about today moving quickly to get the entire Trump tax cut passed and made permanent … Even if we've taken the temperature down on tariffs, we still need the long-term ability of businesses to feel comfortable.' Still, the broad sense of relief was a somewhat rare public acknowledgement of the right wing opposition to Trump's tariff regime. For a conservative ecosystem built on free-market fundamentalism and a reflexive aversion to tax increases, there had been remarkably little vocal outrage about the Liberation Day tariffs that sent markets reeling. Club for Growth, for instance, made a mention of the tariffs in a March 31 memo to Capitol Hill Republicans ahead of the tariff announcement that economic volatility from tariffs could endanger their majorities in 2026 — unless, it argued, Republicans can advance 'pro-growth action' through the tax cut extension. Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts went as far as saying that reciprocal tariffs — combined with 'deregulation, tax cuts, and fiscal restraint' — 'may not please the globalist elites, but it's the right prescription to rebuild our economy and restore prosperity for the forgotten men and women of this country.' There is a clear political reason for others being much more quiet with their tariff opposition. While they are vehemently ideologically opposed to Trump's style of economic protectionism, many of the organizations on the right are banking on working with Trump to get wins on other key issues, such as the tax cuts. I had chatted with Tim Chapman, president of the Advancing American Freedom, about that dynamic in the conservative movement earlier in the day, before news of the pause. His group — which was founded by former Vice President Mike Pence — is more regularly critical of Trump and in an easier position to advocate against the tariffs, and launched a six-figure campaign against the tariffs earlier in the week. 'This is testing the limits of peoples' willingness to demonstrate fealty to Trump. And I think you're seeing people are uncomfortable with it, but they're still willing to not rock the boat,' Chapman said, adding: 'Opposing him on this, you can get significant pushback.' There also seems to be a healthy dose of not believing Trump has a faith-like commitment to keeping tariffs in place, choosing to 'trust the plan.' 'This wasn't a longer term strategy of his to keep tariffs out there. I don't think he believes that that would be good for this country,' Alfredo Ortiz, president and CEO of the Job Creators Network who was also at the press conference, told me after the tariff pause announcement. 'But as a negotiation tool, look, he did get 75 countries to come to the table within what, one week.' 'Sometimes you have to have a leap of faith and just know that a plan is out there,' Ortiz TO DEFY TRUMP: House Republicans who claim to be some of the president's strongest supporters are defying his wishes to support the Senate version of the budget resolution framework that will tee up Trump's ambitious legislative agenda, despite his very direct urging to do so. Their opposition forced Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to pull a scheduled vote on the resolution on Wednesday evening, after a large huddle with members in a room off the House floor — which lasted for longer than an hour while an unrelated vote was held open — did not result in an immediate solution to the fiscal hawks' demands. The list of holdouts outraged about the Senate's piddly levels for cuts includes many members of the House Freedom Caucus, including Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) — who once told me that 'pound for pound,' the hardline conservative group has the strongest supporters of Trump 'anywhere in Washington.' Yet in an eyebrow-raising move, Harris declined an invitation to attend an Oval Office meeting with Trump and other House Republicans on the budget resolution this week: 'Let the president spend time with people whose minds he might change. He's just not going to change my mind about this.' It's also a signal that Trump pressure alone will not be able to whip the fractious, razor-thin majority — at least not when there is substantial opposition rather than criticisms from just one or two holdouts, like with the initial House vote on its version of the budget resolution in February. Johnson and the holdouts seemed to be getting close to a solution on Wednesday night. But a major question is if there will be any repercussions from Trump over the speed bump — maybe primary threats, loss of access — unless, that is, he too wrapped up in the fallout from his tariff regime change to be bothered by the latest House GOP drama.1. Pence sat down with my colleague on Wednesday shortly after Trump announced his tariff pause. The former vice president described the second Trump administration as 'off to a good start' but called the tariffs a 'misstep.' 'I don't think the American people were voting for what would amount to the largest peacetime tax hike in American history, which, the tariffs that were announced last week, if left in place, would certainly be, and the hardship they'd place on working families and businesses large and small,' Pence said. 2. The Department of Homeland Security that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services 'will begin considering aliens' antisemitic activity on social media and the physical harassment of Jewish individuals as grounds for denying immigration benefit requests.' 3. Speaker Johnson still reads the Drudge Report: NOTUS snagged a pic of the Speaker checking the headlines during Trump's speech at the NRCC dinner Tuesday night. (Which also ended up on Drudge.) Bonus for making it to the end: Johnson as the 'This Is Fine' meme, courtesy of 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
10-04-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Conservatives cheer Trump tariff pause
You could feel relief in the room of leaders from conservative organizations after President Trump said he would pause the bulk of his 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, was leading a press conference of the conservative coalition leaders advocating for the budget resolution that will advance. Ryan Ellis, president of Center for a Free Economy, told him the news — 'We've already secured a tax cut for the American people,' Ellis said, as a few people in the room responded with applause. As the leaders tried to get up to speed on the details — tariffs on China went up, and a 10 percent baseline reciprocal tariff remains — the initial reaction was positive. 'I think almost every conservative agrees that the tariffs are bad as an economic policy. Where we have a lot of disagreement is they may be good as a foreign policy, they may be good as negotiating leverage,' said Phil Kerpen, president of American Commitment. He added: 'It's a pure win that it's paused, because we'll avoid so much of the economic harm.' Norquist, though, had a more cautious response, saying that there was still potential for a 'long tariff war.' 'Maybe it's a foreign policy thing, and maybe it's successfully used as a tool — It's still disruptive, and it shows up in the stock market,' Norquist said. 'It shows up in people freezing willingness to hire or buy new things or take your thoughts. That makes what we've been talking about today moving quickly to get the entire Trump tax cut passed and made permanent … Even if we've taken the temperature down on tariffs, we still need the long-term ability of businesses to feel comfortable.' Still, the broad sense of relief was a somewhat rare public acknowledgement of the right wing opposition to Trump's tariff regime. For a conservative ecosystem built on free-market fundamentalism and a reflexive aversion to tax increases, there had been remarkably little vocal outrage about the Liberation Day tariffs that sent markets reeling. Club for Growth, for instance, made a mention of the tariffs in a March 31 memo to Capitol Hill Republicans ahead of the tariff announcement that economic volatility from tariffs could endanger their majorities in 2026 — unless, it argued, Republicans can advance 'pro-growth action' through the tax cut extension. Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts went as far as saying that reciprocal tariffs — combined with 'deregulation, tax cuts, and fiscal restraint' — 'may not please the globalist elites, but it's the right prescription to rebuild our economy and restore prosperity for the forgotten men and women of this country.' There is a clear political reason for others being much more quiet with their tariff opposition. While they are vehemently ideologically opposed to Trump's style of economic protectionism, many of the organizations on the right are banking on working with Trump to get wins on other key issues, such as the tax cuts. I had chatted with Tim Chapman, president of the Advancing American Freedom, about that dynamic in the conservative movement earlier in the day, before news of the pause. His group — which was founded by former Vice President Mike Pence — is more regularly critical of Trump and in an easier position to advocate against the tariffs, and launched a six-figure campaign against the tariffs earlier in the week. 'This is testing the limits of peoples' willingness to demonstrate fealty to Trump. And I think you're seeing people are uncomfortable with it, but they're still willing to not rock the boat,' Chapman said, adding: 'Opposing him on this, you can get significant pushback.' There also seems to be a healthy dose of not believing Trump has a faith-like commitment to keeping tariffs in place, choosing to 'trust the plan.' 'This wasn't a longer term strategy of his to keep tariffs out there. I don't think he believes that that would be good for this country,' Alfredo Ortiz, president and CEO of the Job Creators Network who was also at the press conference, told me after the tariff pause announcement. 'But as a negotiation tool, look, he did get 75 countries to come to the table within what, one week.' 'Sometimes you have to have a leap of faith and just know that a plan is out there,' Ortiz said. I'm Emily Brooks, House leadership reporter at The Hill, here with a weekly look at the influences and debates on the right in Washington. Tell me what's on your radar: ebrooks@ DARING TO DEFY TRUMP: House Republicans who claim to be some of the president's strongest supporters are defying his wishes to support the Senate version of the budget resolution framework that will tee up Trump's ambitious legislative agenda, despite his very direct urging to do so. Their opposition forced Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to pull a scheduled vote on the resolution on Wednesday evening, after a large huddle with members in a room off the House floor — which lasted for longer than an hour while an unrelated vote was held open — did not result in an immediate solution to the fiscal hawks' demands. More on that from my colleague Mychael Schnell here. The list of holdouts outraged about the Senate's piddly levels for cuts includes many members of the House Freedom Caucus, including Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) — who once told me that 'pound for pound,' the hardline conservative group has the strongest supporters of Trump 'anywhere in Washington.' Yet in an eyebrow-raising move, Harris declined an invitation to attend an Oval Office meeting with Trump and other House Republicans on the budget resolution this week: 'Let the president spend time with people whose minds he might change. He's just not going to change my mind about this.' It's also a signal that Trump pressure alone will not be able to whip the fractious, razor-thin majority — at least not when there is substantial opposition rather than criticisms from just one or two holdouts, like with the initial House vote on its version of the budget resolution in February. Johnson and the holdouts seemed to be getting close to a solution on Wednesday night. But a major question is if there will be any repercussions from Trump over the speed bump — maybe primary threats, loss of access — unless, that is, he too wrapped up in the fallout from his tariff regime change to be bothered by the latest House GOP drama. THREE MORE THINGS… 1. Pence sat down with my colleague Brett Samuels on Wednesday shortly after Trump announced his tariff pause. The former vice president described the second Trump administration as 'off to a good start' but called the tariffs a 'misstep.' 'I don't think the American people were voting for what would amount to the largest peacetime tax hike in American history, which, the tariffs that were announced last week, if left in place, would certainly be, and the hardship they'd place on working families and businesses large and small,' Pence said. 2. The Department of Homeland Security announced that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services 'will begin considering aliens' antisemitic activity on social media and the physical harassment of Jewish individuals as grounds for denying immigration benefit requests.' 3. Speaker Johnson still reads the Drudge Report: NOTUS snagged a pic of the Speaker checking the headlines during Trump's speech at the NRCC dinner Tuesday night. (Which also ended up on Drudge.) Bonus for making it to the end: Johnson as the 'This Is Fine' meme, courtesy of AI. Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think: ebrooks@
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The New Republican Budget Plan Is Unserious
Serious problems should be met with serious solutions. We have serious problems, namely a fast-growing debt and a need to extend some tax cuts in an unforgiving environment where interest rates are high and inflation is rising again. Unfortunately, despite a new mandate, House Republicans have yet to rise to the occasion. Their latest budget blueprint shows that fiscal responsibility vanishes the moment real choices arise. As a reminder, government debt stands at 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It will grow to 117 percent by 2034 if the tax cuts are allowed to expire as scheduled this year. It was 76.5 percent when the cuts were first passed in 2017. For those wondering why deficits and debt have accumulated so much, here are some more numbers. According to Center for a Free Economy President Ryan Ellis, since 2017, tax revenues have grown by 58 percent, while spending has grown by 75 percent. These hikes weren't driven by inflation alone, which increased by 31 percent cumulatively over the period. As Ellis rightly notes, we can't blame taxpayers. The fault lies squarely with politicians' spending incontinence. Enter the House Republican budget blueprint for a "big beautiful bill" as requested by the president. As the Committee for a Responsible Budget explains, "the budget resolution's instructions include a net $3.3 trillion in allowable deficit increases—or nearly $4 trillion including interest in additional debt by 2034." It also raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. Basically, we're talking about offsetting as much as $4.8 trillion—mostly for tax cut extensions—with only $1.5 trillion in supposed spending reductions. The plan projects that additional tax revenue from economic growth will temper the debt impact. While I've touted the potential for some tax cut extensions to boost economic growth, this is a case of wishful thinking by Republicans. In part, it's because the plan relies on the same kinds of budget gimmicks and unrealistic assumptions we've seen before, like counting on Congress to deliver on large future spending cuts to discretionary spending and Medicaid. It's not as if there isn't lots to cut—there is, especially considering the unhinged government expansions of the last four years—but it remains politically tough. As the Manhattan Institute's Jessica Riedl notes, achieving the assumed level of cuts in the plan would require Congress to deliver the lowest discretionary spending share of GDP since the 1930s while simultaneously increasing defense and border security spending. Why would we expect Congress to have the stomach for that? Many Republicans are putting their faith in Elon Musk's cost cutting, but it's not enough. Much of what needs to happen requires Congress, which apparently prefers to once again kick the can down the road. The blueprint makes other questionable assumptions. I doubt we'll find $2.6 trillion in extra revenue from a highly improbable 2.8 percent annual GDP growth rate, considering the approximately 1.8 percent growth baseline. Yes, extending the provision allowing businesses to quickly and fully deduct the cost of their investments would have a powerful, positive impact on growth. However, many of the other tax provisions have little growth oomph. In addition, there are plenty of headwinds that will hamper growth, such as the increase of the debt itself and the uncertainty created by a president who spends his time threatening trading partners with ever more tariffs. There's real risk that inflation may pick up again, in part because previous fiscal decadence has led to enormous interest payments on the debt, which has serious ripple effects. If Republicans decide to extend taxes without any concern for adding to the debt, they will contribute to the problem. And indeed, it looks like that's what they are setting out to do. The saddest part is that this version of the plan will be better than whatever bargained budget congressional Republicans can get across the finish line—especially after caving to those who want to eliminate revenue savers from the 2017 tax reform, such as the limits put on the state and local tax deduction. I get it: Governing is hard, so legislators tout savings and revenue that may never materialize. But glossy narratives do nothing to fix the nation's daunting debt trajectory, and budgets like this latest one push us closer to crisis. Without difficult structural reforms, debt will continue to mount, forcing harsher choices later. To capitalize on their opportunity, Republicans must confront reality. So stop the charade and cut both discretionary spending and the growth of runaway entitlement spending. And cut any unfair tax loopholes that prevent us from paying for a slightly more modest government. COPYRIGHT 2025 The post The New Republican Budget Plan Is Unserious appeared first on
