Latest news with #CentreforEnvironmentalPolicy
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Report: Climate change made April flooding, severe storms 9% more intense
Farm equipment is seen partially submerged on a flooded field in Ridgely, Tenn. on April 9, 2025. (Photo: Cassandra Stephenson) The effects of climate change made severe flooding that inundated West Tennessee and parts of the Central Mississippi River Valley in early April about 9% more intense, according to an analysis published Thursday by an international team of environmental researchers. From April 3 through April 6, thunderstorms and torrential downpours hovered over a broad swath of the Mississippi River Valley, leading to near-record breaking floods, widespread damage and at least 15 deaths. Those four days of rainfall are the heaviest recorded for the region in spring since 1950, according to the report published by World Weather Attribution, an international collaboration that analyzes the potential influence of climate change on extreme weather events. The study used observational data, historical records and climate models to examine how warming temperatures impact storm likelihood and intensity. Researchers also used nonprofit Climate Central's Ocean Climate Shift Index tool — based on observations and climate model data — to analyze sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico where much of the moisture fueling the storm originated, said Ben Clarke, a researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. Researchers compared how this type of weather event has changed between today's climate — about 1.3 degrees Celsius hotter due to warming caused by use of fossil fuels and deforestation — compared to a cooler, pre-industrial climate (1850-1900). 'When we combine the evidence, we do find an overall increasing trend in such extremes,' Clarke said. 'Similar events have become, we estimate, about 40% more likely, or, equivalently, about 9% more intense.' Clarke noted that some climate models used in the study showed a more 'mixed picture' of the effects of warmer temperatures, meaning the study's results are 'likely a conservative estimate.' While the methods used in this study are peer-reviewed, the study itself was released in the immediate aftermath of the severe weather event and has not yet been peer-reviewed itself, Clarke said. Over four days in early April, eight states saw 'relentless amounts of rain' ranging from six to 12 inches, with some locations exceeding 16 inches, Climate Central Weather and Climate Engagement Specialist Shel Winkley said. The rain fell on soil that was already saturated from late-winter rain, particularly in the Ohio River Valley, he said. In Northwest Tennessee, the small town of Rives suffered severe flooding in February, only to flood again a few weeks later. Winkley said a ridge of high pressure over the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida blocked the low pressure system producing the storm from pushing forward, essentially stalling the storm front to dump rainfall over the already-saturated ground. Early warnings from the National Weather Service very likely saved lives, Bernadette Woods-Placky, Climate Central's chief meteorologist, said. In Obion County, Tennessee, more than 100 families evacuated their homes during the event. Nearby Dyer County issued a mandatory evacuation for residents of Bogota on April 7 in anticipation of additional flooding. Woods-Placky noted that layoffs and firings were beginning to roll out in National Weather Service offices across the U.S. as part of cost-cutting measures under the Trump administration around the time these floods were happening. 'This is an example of how critical these employees are and why recent workforce cuts risk undermining their ability to keep people safe and prepared,' she said. Winkley said post-storm analyses like this are vital for protecting public safety in future events. 'It helps us really understand, is this going to be a place that's livable in the future, and if it is, how do we make sure that it's livable and safe?' he said. The 96-hour rain event was the second-highest on record for the Obion, Forked Deer and Loosahatchie Rivers (all Mississippi River tributaries), according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Dyersburg, Tennessee — the county seat of Dyer County — is prone to flooding from the North Fork of the Forked Deer River. Early April's flooding marked the third-highest flood in the town's history, according to Mayor John Holden, who has held the position for 19 years. The worst flood in Dyersburg's history occurred in 2010, wiping out multiple homes and trailer parks. The second-highest flood record was set in 1937. Historical data indicates downpours like this are 'expected to occur, on average, about once a century in today's climate with 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming,' the report states. Before the storms rolled in, the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center warned the public of 'generational' rainfall totals. But the study's authors caution that further warming could increase the likelihood that these events will no longer be expected just once in a generation. 'If warming reaches 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit), which is expected by 2100 under current policies, four-day spells of rainfall are expected to become a further 7% more intense and twice as likely,' according to a study summary. 'This is a good moment to remember that we are a water planet, and a warmer atmosphere forces more evaporation, so our atmosphere in general has more water to come down whenever there's a trigger, wherever there's a trigger,' Woods-Placky said. 'So that's why we're seeing an overall increase in heavy rain events, even to places that may not be getting wetter. The distribution of how they're getting rain is coming in these heavier buckets.' Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas were hardest hit by the early April storms, and each state requested a major disaster declaration to access FEMA assistance. Damage estimates for public property and recovery in West and Middle Tennessee exceed $26 million, according to post-storm assessments. State and local officials believe this will meet the eligibility threshold for federal public aid. Tennessee has yet to receive a decision from the Trump administration. The administration approved a major disaster declaration for Kentucky on April 24. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Sanders requested a major disaster declaration to cover the April storms on May 3. Trump denied Sanders' earlier request for major disaster aid following storms and tornadoes in March. West Tennessee picks up pieces, awaits FEMA decision after severe storms The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency estimates around 300 homes and 14 businesses or nonprofits were severely damaged. West Tennessee mayors report hundreds of acres of flooded farmland. To illustrate the significance of the storm's 9% higher intensity that the study attributes to climate change, Imperial College London Centre for Environmental Policy Senior Climate Science Lecturer Friederike Otto refers to a separate study on Hurricane Helene. That study, published by the Grantham Institute of Climate Change and the Environment in 2024, estimated that a roughly 11% increase in wind speed due to climate change accounted for about 44% of the storm's damage in coastal Florida. Essentially, Otto said, the increase in intensity by 10% could nearly double the cost of damage. 'If that hits you (the region) once in a lifetime, I mean … that's one thing,' Otto said. 'But if that hits you twice, and it has the higher impact, that completely changes what … extreme weather can mean for a community.' SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
Malay Mail
01-05-2025
- Climate
- Malay Mail
Climate change made fire conditions twice as likely in South Korea blazes, study finds
SEOUL, May 1 — Human-induced climate change made the ultra-dry and warm conditions that fanned South Korea's deadliest wildfires in history this March twice as likely and more intense, researchers said Thursday. Vast swaths of the country's south-east were burned in a series of blazes in March, which killed 31 people and destroyed historic sites, including a some thousand-year-old temple site. The affected area had been experiencing below-average rainfall for months and was then hit by strong winds, local officials said, following South Korea's hottest year on record in 2024. The hot, dry and windy conditions that fed the flames were 'twice as likely and about 15 per cent more intense' due to human-caused climate change, said World Weather Attribution, a scientific network that studies the influence of global warming on extreme weather. 'South Korea's deadliest wildfires were made much more likely by climate change,' said Clair Barnes, a WWA researcher from the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London. Officials said at the time that the conditions made it very hard for conventional firefighting methods to control the blazes, which leapt from pine tree to pine tree across dried-out hillsides. 'These unprecedented conditions exposed the limits of even well-developed suppression systems,' WWA said in a report of its findings. 'With fires increasingly likely to exceed control capacity, the emphasis must shift toward proactive risk reduction,' it added. More than 62 per cent of South Korea is covered in forest, the report said, with dense tree cover especially prominent along the eastern coast and in mountainous regions, landscapes that significantly influence how wildfires spread. Around 11 per cent of South Korea's forested areas border human settlements, the study said. 'These areas are particularly susceptible to ignition and have accounted for nearly 30 per cent of wildfires recorded between 2016 and 2022.' The researchers' findings were most conclusive regarding the increased likelihood of fire weather — which is measured by the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDWI) — and higher maximum temperatures. But they found no attributable link between climate change and rainfall levels during the period surrounding the fires. Fires rage South Korea has few energy resources of its own and relies on imported coal — a cheap but dirty fuel — for around a third of the electricity powering it, according to figures from the International Energy Agency. The inferno in March also laid bare the country's demographic crisis and regional disparities, as rural areas are both underpopulated and disproportionately home to senior citizens. Many of the dead were seniors, and experts have warned that it will be hard for people to rebuild their lives in the burn zone. In the weeks and months since, South Korea has recorded a string of wildfires. In April, helicopters were deployed to contain a wildfire within the DMZ, the buffer zone separating the South from nuclear-armed North Korea. This week, more than 2,000 people were forced to evacuate after wildfires occurred in parts of the south-eastern city of Daegu, after a blaze broke out on Mount Hamji in the region. WWA is a pioneer in attribution science, which uses peer-reviewed methods to quickly assess the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events. This allows a comparison of observations from today's climate, with some 1.3°Celsius of warming, against computer simulations that consider the climate before humanity started burning fossil fuels in the 1800s. — AFP
Malay Mail
01-05-2025
- Climate
- Malay Mail
Climate change made fire conditions twice as likely in South Korea blazes: study
SEOUL, May 1 — Human-induced climate change made the ultra-dry and warm conditions that fanned South Korea's deadliest wildfires in history this March twice as likely and more intense, researchers said Thursday. Vast swaths of the country's south-east were burned in a series of blazes in March, which killed 31 people and destroyed historic sites, including a some thousand-year-old temple site. The affected area had been experiencing below-average rainfall for months and was then hit by strong winds, local officials said, following South Korea's hottest year on record in 2024. The hot, dry and windy conditions that fed the flames were 'twice as likely and about 15 per cent more intense' due to human-caused climate change, said World Weather Attribution, a scientific network that studies the influence of global warming on extreme weather. 'South Korea's deadliest wildfires were made much more likely by climate change,' said Clair Barnes, a WWA researcher from the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London. Officials said at the time that the conditions made it very hard for conventional firefighting methods to control the blazes, which leapt from pine tree to pine tree across dried-out hillsides. 'These unprecedented conditions exposed the limits of even well-developed suppression systems,' WWA said in a report of its findings. 'With fires increasingly likely to exceed control capacity, the emphasis must shift toward proactive risk reduction,' it added. More than 62 per cent of South Korea is covered in forest, the report said, with dense tree cover especially prominent along the eastern coast and in mountainous regions, landscapes that significantly influence how wildfires spread. Around 11 per cent of South Korea's forested areas border human settlements, the study said. 'These areas are particularly susceptible to ignition and have accounted for nearly 30 per cent of wildfires recorded between 2016 and 2022.' The researchers' findings were most conclusive regarding the increased likelihood of fire weather — which is measured by the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDWI) — and higher maximum temperatures. But they found no attributable link between climate change and rainfall levels during the period surrounding the fires. Fires rage South Korea has few energy resources of its own and relies on imported coal — a cheap but dirty fuel — for around a third of the electricity powering it, according to figures from the International Energy Agency. The inferno in March also laid bare the country's demographic crisis and regional disparities, as rural areas are both underpopulated and disproportionately home to senior citizens. Many of the dead were seniors, and experts have warned that it will be hard for people to rebuild their lives in the burn zone. In the weeks and months since, South Korea has recorded a string of wildfires. In April, helicopters were deployed to contain a wildfire within the DMZ, the buffer zone separating the South from nuclear-armed North Korea. This week, more than 2,000 people were forced to evacuate after wildfires occurred in parts of the south-eastern city of Daegu, after a blaze broke out on Mount Hamji in the region. WWA is a pioneer in attribution science, which uses peer-reviewed methods to quickly assess the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events. This allows a comparison of observations from today's climate, with some 1.3°Celsius of warming, against computer simulations that consider the climate before humanity started burning fossil fuels in the 1800s. — AFP
France 24
30-04-2025
- Climate
- France 24
Climate change made fire conditions twice as likely in South Korea blazes: study
Vast swaths of the country's southeast were burned in a series of blazes in March, which killed 31 people and destroyed historic sites, including a some thousand-year-old temple site. The affected area had been experiencing below-average rainfall for months and was then hit by strong winds, local officials said, following South Korea's hottest year on record in 2024. The hot, dry and windy conditions that fed the flames were "twice as likely and about 15 percent more intense" due to human-caused climate change, said World Weather Attribution, a scientific network that studies the influence of global warming on extreme weather. "South Korea's deadliest wildfires were made much more likely by climate change," said Clair Barnes, a WWA researcher from the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London. Officials said at the time that the conditions made it very hard for conventional firefighting methods to control the blazes, which leapt from pine tree to pine tree across dried-out hillsides. "These unprecedented conditions exposed the limits of even well-developed suppression systems," WWA said in a report of its findings. "With fires increasingly likely to exceed control capacity, the emphasis must shift toward proactive risk reduction," it added. More than 62 percent of South Korea is covered in forest, the report said, with dense tree cover especially prominent along the eastern coast and in mountainous regions, landscapes that significantly influence how wildfires spread. Around 11 percent of South Korea's forested areas border human settlements, the study said. "These areas are particularly susceptible to ignition and have accounted for nearly 30 percent of wildfires recorded between 2016 and 2022." The researchers' findings were most conclusive regarding the increased likelihood of fire weather -- which is measured by the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDWI) -- and higher maximum temperatures. But they found no attributable link between climate change and rainfall levels during the period surrounding the fires. Fires rage South Korea has few energy resources of its own and relies on imported coal -- a cheap but dirty fuel -- for around a third of the electricity powering it, according to figures from the International Energy Agency. The inferno in March also laid bare the country's demographic crisis and regional disparities, as rural areas are both underpopulated and disproportionately home to senior citizens. Many of the dead were seniors, and experts have warned that it will be hard for people to rebuild their lives in the burn zone. In the weeks and months since, South Korea has recorded a string of wildfires. In April, helicopters were deployed to contain a wildfire within the DMZ, the buffer zone separating the South from nuclear-armed North Korea. This week, more than 2,000 people were forced to evacuate after wildfires occurred in parts of the southeastern city of Daegu, after a blaze broke out on Mount Hamji in the region. WWA is a pioneer in attribution science, which uses peer-reviewed methods to quickly assess the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events.
USA Today
29-01-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
'Hotter, drier, and more flammable': Scientists say climate change fueled LA fires
A rapid analysis of the devastating Los Angeles County wildfires concluded that while climate change didn't directly cause the fires, it intensified dangerous conditions and made the fires more likely. In a report released by World Weather Attribution on Tuesday evening, a group of 32 international researchers used its peer-reviewed rapid assessment method to evaluate how climate change fueled the firestorm. The two largest blazes, the Palisades and Eaton fires, killed 29 people, torched more than 40,000 acres and destroyed more than 16,000 structures. The still unidentified ignition sources that sparked the blazes brought together a hazardous set of conditions all at once, said Park Williams, a professor in the geography department at the University of California Los Angeles. That included more extreme than usual Santa Ana winds, a delayed start to the rainy season, and an abundance of dried out plants and shrubs that had grown vigorously from rainier-than-normal conditions over each of the the two previous years. Climate change amplified those conditions, Williams said. In effect, it was like someone flipped on four light switches all at once and "climate change is making the light brighter." A fire weather index showed the strong winds and incredibly dry conditions that led to the fires have been made about 35% more likely than they would have been in the late 1800s, when average temperatures were about two degrees cooler than in the current climate, said Clair Barnes, a World Weather Attribution researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at the Imperial College London. 'The next Maui could be anywhere':Hawaii tragedy points to US wildfire vulnerability A prolonged dry season like the one that occurred between October and December is now about 80% more likely, Barnes said. Researchers also concluded the length of California's dry season has increased by about 23 days. This means the dry season and the warm Santa Ana winds that spread fires are increasingly overlapping, the authors stated. 'Drought conditions are more frequently pushing into winter, increasing the chance a fire will break out during strong Santa Ana winds that can turn small ignitions into deadly infernos," the study reported. Although pieces of the analysis are accompanied by degrees of uncertainty, the researchers said the trends all point in the same direction ‒ that climate change increased the likelihood of the fires. 'Without a faster transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, California will continue to get hotter, drier, and more flammable," Barnes stated. World Weather Attribution pointed out that climate change is having a similar influence on wildfires in many regions of the world, as hot, dry conditions increase the risks. Both the Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire, which started on Jan. 7, are now more than 95% contained, according to the Los Angeles County Fire Department and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. So far, the ignition sources behind the two fires have not been identified. Power lines and wildfires:Experts say communities can be better protected, at a high cost The report's authors made two other points regarding potential factors blamed for wildfires. Once the fires reached into neighborhoods, putting out the blazes grew even more challenging because the community's water infrastructure, such as the fire hydrant system, is designed for routine structural fires and not the sort of unprecedented and continuous needs posed by these fast-moving fires, said Roop Singh, a climate risk advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, based in The Netherlands. "As the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions increases with climate change," she said, communities will need more robust water systems to carry more water farther. The dramatic switch between wetter-than-normal weather to drier-than-normal conditions is a phenomenon becoming more extreme in the warming climate, the report's authors said Tuesday. Calling it weather whiplash, the report refers to a study published in the journal Nature Reviews the same week the fires began, led by Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA and the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. Swain has said the "hydroclimate whiplash" in California has increased fire risk twofold: "First, by greatly increasing the growth of flammable grass and brush in the months leading up to fire season, and then by drying it out to exceptionally high levels with the extreme dryness and warmth that followed." Evidence shows this whiplash has "already increased due to global warming," Swain said, "and further warming will bring about even larger increases." Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She's been writing about wildfires since the Florida firestorm of 1998. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on X or Bluesky.
