Latest news with #CentreforNearEarthObjectStudies
NDTV
9 hours ago
- Science
- NDTV
'City-Killer' Asteroid May Hit Moon, Hurl Deadly Debris Toward Earth
NASA scientists now believe that asteroid 2024 YR4, once thought to pose a slight threat to Earth, may instead collide with the Moon in the coming years. New calculations suggest a 4.3% chance of impact in 2031. First detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in Hawaii, YR4 passed close to Earth just two days earlier. It orbits the Sun every four years. Recent observations in May 2025 from the James Webb Space Telescope estimate the asteroid's size between 174 and 220 feet (53-67 metres), roughly the height of a 10-storey building or the wingspan of a Boeing 747. Earlier estimates ranged from 131 to 295 feet. Data from NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory indicate the likelihood of the asteroid hitting the Moon has steadily risen from 1.7% in February to 3.8% in April, and now to 4.3%. If it does impact the Moon, it's expected to strike the near side, offering a rare chance for scientists to observe crater formation in real time. For now, YR4 is too distant to be tracked by telescopes. It will next approach Earth again in December 2028. "While an Earth impact by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 has now been ruled out, it continues to have a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time," the researchers wrote in their preliminary report, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is considered rare, once holding over a 1% impact probability-an extremely unusual threat level. NASA data suggests such an event would occur roughly once in 1,000 years. It's been compared to asteroid Apophis, which once ranked Level 4 on the Torino scale. Apophis will pass close to Earth in 2029, offering a rare visual encounter.
Euronews
30-01-2025
- Science
- Euronews
A newly spotted asteroid has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032
A newly discovered asteroid has a tiny chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according to space agency officials. Scientists put the odds of a strike at slightly more than 1 per cent. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 per cent chance it will miss," said Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies, on Wednesday. 'But it deserves attention'. First spotted last month by a telescope in Chile, the near-Earth asteroid – designated 2024 YR4 – is estimated to be 130 to 330 feet (40 to 100 metres) across. Scientists are keeping a close watch on the space rock, which is currently heading away from Earth. As the asteroid's path around the sun becomes better understood, Chodas and others said there's a good chance the risk to Earth could drop to zero. The asteroid will gradually fade from view over the next few months, according to NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). Until then, some of the world's most powerful telescopes will keep monitoring it to better determine its size and path. Once out of sight, it won't be visible until it passes our way again in 2028. The asteroid came closest to Earth on Christmas Day – passing within roughly 800,000 kilometres of Earth, about twice the distance of the moon. It was discovered two days later. Chodas said scientists are poring over sky surveys from 2016 when predictions show the asteroid also ventured close. If scientists can find the space rock in images from then, they should be able to determine whether it will hit or miss the planet, he told The Associated Press. 'If we don't find that detection, the impact probability will just move slowly as we add more observations,' he said. Earth gets clobbered by an asteroid this size every few thousand years, according to ESA, with the potential for severe damage. That's why this one now tops ESA's asteroid risk list. The potential impact would occur on December 22, 2032. It's much too soon to know where it might land if it did hit Earth. The good news, according to NASA, is that for now, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1 per cent.
