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Economic Times
a day ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty's 25,000 dilemma: Stuck in a 1,000-point range for 19 sessions, Will the index break free?
What's stopping bulls? Live Events Potential trend breakers Q4FY25 3 tailwinds to watch out for How to trade? (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel India's benchmark Nifty index rallied sharply from a low of 21,744 to hit a 2025 high of 25,116 — a gain of 3,372 points or 16%. However, since then, it has remained stuck in a narrow 1,000-point range, struggling to sustain a breakout above the 25,000 mark. Experts caution that this sideways phase could persist amid ongoing market May 9, 2025, Nifty has been fluctuating between 24,000 and 25,000, closing slightly above 25,000 only on a few occasions. The last time it ended above that level was on May 15, when it closed at 25, on Nifty's failure to break this logjam for the past 19 sessions, Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research, Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking, said that Nifty is facing a strong resistance around the 25,050 mark and has continued to consolidate within a narrow range. Jain sees the overall outlook as positive as long as the index holds above the 200-DMA, which is currently placed at 24, Jonagadla, smallcase Manager and Founder at Quantace Research, attributes this to the positioning of CALL and PUT writers in the options chain. "The weight of positioning in the options still favours more sideways drift. The June 26 monthly [monthly expiry] book shows the heaviest pins at 24,000 PE (72,500 lots, 5.4 million shares) and 25,000 CE (69,400 lots, 5.2 million shares). Writers on both strikes collect the maximum theta if Nifty dies somewhere between them, so every intraday push is rapidly hedged back toward the 24,600-24,800 gamma valley where their net exposure is flattest," he India VIX at 15.8, down from 18.1 seen last Thursday, there is little premium to tempt long volume traders into forcing a break, he expects Nifty to oscillate within the 24,000–25,100 range with multiple support levels starting at 24,500, followed by 24, concurred with the view expecting Nifty to move between 24,000 and 25,000 corridor through the June month, arguing consolidation would continue 'unless we see a decisive migration of open interest above 25,000—or a macro shock that jars volatility'.But if Nifty has to cross this hurdle, tech and auto stocks have to fire, opines IT sector carries 11.3% weight in Nifty and is only second to the financial stocks. The Nifty IT index has corrected 1.4% in the past one week, more than the former's decline of 0.5%.After the US-China struck a tariff deal agreeing to a 90-day pause on May 12, IT stocks rallied strongly helping Nifty to sustain above the 24,000 mark. Notwithstanding the past one week's losses, it is still trading 3% up over a 1-month period, outperforming Nifty's 1.1% Nifty Auto is down 0.5% over the past week and with nearly 5% returns in the last month, it has outperformed the broader Nifty index. With a weight of 7.15%, it is the fourth biggest contributor in expectations from both these sectors are more 'meaningful'. 'A decisive breakout will likely require support from IT stocks in the sessions ahead,' he on the other hand, is convinced that a sector mix would push Nifty decisively beyond 25,000. "Domestic defensives and rate-sensitives rather than the heavyweight banks now catching their breath. Non-bank financials—large NBFCs and life insurers—should lead the charge," he added. FMCG and consumption stocks must also throw their weights around, he opined.'Pharma also offers an additional tailwind with slightly weaker rupee which cushions export realisations just as regulatory clearance rates normalise, while sector valuations remain at a discount to long-term averages,' he further global factors count, earnings remain the most important factor for the market's delivered a fourth successive quarter of single-digit net profit growth since the pandemic of 2020 at 3%, according to estimates by Motilal Oswal. Though they were better than 2%, expected by this broad-based analysis reveals 13 sectors exceeding expectations in the 4QFY25 corporate earnings, showcasing widespread outperformance across aggregates. RBI policy: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to slash repo rate by another 25 bps on Friday, making it third in a row. This could be a positive trigger for rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and auto.A record May GST haul and forecasts of an above-normal monsoon both feed rural demand and bolster urban discretionary spending, keeping top-line momentum intact even if global growth wobbles, Jonagadla of Quantace macros: Jonagadla sees Indian macros as supportive but not catalytic. "Q4 GDP surprise at 7.4 %, May GST receipts set a Rs 2.01-lakh-crore record, and a 10-year G-Sec yield just above 7 % signals an RBI easing bias," he model portfolio stance remains unchanged, with a distinct bias towards large-caps and domestic plays, given the current volatile backdrop. 'We are OW (overweight) on BFSI, consumer discretionary, industrials, healthcare, IT and telecom while we are underweight on Oil & Gas, cement, automobiles, real estate and metals," MOFSL said that a bullish signal has emerged with a golden crossover, as the 50-DMA has moved above the 200-DMA. A 'buy on dips' strategy is advisable.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Economic Times
29-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Sensex, Nifty struggle despite Asian gains. Here's why Trump tariff verdict fails to lift mood
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Here are top factors that are weighing market sentiments: Monthly expiry Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tariff impact Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Indian headline indices BSE Sensex and Nifty started Thursday with a gap up but soon slipped lower. This occurred despite strong gains in Asian markets after a U.S. federal court blocked President Donald Trump's proposal to impose heavy tariffs on imports from nearly all hitting the day's high of 24,889, Nifty plunged over 200 points to hit the day's low of 24,677 while the 30-stock Sensex fell to 81,107 following the highs of 81,816 it made in the initial major Asian indices like the Japanese Nikkei surged 711 points or nearly 2% in the intraday trade while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 300 points or 1.3%. China's Shanghai Composite index was higher by 0.70% around 1 pm India time, while South Korea's Kospi also traded 2% experts attributed this lackluster trade to two primary reasons while conceding that the domestic markets are under consolidation with a broader trend towards the positive Palviya, Senior Vice President, Research-Head Technical & Derivatives at Axis Securities, said that the markets have given up their initial gains amid selling pressure because of monthly expiry. He said that markets fell amid call writing and adjustments being said that the broader trend remains positive and markets will likely gain from the next session. 'Index is subdued but action is happening in the mid and smallcap stocks,' he Nifty Midcap 100 was up 0.30% while the Nifty Smallcap 100 was half-a-percentage point a similar sentiment, Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking said Indian markets have been under consolidation for the past 2-3 sessions. He said that monthly expiry is the reason behind today's lackluster trade and the long term trend remains ongoing trade negotiations between India and the U.S., the impact of a Federal court blocking Trump's tariff decisions will have a limited impact on India, two experts said."India was comparatively less impacted than its Asian peers from the outset, as the higher tariff rates were primarily imposed on other countries. Furthermore, news of favorable trade discussions between the U.S. and India helped ease concerns about a significant impact on Indian exports to the U.S. These factors may explain why Indian markets have not shown any major reaction to the recent U.S. court ruling on tariffs," Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President - Research at Religare Broking Indian markets are in a consolidation phase, said Aamar Deo Singh, Senior Vice President-Equity, Commodity & Currency at Angel One opining that the U.S. federal court's decision will have a limited impact on India.'We still have to set-up manufacturing capabilities to first come to the level where we become large exporters,' he metal sector held its ground firmly on the D-Street, with the Nifty Metal index jumping by 1.5%. Barring APL Apollo Tubes, the other 14 stocks were trading in the green, jumping up to 10%. Lloyds Metals And Energy, Jindal Stainless, Hindustan Zinc, Jindal Steel & Power, Tata Steel, NMDC, Hindustan Copper, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), JSW Steel, Adani Enterprises, National Aluminium Company (NALCO) and Hindalco Industries were up between 3% and 0.12%.Welspun was the top gainer, jumping by 10% in the day's trade. The company had announced its earnings on Wednesday where the company reported 143% surge in its Q4FY25 net profit. SAIL , too, reported its earnings on Wednesday, reporting an 11% growth in its Q4 PAT.A three-judge panel of the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump overstepped his authority when he invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to declare a national emergency and justify the sweeping tariffs overturned decades of US trade policy, disrupted global commerce, rattled financial markets and raised the risk of higher prices and recession in the United States and around the Read: Turnaround stocks: IFCI, Shree Renuka Sugars among six BSE 500 stocks to swing to profit in Q4 (Inputs from Agencies)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
29-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Sensex, Nifty struggle despite Asian gains. Here's why Trump tariff verdict fails to lift mood
The Indian headline indices BSE Sensex and Nifty started Thursday with a gap up but soon slipped lower. This occurred despite strong gains in Asian markets after a U.S. federal court blocked President Donald Trump's proposal to impose heavy tariffs on imports from nearly all countries. After hitting the day's high of 24,889, Nifty plunged over 200 points to hit the day's low of 24,677 while the 30-stock Sensex fell to 81,107 following the highs of 81,816 it made in the initial trade. However, major Asian indices like the Japanese Nikkei surged 711 points or nearly 2% in the intraday trade while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 300 points or 1.3%. China's Shanghai Composite index was higher by 0.70% around 1 pm India time, while South Korea's Kospi also traded 2% higher. Market experts attributed this lackluster trade to two primary reasons while conceding that the domestic markets are under consolidation with a broader trend towards the positive side. Here are top factors that are weighing market sentiments: Monthly expiry Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President, Research-Head Technical & Derivatives at Axis Securities, said that the markets have given up their initial gains amid selling pressure because of monthly expiry. He said that markets fell amid call writing and adjustments being made. He said that the broader trend remains positive and markets will likely gain from the next session. 'Index is subdued but action is happening in the mid and smallcap stocks,' he said. The Nifty Midcap 100 was up 0.30% while the Nifty Smallcap 100 was half-a-percentage point higher. Echoing a similar sentiment, Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking said Indian markets have been under consolidation for the past 2-3 sessions. He said that monthly expiry is the reason behind today's lackluster trade and the long term trend remains positive. Tariff impact Amid ongoing trade negotiations between India and the U.S., the impact of a Federal court blocking Trump's tariff decisions will have a limited impact on India, two experts said. "India was comparatively less impacted than its Asian peers from the outset, as the higher tariff rates were primarily imposed on other countries. Furthermore, news of favorable trade discussions between the U.S. and India helped ease concerns about a significant impact on Indian exports to the U.S. These factors may explain why Indian markets have not shown any major reaction to the recent U.S. court ruling on tariffs," Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President - Research at Religare Broking said. The Indian markets are in a consolidation phase, said Aamar Deo Singh, Senior Vice President-Equity, Commodity & Currency at Angel One opining that the U.S. federal court's decision will have a limited impact on India. 'We still have to set-up manufacturing capabilities to first come to the level where we become large exporters,' he added. Sectoral winner The metal sector held its ground firmly on the D-Street, with the Nifty Metal index jumping by 1.5%. Barring APL Apollo Tubes, the other 14 stocks were trading in the green, jumping up to 10%. Lloyds Metals And Energy, Jindal Stainless, Hindustan Zinc, Jindal Steel & Power, Tata Steel, NMDC, Hindustan Copper, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), JSW Steel, Adani Enterprises, National Aluminium Company (NALCO) and Hindalco Industries were up between 3% and 0.12%. Welspun was the top gainer, jumping by 10% in the day's trade. The company had announced its earnings on Wednesday where the company reported 143% surge in its Q4FY25 net profit. SAIL , too, reported its earnings on Wednesday, reporting an 11% growth in its Q4 PAT. Court verdict A three-judge panel of the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump overstepped his authority when he invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to declare a national emergency and justify the sweeping tariffs. The tariffs overturned decades of US trade policy, disrupted global commerce, rattled financial markets and raised the risk of higher prices and recession in the United States and around the world. Also Read: Turnaround stocks: IFCI, Shree Renuka Sugars among six BSE 500 stocks to swing to profit in Q4 (Inputs from Agencies)
Economic Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Fear gauge India VIX spikes 8% in a week. Here are 3 tips to avoid a crash
India VIX has spiked over 8% in the past week, with its impact clearly visible on Dalal Street on Tuesday. Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President of Equity Research (Technical and Derivatives) at Centrum Broking, observed that market volatility has remained high over the last two to three sessions, with the India VIX climbing from about 15 to 19. He explained that this spike is largely due to a significant buildup of call writing positions, which is capping any short-covering attempts and establishing a firm resistance around the 25,000 mark. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads What is leading to volatile trade? 3 things that investors should do: India's fear gauge, the India VIX , has surged over 8% in the past week, and the impact was evident on Dalal Street on Tuesday as benchmark indices swung wildly. Selling pressure in auto, IT, and financial stocks added to the volatility ahead of the monthly expiry on Thursday. The VIX jumped nearly 6% during the session, hitting a high of 19.06, as the Nifty moved within a 300-point range and the BSE Sensex fluctuated over 1,100 points between its intraday high and on the day's action, Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking said that volatility in the markets has been quite high over the past 2-3 sessions, with India VIX moving from levels around 15 to 19, today. He attributed this to the presence of high concentration of call writers who are preventing any short covering move and creating a strong resistance at 25, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments the market to likely consolidate around the current levels in the near-term. "A sustained rally will happen only when leading indicators suggest revival in earnings growth. Since mutual funds are sitting on sizeable cash any dip will be bought into and high valuations will trigger selling on rallies," he also decoded the current investor mood, saying that there is a slow accumulation in rate-sensitive sectors like autos in anticipation of more rate cuts which are almost sure to happen since inflation is trending down. The investors are staying invested by way of SIP with a longer time Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its monetary policy (MPC) next week and the outcome will come on June stabilized after President Donald Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs on April 9, triggering a nearly 9% rally in the Nifty. However, fresh concerns emerged following his recent comments on trade negotiations with the European Union, where he claimed the talks were going "nowhere" and threatened to impose a 50% tariff, though he later deferred the decision from June to July. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump also warned of a potential 25% tariff on smartphone makers like Apple and Samsung if they continue selling devices in the U.S. that are manufactured yields are up amid current uncertainties and investors seem to be booking profit after the recent rally in Indian equities and moving to less risky assets, Aamar Deo Singh, Senior Vice President-Equity, Commodity & Currency at Angel One Read: Bitter-sweet ride: 10 sugar stocks outperform Nifty with up to 77% returns, but 18 sink as much as 36% 1) Avoid aggressive bets on index futures & options (F&O), including Nifty and Bank Nifty, Jain said.2) Adopt a stock specific approach and use corrections as a buying opportunity, Jain of Centrum Broking said.3) Angel One's Deo advises investors to buy in small tranches with a long-term horizon. He suggests sector diversification with trusted names like HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL).(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Fear gauge India VIX spikes 8% in a week. Here are 3 tips to avoid a crash
India's fear gauge, the India VIX , has surged over 8% in the past week, and the impact was evident on Dalal Street on Tuesday as benchmark indices swung wildly. Selling pressure in auto, IT, and financial stocks added to the volatility ahead of the monthly expiry on Thursday. The VIX jumped nearly 6% during the session, hitting a high of 19.06, as the Nifty moved within a 300-point range and the BSE Sensex fluctuated over 1,100 points between its intraday high and low. Commenting on the day's action, Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking said that volatility in the markets has been quite high over the past 2-3 sessions, with India VIX moving from levels around 15 to 19, today. He attributed this to the presence of high concentration of call writers who are preventing any short covering move and creating a strong resistance at 25,000. Analyst VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments the market to likely consolidate around the current levels in the near-term. "A sustained rally will happen only when leading indicators suggest revival in earnings growth. Since mutual funds are sitting on sizeable cash any dip will be bought into and high valuations will trigger selling on rallies," he added. Vijayakumar also decoded the current investor mood, saying that there is a slow accumulation in rate-sensitive sectors like autos in anticipation of more rate cuts which are almost sure to happen since inflation is trending down. The investors are staying invested by way of SIP with a longer time horizon. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its monetary policy (MPC) next week and the outcome will come on June 6. What is leading to volatile trade? Markets stabilized after President Donald Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs on April 9, triggering a nearly 9% rally in the Nifty. However, fresh concerns emerged following his recent comments on trade negotiations with the European Union, where he claimed the talks were going "nowhere" and threatened to impose a 50% tariff, though he later deferred the decision from June to July. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump also warned of a potential 25% tariff on smartphone makers like Apple and Samsung if they continue selling devices in the U.S. that are manufactured overseas. US yields are up amid current uncertainties and investors seem to be booking profit after the recent rally in Indian equities and moving to less risky assets, Aamar Deo Singh, Senior Vice President-Equity, Commodity & Currency at Angel One opined. Also Read: Bitter-sweet ride: 10 sugar stocks outperform Nifty with up to 77% returns, but 18 sink as much as 36% 4 things that investors should do: 1) Avoid aggressive bets on index futures & options (F&O), including Nifty and Bank Nifty, Jain said. 2) Adopt a stock specific approach and use corrections as a buying opportunity, Jain of Centrum Broking said. 3) Angel One's Deo advises investors to buy in small tranches with a long-term horizon. He suggests sector diversification with trusted names like HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL).
